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Nick F

Storm & Convective Discussion - 7th August Onwards

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Just got caught in a thunderstorm in Wells. Torrential hail and very dark!

image.jpeg

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This probably would’ve looked decent if the sun was still out. 

AAEA86CC-E3B2-4C47-B3D5-AD84796BA665.jpeg

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7 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Just got caught in a thunderstorm in Wells. Torrential hail and very dark!

image.jpeg

guessing you heard a rumble of thunder just now?

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Shame to have missed the storm near Wells given I'm at university now! 

Few nice CB's here out of my window, lucky to be on the top floor in my hall!

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Flashes and rumbles on occasion from the convective band moving East across SE England tonight

Every two or  three minutes here on the Sussex coast.

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Second day in a row a line of showers electrifies after passing here. 😞

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57 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Taken towards Sussex way from Farncombe

46A92C86-2919-419E-A00A-7B81E0D642C3.jpeg

Yup, crazy little storm on the Sussex coast right now, biblical rain and hail, wild gusty winds and several super CC forks and booming thunder!

Best storm since early Summer.

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 20 Nov 2018 - 05:59 UTC Wed 21 Nov 2018

ISSUED 10:24 UTC Tue 20 Nov 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Cold pool atop relatively warm SSTs will generate marginal instability, with widespread showers expected, but limited somewhat in depth. Low-level convergence will be the primary driver in aiding forced ascent, and hence convergence zones will generally be the main areas of interest for any isolated lightning activity. Particular focus is given to the Irish Sea feeding into E Ireland throughout Tuesday and Tuesday night, and also the English Channel - especially this evening and tonight, pushing into southern coastal counties. East Devon into Dorset may be of particular interest late in the night, with showers training over similar areas, perhaps producing some localised flooding (including hail).

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-11-20

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 21 Nov 2018 - 05:59 UTC Thu 22 Nov 2018

ISSUED 21:22 UTC Tue 20 Nov 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper cold pool continues to drift northwestwards, atop relatively warm SSTs. The resultant marginal instability will aid the development of numerous showers over seas, being driven inland by predominantly east or southeasterly steering winds.

Most areas will remain void of lightning activity, but a few isolated strikes will be possible - especially where better forcing from low-level convergence exists. Particular interest may be Dorset and/or east Devon first thing on Wednesday morning, and parts of E / NE Leinster. A dry intrusion forecast to slide NW-wards across the Celtic Sea on Wednesday evening / night may also increase the chances of some sporadic lightning here and into southern Ireland.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-11-21

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Thunderstorms to the east of Salcombe!😀

Seen a few flashes of lightning so far this morning. Reasonably far away though.

Also we've missed the really heavy rain too. So far anyway...

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 23 Nov 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sat 24 Nov 2018

ISSUED 17:15 UTC Fri 23 Nov 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

UPDATE 17:16 UTC Elevated thunderstorms now developing over English Channel, moving into Devon and Dorset. SLGT expanded eastwards to cover this risk through the evening and night

Pulses of deep convection continue to affect SW Britain, S Ireland and adjacent seas, with areas of heavy showers or showery rain capable of producing some sporadic lightning. Given the differences in timing and placement of such convective clusters, it is hard to be specific as to areas at greatest risk of lightning - though in general particular attention is given to the western English Channel, Cornwall and across to the Celtic Sea (especially during Friday daytime). A low-end SLGT has been issued to better highlight this area, but it should be noted that confidence in coverage of lightning is rather low.

Showers may become aligned into narrow bands, with a risk of localised flooding given elements of shower training over similar areas. Some small hail will be possible with the strongest cells.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-11-23

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 28 Nov 2018 - 05:59 UTC Thu 29 Nov 2018

ISSUED 10:20 UTC Wed 28 Nov 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Shallow moist zone and strong shear will encourage some line convection to develop across parts of England and Wales during Wednesday afternoon and evening - but in general such convection will be too shallow for lightning activity, hence no threat areas introduced.

 

Deeper convection (heavy showers) will push into W / SW Ireland during the early hours of Thursday, perhaps with a few isolated lightning strikes given marginal instability and strong shear. Elsewhere, marginal instability in an environment with strong shear and upper forcing may allow some elements of embedded elevated convection to occur over the Celtic Sea / SW England during the early hours of Thursday, associated with the next frontal system arriving from the Atlantic.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-11-28

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 07 Dec 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sat 08 Dec 2018

ISSUED 20:10 UTC Thu 06 Dec 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough will migrate eastwards across the British Isles on Friday. On the forward side, strong shear and forcing will promote elements of line convection on the rear side of the cold front precipitation envelope as it moves across England during the morning hours. Squally winds and heavy rain will be possible locally, but saturated profiles and weak instability suggests the risk of lightning is fairly low (but non-zero). 

The post-frontal environment, already established across Ireland and western Scotland at the beginning of the forecast period, will be characterised by cold mid-levels atop relatively warm SSTs, generating a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Numerous showers will develop over open seas, moving inland on the strong west-turn-northwesterly steering flow. A few isolated lightning strikes and small hail will be possible from the most intense cells. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-12-07

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Brothers just come back across Salisbury plain and reported lightning, Lightningmaps.org seems to agree with him, yet the radar has no records. The shower that I'd expect it to have come from has only just arrived on scene too?

 

Anyone in that area able to confirm?

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22 hours ago, TheFlyingDuck said:

Brothers just come back across Salisbury plain and reported lightning, Lightningmaps.org seems to agree with him, yet the radar has no records. The shower that I'd expect it to have come from has only just arrived on scene too?

  

Anyone in that area able to confirm?

There were a few reports in the south west thread last night suggesting there was something there last night. 

 

Edited by matt111

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 18 Dec 2018 - 05:59 UTC Wed 19 Dec 2018

ISSUED 21:02 UTC Mon 17 Dec 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

At the beginning of the forecast period, an active cold front will be straddling eastern Ireland to the Hebrides. Strong shear and upper forcing will encourage pronounced line segments initially, with locally squally conditions, but as the upper forcing tends to relax with time the line convection will begin to fragment and weaken as it continues to migrate eastwards across the Irish Sea and into western Scotland. That said, some elements of less-pronounced line convection are still expected to persist as the cold front continues to move eastwards across England, Wales and Scotland, but not as intense as earlier in the day.

The post-frontal environment is then characterised by cold mid-levels overspreading relatively warm SSTs, as the Atlantic upper trough continues to nudge eastwards across the British Isles. A few hundred J/kg CAPE are expected to build, with numerous showers developing over open seas and moving farther inland on the southwesterly steering winds. A few lightning strikes and small hail will be possible with the strongest cells - the risk initially over western Ireland during Tuesday daytime, but extending to other portions of the LOW threat level during Tuesday evening and night.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-12-18

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 19 Dec 2018 - 05:59 UTC Thu 20 Dec 2018

ISSUED 21:22 UTC Tue 18 Dec 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper low remains centred to the northwest of the British Isles on Wednesday, but with a series of troughs rotating eastwards around its southern periphery helping to create windows of deeper instability (and hence periods of increased convective activity). The broad theme sees cold mid-levels atop relatively warm SSTs, generating a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Numerous showers are expected to develop over open seas, then transferring inland by steering winds and sometimes well-inland as organised trough features move through in the westerly flow.

 

While a few lightning strikes and small hail will be possible from the most intense cells almost anywhere, there appears to be some consensus for a slightly increased risk over the English Channel, particularly during Wednesday evening and night as another surge of cold mid-levels / falling heights overspreads the area, combined with low-level convergence. Main concerns are lack of notable shear and rather saturated looking profiles, which would suggest lightning activity may be quite sparse - and so, rather hesitantly, issued a low-end SLGT.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-12-19

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I'm in Northants(Daventry) and the storm in the distance is the one over Merthyr Tydfil !!

20181219_124155.jpg

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