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Is it time we all chipped in for a snow machine?

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3 minutes ago, MKN said:

It looks worse when you compare it to the charts from a couple days a go. 🤨

Screenshot_20190130_093120.jpg

iconeu_uk1-45-58-0.png

Thate not even great for birmingham/coventry area!! What a disappointment

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Well for what its worth  GFS  slightly more North   Although not by much

image.thumb.png.cda865108e2ae7e85021306673b8f2ea.pngimage.thumb.png.794ddae2a809ee4427a83628b9a00dcf.png       

Edited by weirpig

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9 minutes ago, MKN said:

It looks worse when you compare it to the charts from a couple days a go. 🤨

Screenshot_20190130_093120.jpg

iconeu_uk1-45-58-0.png

 

Does anyone smarter than me know why models so frequently downgrade closer to T0 and very rarely upgrade ?

Edited by kmanmx

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Just now, kmanmx said:

 

Does anyone smarter than me know why models so frequently downgrades closer to T0 and very rarely upgrade ?

To be fair it has upgraded.  Just not for us   South Coast is much better

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1 minute ago, weirpig said:

To be fair it has upgraded.  Just not for us   South Coast is much better

I guess, but the overall intensity seems significantly reduced. A weaker system etc, which seems to be par for the course as you approach T0, anecdotally at least,

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Being in West Oxfordshire I feel like I'm sat in the sweet spot because unless the shift North or South is extreme I should be seeing some of the white stuff tomorrow evening regardless. I'm sure my little gloat will be punished severely when this all goes jelly tots up over the next 24hrs lol.

I noticed that with this mornings ICON the pivot effect is not quite as favourable and it all fizzles out southwards quickly. Yesterday the pivot was giving a second shot at snow as it cleared south.

Anyway fingers crossed for a decent outcome for all!

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this is where the access to so much information is annoying, constant changes from run to run a minute to minute in some cases like the more southerly ICON to slightly more northerly GFS. Its no wonder forecasts are difficult.

Personally I'm happy to wait to see actually what happens at this point not obsessing over each model (though I say that im still bloody looking aint i lol)

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Hi Res  GFS    More of a central Midlands event on this run   Then slightly more North

 

image.thumb.png.feaf06cf02ee8d1032bcef1483298087.png     image.thumb.png.d61c0c65b973f371fbf483939b0b1056.png

Edited by weirpig

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Yep as per...............snow chances slipping away for Warwick as we get closer........😢

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Not a massive change as expected. Will let you decide. Would be good to overlay the images somehow. 

00z the 06z at what is now +42

48-574UK.gif

42-574UK.gif

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2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Hi Res  GFS    More of a central Midlands event on this run   Then slightly more North

 

image.thumb.png.feaf06cf02ee8d1032bcef1483298087.png     image.thumb.png.d61c0c65b973f371fbf483939b0b1056.png

BANK!!

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1 minute ago, Diamond Joe said:

BANK!!

Lol  Goes for About 10cm  just to he West of Brum.  Slightly more south around 15ish 

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Looking good for Northants

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Unfortunately, the GFS is always the most progressive and still delivers little to the North West Midlands.

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A few flakes at breakfast time today, from the last gasp of a Cheshire Gap shower that just about made it here before expiring. Mostly clear overnight though (min -2.5 °C). Now a bright, cold mid-morning (+0.2 °C).

Thursday night still looking moderately interesting here, though any further shift N/E may put us in rain territory. MetO text forecast for the W Midlands this morning has rowed back a little from simply predicting snow and now says "Cloudier and windier in the afternoon, with outbreaks of sleet and possibly some disruptive snow spreading in from the south by evening."

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40 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

DWW..

Nice to see you are still positive.

I would like to back you up on this posting.

I would,  even more so,  go back to 10th  Dec 2017. It is more relevant as it involved that great slider for us (15cms in and around S Bham -  country sweet spot) whereby a slider was involved.

Models where equally undecided about the track for 3 - 5 days before hand, but ICON stuck to more of a central path.(varying by 100 miles North and South as a max).

Come the high resolution models (48hrs) and they were varying around the South coast to the North Mids.

The generalised models all plunged southwards,  but ICON hung on to the south Mids..

I expected hardly anything here on the morning (Sunday, I think), but got up early to watch the Test Match. Just in time for the snow to start. It rapidly gained in intensity and we had snow for 24 hrs. Further north (Keele)  had only a dusting. Further south Bristol had rain.

Now it is not quite the same situation  but similar,  and ICON has been the most 'stable'. The high res (inside 48hrs) are in general showing more snow for us, than the generalised models(which are all plunging south!).ECM is the best for our area, One never knows,and I think the models do not either.

Time will tell what happens tomorrow. I have still not lost all hope. It will come down to a 'lamp post' and 6hour situation forecasting job.

A small strengthening of the low will drive it on a more North east path, a slight disturbance in front of the main low (shown on some runs) will cause the front to pivot over us..   

MIA:oldgood:🤔:cold:

   yes December 10, 2017 was excellent for here in Rome however this winter has been a winter of letdowns what’s more we always for what ever reason managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory 

 

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My Met Office app has snow symbols for Sunday.

Anyone fancy chasing that one instead? 😂

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MMM Hirlam      shift  North

image.thumb.png.23619fe9a6e935c7c8fb66281bae9ae0.png  image.thumb.png.dbb018b8679dcaa45e3afa19464c1ac7.png  

image.png

Edited by weirpig

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2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

MMM Hirlam      shift  

image.thumb.png.23619fe9a6e935c7c8fb66281bae9ae0.png  image.thumb.png.dbb018b8679dcaa45e3afa19464c1ac7.png  

image.png

Shift south or north?

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3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

My Met Office app has snow symbols for Sunday.

Anyone fancy chasing that one instead? 😂

no mate tge only thing im chasing is tge dog gonna nip up to mier heath instead 2 miles from longton but 250asl enough snow to enjoy and no headaches chasin crap apps and crap forcasts 

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2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

MMM Hirlam      shift  North

image.thumb.png.23619fe9a6e935c7c8fb66281bae9ae0.png  image.thumb.png.dbb018b8679dcaa45e3afa19464c1ac7.png  

image.png

BANK!

How good is the Hirlam though? I see people bigging it up but I rarely look at it.

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Why can't Met Office post their high res models publicly, selfish buggers 😞 

 

I do get why really. I'd just really like to have access to them..

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Just now, MattStoke said:

BANK!

How good is the Hirlam though? I see people bigging it up but I rarely look at it.

It was my choice of model last year  for snow.  of course it may be wrong this time  but is certainly the more northerly of the models so far 

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