North West Regional thread 01/09/18 Onwards......

[dodge]

Do those apps just automatically go off temps only.. with no other factors I.e dewpoints,  intensity,  evaporative cooling, wind etc... it just seems to be 3c =rain,  2c=sleet m, 1c=snow

[Had Worse]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

They usually update their warnings for future events later in the morning or afternoon. They never update warnings at 4am unless something is happening there and then

There was an Amber warning that we were in a few years ago that was a non event as the snow missed us.

[Spah1]

My worst fears are being realised. 

Thursdays front may not reach us. 

Edited January 28, 2019 by Spah1

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, dodgeredee said:

Do those apps just automatically go off temps only.. with no other factors I.e dewpoints,  intensity,  evaporative cooling, wind etc... it just seems to be 3c =rain,  2c=sleet m, 1c=snow

The apps are generally crap.

Complete waste of time.

[Snow free zone]

Tomorrow not looking great for the ususl suspects west of the M6. All forecasts currently pointing to cold rain/sleety mix. Further inland snow chances look significantly better. I'd expect modifications to the northwards push of that front on thurs as well. 

[Spah1]

ECM has Thursday’s front fizzling out. 

We want GFS !!!!!

don’t care if it reaches and it’s rain. 

Just don’t want another Midlands snow fest while we watch . 

[Had Worse]

Current Beeb breakfast weather predictions

 

[dodge]

BBC look like going with GFS or at least one of the models which has Thursday's band much further north giving the North West a snow day - but Thursday still up for grabs could change again.  Still have a feeling it will be further south...or at least it will be on it's last legs by the time it reaches our parts.

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Current Beeb breakfast weather predictions

 

Seen that many times before and it always seems to be our nemesis Carol on a Monday showing us a great event at the end of the week only for it to slowly downgrade as each day passes.

If she still shows this tomorrow then confidence will increase.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Seen that many times before and it always seems to be our nemesis Carol on a Monday showing us a great event at the end of the week only for it to slowly downgrade as each day passes.

If she still shows this tomorrow then confidence will increase.

Tomorrow looking good''!!

[Chris.R]

 Still looking really good. I’ve never expected anything from the cold front tomorrow; the cold 850s come afterwards and DPs are positive until it passes. Expecting rain/ice pellets until late afternoon. 

[More Runs Needed]

10 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

ECM has Thursday’s front fizzling out. 

We want GFS !!!!!

don’t care if it reaches and it’s rain. 

Just don’t want another Midlands snow fest while we watch . 

Is the ECM the only model showing Thursdays front running out of steam?

[Had Worse]

4 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Seen that many times before and it always seems to be our nemesis Carol on a Monday showing us a great event at the end of the week only for it to slowly downgrade as each day passes.

If she still shows this tomorrow then confidence will increase.

Ill post the same for tomorrow so that we can look back at what we could have had.

[Day 10]

4 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Ill post the same for tomorrow so that we can look back at what we could have had.

Good idea let's see how each beeb breakfast forecast looks up to Thurs, everything crossed it holds.

Edit: Save them too.

Edited January 28, 2019 by Day 10

[Day 10]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Tomorrow looking good''!!

It looks great away from the coast mate, I may do better in the form of showers later on.

[Chris.R]

Just now, Day 10 said:

It looks great away from the coast mate, I may do better in the form of showers later on.

 Keep the faith still all going to plan as far as  I can see. 

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

 Keep the faith still all going to plan as far as  I can see. 

Perhaps it's just Monday morning blues, but not getting carried away. Thurs looks a far better prospect for us and everyone else.

Right - Work

[Iceaxecrampon]

Confused.

Is Tomorrow good or not good!?!!!

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Perhaps it's just Monday morning blues, but not getting carried away. Thurs looks a far better prospect for us and everyone else.

Right - Work

Thurs a bust according to Steve, not expected to reach my location, kinda agree, often dosen't track far north

[Iceaxecrampon]

11 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Good idea let's see how each beeb breakfast forecast looks up to Thurs, everything crossed it holds.

Edit: Save them too.

Class!

We have all the alleged best powerful computing models and data at our disposal and it all boils down to good old Auntie Beeb and nowcasting!

LOL

[Joe Bloggs]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Just seen Joes post, yes, i think there could be snow showers following on from the front tomorrow evening so those that miss out will hopefully hit some beefy snow showers as by 6pm-9pm dews are - across pretty much all the region.

The BBC aren’t interested in any showers. The GFS charts most certainly are.. especially by 3am/6am Wednesday. 

We’ll see, 

[Joe Bloggs]

Given the wind direction tomorrow night, this is the sort of thing I expect to see. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAUK00_54_43.png

[Weather-history]

5 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

The BBC aren’t interested in any showers. The GFS charts most certainly are.. especially by 3am/6am Wednesday. 

We’ll see, 

Got to be said the Met Office regional text  is going for dry and sunny on Wednesday but GFS 0z preciptation charts suggest not. Yet the Met Office symbol charts suggest something Wednesday morning.

[Iceaxecrampon]

8 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Given the wind direction tomorrow night, this is the sort of thing I expect to see. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPARAUK00_54_43.png

[frosty ground]

That's the best its been since Tuesday came into view.