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itsnowjoke

North West Regional thread 01/09/18 Onwards......

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3 hours ago, Snow free zone said:

To answer your question .... yes, yes it is.

Last winter we missed 99% of all the ppn from the east, the stalling fronts coming up from the south all get as far as chorley/leyland stop and fizzle. I remember going out for a drink with a few friends last yr in Euxton there were piles of snow at the sides of the roads ... thats only 10 miles at most south of here. 

There are several sat photos that show the apparent shadow effect we are under for snow here .... NW/W for the ppn but it has to be cold enough, on the rare occasions it is we can get a bit of a covering here ... but more often than not its a wintry mix at best. 

 

 

Yes - I well  remember that the stalling fronts grinding to a halt at Charnock Richard........

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@Weather-history Rea your post earlier which I can’t quote for some reason on my end: I remember 29/01/15 very well. I got 2 cms from an intense streamer that morning. As you say the flow is slack like it was then and 850s are pretty much the same.  

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 Don’t know what the fuss is about the Met text forecast; it’s exactly what I was expecting. It’s almost a carbon copy of every text forecast that you will see in this set up down the years. The intriguing headline and then slightly vague forecast with copious mentions of wintry showers and not much else. I wouldn’t let it sway your opinion either way as to what could happen. It’s going to be a nowcast job. 

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3 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 Don’t know what the fuss is about the Met text forecast; it’s exactly what I was expecting. It’s almost a carbon copy of every text forecast that you will see in this set up down the years. The intriguing headline and then slightly vague forecast with copious mentions of wintry showers and not much else. I wouldn’t let it sway your opinion either way as to what could happen. It’s going to be a nowcast job. 

It's something to talk about while we wait for something more interesting to talk about. If only that front would hurry a bit.

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I can see the likes of Southport and Crosby, even Blackpool doing very well out of this. I’ll be surprised if they don’t have a covering tomorrow. Shower activity along these areas looks almost consistent 

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BTW the GFS 12Z looks amazing especially next Tuesday. It would be like tomorrow but with colder air. We remain in sub 528 dam air from T120 to  lo-res. 

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Snowing in Donegal on back edge of the front... currently it’s 2c here... breeze picking up slightly...feels chillier than earlier

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I'm back from my little Slumber. Like I said I'm back when the models are good now. It is showing widespread snow a week from now.

Round 2 anyone?

 

 

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1 minute ago, WillinGlossop said:

Snowing in Donegal on back edge of the front... currently it’s 2c here... breeze picking up slightly...feels chillier than earlier

Easy to see why Met O are going for 2/300m. You’re at 2C, I’m at 5.0C

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Good News:

image.png.33d36f3a7ca26fe9ce71669d539586d8.png

Majority of the lowlands in the pink now.

Bring it On!! :oldsmile:

 

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Edited by pip22

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3 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Easy to see why Met O are going for 2/300m. You’re at 2C, I’m at 5.0C

Updated euro4 has lots of showers again tonight/tomorrow/ Wednesday... still going for 20-40cm over hills and upto 20cm lower down...I suppose we can get some ‘torrential snow’ with thunder etc...has happened here before... not ruling anything out but hopefully some nice snowfall over the next 36-48hrs....

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Just now, WillinGlossop said:

Updated euro4 has lots of showers again tonight/tomorrow/ Wednesday... still going for 20-40cm over hills and upto 20cm lower down...I suppose we can get some ‘torrential snow’ with thunder etc...has happened here before... not ruling anything out but hopefully some nice snowfall over the next 36-48hrs....

Certainly the potential. But from experience, it’s hail all the way up until around Manchester. Then it’s snow all the way

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1 minute ago, WillinGlossop said:

Updated euro4 has lots of showers again tonight/tomorrow/ Wednesday... still going for 20-40cm over hills and upto 20cm lower down...I suppose we can get some ‘torrential snow’ with thunder etc...has happened here before... not ruling anything out but hopefully some nice snowfall over the next 36-48hrs....

Yes please 😂😂

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Latest automated forecast for S Cheshire... 

Screenshot_20190121-173709.thumb.png.aa2eab492d521fd037f0f77061839f70.png

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Latest TAF for Liverpool; Nothing much changed. 

The report was made 33 minutes ago, at 17:03UTC

Forecast valid from 21 at 18 UTC to 22 at 18 UTC

Wind 13 kt from the South

Visibility 10 km or more

Scattered clouds at a height of 3000 ft

Probability 30% :

Temporary
from 21 at 18 UTC to 21 at 20 UTC

Visibility: 7000 m

light rain

Temporary
from 21 at 20 UTC to 21 at 23 UTC

Visibility: 5000 m

Broken clouds at a height of 1000 ft

rain

Probability 40% :

Temporary
from 21 at 20 UTC to 21 at 23 UTC

Wind 16 kt from the South with gusts up to 26kt

Visibility: 3500 m

Broken clouds at a height of 700 ft

heavy rain

Becoming
from 21 at 21 UTC to 21 at 24 UTC

Wind 5 kt from variable directions

Temporary
from 21 at 23 UTC to 22 at 10 UTC

Visibility: 5000 m

Broken clouds at a height of 1400 ft 
Broken clouds at a height of 2000 ft, Cumulonimbus.

rain showers

Probability 30% :

Temporary
from 21 at 23 UTC to 22 at 01 UTC

Broken clouds at a height of 400 ft

Becoming
from 22 at 00 UTC to 22 at 03 UTC

Wind 12 kt from the West

Probability 30% :

Temporary
from 22 at 01 UTC to 22 at 10 UTC

Wind 15 kt from the West/Northwest with gusts up to 27 kt

Visibility: 2000 m

Broken clouds at a height of 900 ft

heavy rain showers, snow, showers, small hail or snow pellets

Temporary
from 22 at 10 UTC to 22 at 18 UTC

Visibility: 3000 m

Broken clouds at a height of 1000 ft 
Broken clouds at a height of 2000 ft, Cumulonimbus.

rain showers, snow

Probability 30% :

Temporary
from 22 at 10 UTC to 22 at 18 UTC

Wind 5 kt from variable directions

Visibility: 1200 m

Broken clouds at a height of 400 ft

snow showers, (heavy) showers, small hail or snow pellets

 

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Latest automated forecast for S Cheshire... 

Screenshot_20190121-173709.thumb.png.aa2eab492d521fd037f0f77061839f70.png

Brilliant crewe!!

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Brilliant crewe!!

I will keep my fingers crossed and pray hard to the weather Gods

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Latest automated forecast for S Cheshire... 

Screenshot_20190121-173709.thumb.png.aa2eab492d521fd037f0f77061839f70.png

Officially getting excited now, I'm a few miles up the road and getting a similar forecast. Snow hat at the ready!

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Those automated forecasts change every hour. They’ve been changing from rain to snow all day today. Isn’t worth getting excited over those. 

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3 minutes ago, wrightc23 said:

Officially getting excited now, I'm a few miles up the road and getting a similar forecast. Snow hat at the ready!

Yes and euro4 is simply brilliant...

Surely there will be upgrades in the warnings .. or do they only update through the day, not sure..

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13 minutes ago, pip22 said:

Good News:

image.png.33d36f3a7ca26fe9ce71669d539586d8.png

Majority of the lowlands in the pink now.

Bring it On!! :oldsmile:

 

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Excellent mate!!!

Enlarged it a bit for when ppl click it 👍

19012303_2_2112.thumb.gif.78573d7210d4d31e6bc52b6ae329053d.gif

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I am going to go for rain all the way for St Helens and sleet tomorrow evening. I don't feel this is the one for low level areas.

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