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Nick F

Storm & Convective Discussion - 7th August Onwards

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Proper storm with Thunder and lightning in London.

 

It's January....

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7 hours ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Proper storm with Thunder and lightning in London.

 

It's January....

Make the most of it... I'm moving to the big smoke next month, along with my big storm shield

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WOO HOO!! The first thunder of 2019! ⛈️:yahoo:

Yep... I can confirm thunder and lightning on the Dee Estuary.

By the looks of it just a one flash, one bang wonder... But I ain’t complaining. :oldgrin:

13E3AA28-9A43-4325-A6BC-1D91A0D5E534.png

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 31 Jan 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 01 Feb 2019

ISSUED 21:23 UTC Wed 30 Jan 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Behind the frontal precipitation across southern Britain, an upper low and cold mid-levels will overspread the relatively warm waters of the English Channel / Celtic Sea, generating a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Scattered showers are expected to develop as a result of this increased instability, primarily during Thursday evening and night. Most showers will remain offshore, parts of Cornwall, Devon and SW Ireland having the greatest risk, but will be capable of producing a few sporadic lightning strikes.

Isolated lightning strikes will also be possible close to northern Scotland where showers/showery outbreaks of rain occur, with marginal instability.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-01-31

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 05 Feb 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 06 Feb 2019

ISSUED 14:42 UTC Tue 05 Feb 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Cold mid-levels, associated with the approaching Atlantic upper trough, will overspread relatively warm seas during Tuesday night, steepening lapse rates and generating a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Scattered showers will affect exposed coastal areas in the far west, occasionally driven further inland by strong southwesterly steering winds. The combination of marginal CAPE and strong shear should allow a few sporadic lightning strikes.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-02-05

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 06 Feb 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 07 Feb 2019

ISSUED 20:35 UTC Tue 05 Feb 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A complex pattern will exist on Wednesday, with a succession of shortwaves running northeastwards across the British Isles on the forward side of the larger-scale Atlantic upper trough. This will bring renewed pulses of increasingly dynamic rainfall, interspersed with more convective, showery precipitation. Some lightning strikes will be possible, given a few hundred J/kg CAPE and notable shear at times.

Some interest is given to the developing frontal system that moves across Ireland during the evening hours, and then Britain on Wednesday night - given the upper forcing, weak CAPE, marked low-level wind veer and reasonable shear, some line segments are possible along the trailing cold front capable of strong gusts of wind and brief spells of heavy rain. The main overlap of favourable ingredients primarily occurs over the Celtic Sea during the evening hours, before weakening as the cold front moves inland. However, depending on the eventual shape of the cold front, this may also affect portions of SE Ireland, and perhaps extreme western extremities of England and Wales.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-02-06

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Well, just seen this pop up in my Youtube Subscriptions, great video from probably the best storm-chasing video maker on YT, even though i've not seen a thunderstorm since 2016, i am now officially hyped for summer 2019! 

 

 

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 07 Feb 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 08 Feb 2019

ISSUED 17:38 UTC Wed 06 Feb 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Isolated lightning strikes will be possible associated with scattered showers generated by cold air aloft atop relatively warm seas, these drifting further inland courtesy of steering winds. However, heights will tend to rise from the west through the forecast period, reducing instability / depth of convection with time, and so whatever limited lightning activity there may be will tend to become increasingly isolated in nature as time goes on and largely restricted to NW Scotland.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-02-07

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 08 Feb 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 09 Feb 2019

ISSUED 16:56 UTC Thu 07 Feb 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper ridge initially over the British Isles on Friday will retreat eastwards as an upper low slides across NW Scotland. At the surface, a deepening area of low pressure approaching NW Scotland will push a frontal system across the British Isles. The cold front will clear Ireland by mid-morning, and then migrating eastwards across Britain during the remainder of Friday daytime. An overlap of upper forcing, weak CAPE and strong shear suggests that line segments may develop, capable of producing a brief period of heavy rain and squally winds - this risk generally south of a line from Merseyside-The Wash, where an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

The post-frontal environment is then characterised by cold mid-levels atop relatively warm seas, developing numerous showers over open waters which will move well-inland courtesy of strong steering winds. Some sporadic lightning, gusty winds and small hail will be possible from these showers, hence a broad LOW threat level.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-02-08

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 09 Feb 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 10 Feb 2019

ISSUED 21:36 UTC Fri 08 Feb 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A messy picture will dominate across the British Isles on Saturday, with a near-stationary occlusion lingering across northern Scotland bringing outbreaks of rain here for much of the forecast period. Also, on Saturday night a frontal wave will bring a renewed pulse of rain across southern Britain. Away from these features, some scope for deep convection to occur, though generally limited somewhat in depth, especially across southern parts. 

Nonetheless, a few sporadic lightning strikes will be possible associated with showers developing over seas, then drifting farther inland courtesy of the westerly steering flow. The greatest risk of lightning, albeit still low, is over western Ireland during Saturday daytime, and then increasingly across the Celtic Sea on Saturday night into Sunday morning as the sharpening upper trough approaches from the Atlantic. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-02-09

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Just had overhead lightning and thunder from a passing hailstorm. Very unusual for this time of year but exciting nonetheless.

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 15 Feb 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 16 Feb 2019

ISSUED 20:19 UTC Fri 15 Feb 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

One or two isolated lightning strikes may be possible later Friday evening into the early hours of Saturday, as convection occurs beneath a pronounced shortwave running northeastwards across western Scotland.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-02-15

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 16 Feb 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 17 Feb 2019

ISSUED 20:27 UTC Fri 15 Feb 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

On Saturday night an active cold front will push into western Ireland from the Atlantic, weakening as it does so. While instability will be weak, the strongly-sheared environment may encourage some embedded line convection to occur along the front.

The post-frontal environment late on Saturday night is then characterised by cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates. Showers are likely to affect far W / SW Ireland late in the night, though probably limited somewhat in depth given the real cold pool aloft will still be largely over the Atlantic during this forecast period. Nonetheless, strong shear may be enough to compensate to produce one or two isolated lightning strikes.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-02-16

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 17 Feb 2019 - 05:59 UTC Mon 18 Feb 2019

ISSUED 19:12 UTC Sat 16 Feb 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A weakening cold front will move eastwards from Ireland to western Britain during Sunday. Behind the cold front, cold air aloft overspreads relatively warm seas, and diurnal heating inland, to generate a few hundred J/kg CAPE.

Scattered showers will develop in response, perhaps with a few sporadic lightning strikes. While instability will be somewhat limited, the strongly-sheared environment with slight backing of the low-level winds may allow some organisation of the strongest cells, perhaps even with some supercell-like characteristics - particular attention is given to W / NW Ireland.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-02-17

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 18 Feb 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 19 Feb 2019

ISSUED 20:23 UTC Sun 17 Feb 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A cold front will tend to straddle SE England for much of Monday daytime, only slowly clearing to the east. Elsewhere, an upper trough will slowly track eastwards across the British Isles, the associated cold air aloft atop relatively warm seas and diurnal heating inland helping to generate a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. Numerous showers will affect Scotland, Ireland and northwest England, perhaps with a few isolated lightning strikes.

Elsewhere, a post-frontal trough is likely to be the focus for a line of showers to develop from NW England - W Wales - Celtic Sea on Monday morning, drifting eastwards across England and Wales through the remainder of Monday daytime. Low-level convergence and diurnal heating may enhance some of these showers during Monday afternoon, from Devon / SE Wales eastwards across the Midlands and central southern England, and into SE England by the evening. Instability is expected to be weak, and convective depth a little limited, but a well-sheared profile may be enough to compensate to produce a few isolated lightning strikes.

Increased ridging aloft from the west will result in a reduced lightning risk by Monday night across all parts of the British Isles.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-02-18

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 28 Feb 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 01 Mar 2019

ISSUED 20:25 UTC Wed 27 Feb 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A small upper low will migrate eastwards across the British Isles on Thursday, the associated cold pool atop relatively warm seas and diurnal heating inland helping to generate a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. Scattered showers and longer spells of showery rain are likely to affect many parts of central and southern Britain, and across Ireland. A few sporadic lightning strikes will be possible, although weak instability and fairly saturated profiles suggests this is unlikely to be widespread enough to warrant a SLGT.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-02-28

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 04 Mar 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 05 Mar 2019

ISSUED 21:42 UTC Sun 03 Mar 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Cold air aloft will spread across the British Isles on Monday, courtesy of a broad upper trough. This will lead to notably steep lapse rates, and a couple hundred J/kg CAPE in response to both SSTs and diurnal heating inland. A series of shortwaves will provide the focus for bands of showers to develop and drift eastwards with time, capable of producing some sporadic lightning and small hail. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-03-04

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 05 Mar 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 06 Mar 2019

ISSUED 19:58 UTC Mon 04 Mar 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper low west of Scotland will gradually fill and weaken through Tuesday. A slow-moving wrap-around occlusion will be the primary focus for any isolated embedded lightning during daylight hours, with weak instability overlapping strong shear. 

A sharp upper trough will approach from the Atlantic on Tuesday night, drawing most low-level air northwards on its forward side beneath cool air aloft. Behind the main frontal precipitation, elements of embedded convection seem likely during the early hours of Wednesday, arriving from the Southwestern Approaches and creeping up the Irish Sea. Instability is marginal, but given steep mid-level lapse rates, upper forcing and reasonable shear, a few sporadic lightning strikes are possible.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-03-05

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Saw IC lightning on my way down the A3, presumably from one of the channel cells, good to see one so early, but caught me by surprise!

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i just saw two flashes in the sky, in disbelief I went straight to lightning map and presume that was from the cell in the channel right now.

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 Tomorrow looking interesting for us in the west. 

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My eyes are on tomorrow for the possibility of some early in the year convective potential. It is only March and so not a huge amount of CAPE but values in the region of 500 j/kg showing on the WRF and NMM models for northern England especially. This may be slightly overdone as GFS is a little more reserved with this but still quite impressive for so early in the year. Relatively cool air moving in from the north-west over the top of moist, warm air in situ over England is coupled with deep layer shear of up to 15-20 m/s in the areas where CAPE is highest.

CAPE.thumb.png.ac27991e3b63db17b79bac9b88faf957.png    DLS.thumb.png.0ad3a7cab47431d77f50937ecc19b65a.png

Although I am not expecting big summer thunderstorms there is certainly the potential for widespread heavy showers with some thunder and hail, more akin to April showers in March. Best areas on current guidance would likely be across NW England during the late morning and then transferring eastwards across N England through the early to mid afternoon. 

A chance of heavy showers with thunder across other parts too, and I would not be surprised to hear of the odd rumble almost anywhere. However, it is Northern England where my focus is for the chance of a stronger convective cell or two.

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