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Hurricane Florence

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Some of the tracks could take Florance over the hot waters of the Gulf. This one could run.  

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There's no way Florence is entering the Gulf of Mexico. Perhaps you're referring to the Gulf Stream.

A coastal stall would be bad at the best of times but considering that the Carolinas have just had an exceptionally wet summer (the wettest on record in places) it doesn't bear thinking about right now. Maybe this will also reduce the effect of dry air on Florence as she approaches land but I can't possibly say.

 

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No, I really meant the Gulf of Mexico. Some of the outliers track her South West, maybe not as a hurricane but as a system that could erupt again over warm water. I don't think it should be ruled out yet until the spreads become a little less chaotic. 

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Ec drops slp to 938 mb this evening before it slowly rises into 950’s as it approaches the coast. crucial frames now to see how the stall is handled 

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7 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

My personal opinion is that Florence will move further inland than forecast due to underdevelopment of 94L in the GOM creating a larger weakness.

If it does then it might actually weaken quicker, not giving such a pasting over a prolonged period as its forecasted to do at the moment.

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24 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec drops slp to 938 mb this evening before it slowly rises into 950’s as it approaches the coast. crucial frames now to see how the stall is handled 

Looks pretty similar to last night's runs. Actually worse, the winds even stronger for longer. 

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9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Looks pretty similar to last night's runs. Actually worse, the winds even stronger for longer. 

still think the issue is flooding and each run seems to be reducing how far inland the heaviest rains get and the ridiculous amounts become more isolated. with the lack of steering, I guess it’s feasible that each new run could come up with a larger variation on the theme. the current trend of Florence stalling just off the coast and drifting sw is a better solution than a day or so ago looked although this assumes that the entire coastal strip of South Carolina and half of n Carolina can cope with a foot or so of rainfall 

 

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Sorry went to bed but here are the the adt Dvorak as well. 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt06L.html

 

raw t dropped when I went to sleep , recon came in and looking at loops she ingested a lot of dry air.

that has now mixed out at t numbers are increasing again Back to 6.2. 

Recon has been very bad so far roughly every 12 hrs. I know that some have been cancelled due to other issues but for one of the largest hurricanes hitting the east coast in years it’s a shame they this level of lack of funding and resources. 

Some winds. Sustained 3 hr gusts as they will cause the damage they are very bad for over qtr of a million people. 

The storm surge will be huge for a storm sitting off the coast. This is one of the biggest shiping areas and the docks and any boats that don’t leave could well be destroyed  leading to a loss of a lot of industry. 

Rain will be a major issue and from experience they are pretty rubbish at predicting it even 24 hrs out as outflow and bands just won’t be placed. Forecasts to this point will be very generic imho. 

C4A6B971-B4B0-4A8F-BFC1-775024DEB218.jpeg

3513C018-C3A6-47E8-A8B2-489976D83646.png

3829036F-E994-4493-B8E5-91379C909D20.png

C77FF9E1-DA0C-434E-9E1E-FBE4D6FAA09B.png

0EC8AE23-9119-49FC-8408-977C5F2063DF.png

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Overnight EPS now developing less of a staller ( still slow moving ) however instead of recurving North - the strength of the high now drives the system SW after landfall-

A second movement over water into the GOM cannot be ruled out but its still an outside chance...

9258E009-676F-43C3-9271-9126A81F8C4D.thumb.jpeg.b7ffa5f9d77e0d8e8ca79709c034de77.jpeg

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Spare a thought  for super typhoon mangkhut,makes Florence look tame by comparison,the former has sustained  winds of 160 mph 🤤

Edited by Mokidugway
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54 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Size comparison 

Dm23AQdUYAAcyg1.jpg

Yes, the typhoon is much stronger and will not lose speed while Florence although a cat 4 now will lose intensity due to the interaction with the continent once she stalls. By the time she makes landfall she will probably be a cat 2.

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#Florence "Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and significant river flooding is likely over portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states from late this week into early next week. Life-threatening storm surge. Damaging hurricane-force winds " NHC 

Roy Cooper NC and Henry McMaster SC on twitter  @NCEmergency   @SCEMD State emergency feeds 

1209flor.png

1209metdeskflo.png

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Just looking at the Avalon pier webcam in Kill Devil Hills and the waves and swell are already notable. A moderate breeze is blowing on shore at the moment.

Edited by Had Worse

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watching this at the moment ,somebody shared the link earlier , seems quite  windy 

 

Edited by milkmaid

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The International Space Station went straight over Florence around 45/50 minutes ago. 

You can view it Live on YouTube and rewind back to when it went over by dragging the red bar with you mouse curser or finger on mobile back to around -45/50 minutes ago as of now (1.31pm UK) and let it play

Link here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQt2iLKqBbI

Edited by OddSpot
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13 minutes ago, milkmaid said:

Watching this at the moment ,somebody shared the link earlier , 

Its on page 10 with a few others. Definitely breezier than early this morning.

 

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Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 52 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

 

The eye of Florence remains very distinct in infrared satellite imagery this morning. There has been little change to the cloud top temperatures surrounding the eye overnight, however, the overall cloud shield and central dense overcast has become slightly more symmetric. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that was in the hurricane until just after midnight measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 130 kt, and a SFMR wind of 107 kt in the northeast eyewall. A blend of these data and recent subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates supports an initial wind speed of 115 kt. Florence will be moving over sea surface temperatures of around 29C and through an area of low vertical wind shear during the next day or so. These conditions favor some strengthening, but eyewall replacement cycles could cause some fluctuations in intensity during that time. After that time, an increase in southwesterly shear, upwelling, and interaction with land is likely to lead to some weakening, however, Florence is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane as it approaches the coastline. The new NHC intensity forecast is near the higher statistical guidance through 48 hours, then follows the trend of the decay SHIPS model after that time. Florence is moving west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 15 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast or reasoning for the first 36-48 hours, as Florence will continue to be steered west-northwestward to northwestward around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge centered northeast of Bermuda. By late Thursday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to begin building over the east-central United States, which is expected to cause Florence to slow down significantly by 48 hours. The track guidance is in good agreement through the first couple of days of the forecast period, and the NHC track forecast again brings the center of the hurricane very close to the coasts of North and South Carolina within 48 hours. Later in the period, the dynamical model spread increases but most of the guidance has continued its southward shift, and now take Florence southwestward near the coast of South Carolina by day 4. The NHC track has been adjusted southward at days 4 and 5, and is a little north of the consensus out of respect for continuity, however, the GFS, ECMWF, and the ECMWF ensemble mean is south of the NHC track forecast, and additional southward adjustment may be warranted in future advisories.

It is important for users to realize that significant impacts extend well away from the center of Florence, and serious hazards such as a dangerous storm surge and flooding rains will cover a large area regardless of exactly where the center moves. 

Edited by Nick L

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36 minutes ago, milkmaid said:

watching this at the moment ,somebody shared the link earlier , seems quite  windy 

 

White horses starting to appear on the tops of the ocean. Flag now very straight.

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31 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 52 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

Hi HW.

Could you paste info in plain text rather than rich text?! It should give you the option when pasting text in to the edit box. 
The text you paste is causing the forum to break, and push text right off of the side of the screen A nightmare while trying to read on a mobile phone.

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3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Hi HW.

Could you paste info in plain text rather than rich text?! It should give you the option when pasting text in to the edit box. 
The text you paste is causing the forum to break, and push text right off of the side of the screen A nightmare while trying to read on a mobile phone.

Point well made! I've fixed the post in question.

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