Storm & Convective Discussion - 7th August Onwards

[Cambridgeshire Weather]

5 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Yeah, rain and wind has eased off now, its more or less still again, still shows storms in the forecast later

Hoping your storm comes down to me

[Allseasons-Si]

Rapid developement's to my east.

this ones heading for Lincoln.

Edited August 13, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Lincs Observation]

Serious thunderstorm here in South Kyme very heavy rain indeed

[Lincs Observation]

Looks like we are inline for a stream of storms moving down from the north

LO

[TJS1998Tom]

Not sure if you can see but are these towers in the distance?

[Eskimo]

Had torrential rain here in York for the last half an hour - we all know what prolonged torrential rain does to the streets of York 

[dapick2002]

Long time since I've seen skies this angry with cloud rapidly getting dragged upwards. Un/fortunately passing just east of here in Bourne but incredibly windy 

[Tony M]

24 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Had torrential rain here in York for the last half an hour - we all know what prolonged torrential rain does to the streets of York 

Hot off the York Press

[Atmogenic]

The cell just south of me just made 3 rumbles of thunder but unfortunately its not heading north 

[Dangerous55019]

Now’t happening for me today, but I’ve just seen this little beauty over towards the Liverpool, Manchester area. 

[Tony M]

Clouds over Castle Howard 

 

[Cambridgeshire Weather]

Looks like its over for now

[Muffelchen]

Big shower developed suddenly and moved over us but no thunder from it: maybe it's too late in the day....

[Windblade]

4 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Saw some rotation on this cell which just passed to my SE with one rumble of thunder

i was waiting for it to drop a funnel but it didn't.

a nice Cb developing to my NE now but i don't think anything will happen this far west,all the action seems to be in the NE/E/SE of here.

 

Definite wall cloud on that cell. Looks tornadic in nature with that strong inflow jet on the right, building into the wall cloud. Nice pics.

[Windblade]

5 hours ago, Neglectedchicken said:

Never seen a cloud so close to the ground

That really does look like a large cone at least, if not a wedge! Pics can be deceiving of course, especially when the view is partially obscured but very interesting nonetheless. You say you saw signs of rotation?

[Allseasons-Si]

9 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Definite wall cloud on that cell. Looks tornadic in nature with that strong inflow jet on the right, building into the wall cloud. Nice pics.

I was watching it for half an hour or so for it to drop,it was quiet dramatic and exiting to see it rotating and it would of been a third year running if it produced a funnel cloud,oh well maybe next time.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

From London this afternoon:

 

[Another Kent clipper]

7 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

From London this afternoon:

 

 

One second later after putting camera down.....

Edited August 14, 2018 by Another Kent clipper

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 14 Aug 2018 - 05:59 UTC Wed 15 Aug 2018

ISSUED 08:05 UTC Tue 14 Aug 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Subtle forcing aloft with some marginal mid-level instability may be enough to produce a few isolated lightning strikes over Scotland this morning, and perhaps SW Ireland late tonight.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-08-14

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

3 hours ago, Another Kent clipper said:

One second later after putting camera down.....

Wow - how do you manage to avoid the frame bars in your photos?

[Windblade]

On ‎13‎/‎08‎/‎2018 at 20:46, Allseasons-si said:

I was watching it for half an hour or so for it to drop,it was quiet dramatic and exiting to see it rotating and it would of been a third year running if it produced a funnel cloud,oh well maybe next time.

I would've loved to have seen that! You seem to be in a good spot for funnel clouds by the sound of it. Still chasing my first tornado!

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Windblade said:

I would've loved to have seen that! You seem to be in a good spot for funnel clouds by the sound of it. Still chasing my first tornado!

It seemed to have slipped my mind because i have seen more than i suggested that i did in my earlier post

April 2016 on the borders of Scotland

a wedge nr Scunthorpe and a funnel over my house

earlier this year on the way to work,think it was may

now i have seemed to of lost some footage of a funnel(again of last year)of which i posted in the storm and convective thread last year and i was just a quarter of a mile up the road,i will have to try and find it,i did take some footage and pics of it,i will have a browse around tomorrow.

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 15 Aug 2018 - 05:59 UTC Thu 16 Aug 2018

ISSUED 21:11 UTC Tue 14 Aug 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Subtle forcing aloft may be enough to release pockets of marginal mid-level instability, and hence a risk of isolated lightning, along the cold front as it continues to slide SE-wards from Irish Sea / NW Wales / N England initially to Lincs - Dorset by Thursday morning. Most areas of England and Wales will remain lightning-free, however. Strong deep layer shear could produce some elements of line convection at times.

 

Some model guidance suggests the potential for showery rain and perhaps some embedded isolated lightning during Wednesday evening over southern Scotland, running NE-wards across eastern Scotland and out to the North Sea.

 

Otherwise the main risk of lightning during this forecast period will be western Scotland (Highlands and islands) and western portions of Ireland, especially later on Wednesday night as steepening lapse rates overspread the area courtesy of cold air aloft associated with an upper trough, atop warm SSTs. Skinny CAPE, weakening shear and limited convective depth prevents an upgrade to SLGT for now.

 

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-08-15

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 16 Aug 2018 - 05:59 UTC Fri 17 Aug 2018

ISSUED 18:28 UTC Wed 15 Aug 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

A cold front will continue to slide southeastwards across the Midlands, southern and eastern England on Thursday - some weak mid-level instability and forcing aloft may produce an isolated lightning strike on the leading edge, but the risk is considered too low to warrant any threat levels.

The cold front will likely exhibit split front characteristics, with most of the frontal rain from medium/high level cloud, followed by a narrow shallow moist zone before the surface front moves through (marked by a change of dewpoint from 15-16C to 7-8C). A dry intrusion atop this shallow moist layer, in a strongly-sheared environment, may allow a few showers to develop, perhaps organised into line segments. However, the depth of this convection will likely be too shallow for lightning activity - but may be accompanied by some gusty winds and rather turbulent, low-hanging cloud bases.

 

Elsewhere a much better environment exists for lightning activity, as an upper trough swings progressively eastwards. Cold air aloft atop warm SSTs and diurnal heating inland will steepen lapse rates and generate 300-800 J/kg CAPE. Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across central and northern parts of the British Isles, some capable of producing small hail and gusty winds. The SLGT may need extending into eastern parts of the Republic of Ireland if the forecast capping at 600mb proves to be weaker.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-08-16

[Windblade]

23 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

It seemed to have slipped my mind because i have seen more than i suggested that i did in my earlier post

April 2016 on the borders of Scotland

a wedge nr Scunthorpe and a funnel over my house

earlier this year on the way to work,think it was may

now i have seemed to of lost some footage of a funnel(again of last year)of which i posted in the storm and convective thread last year and i was just a quarter of a mile up the road,i will have to try and find it,i did take some footage and pics of it,i will have a browse around tomorrow.

 

 

Incredible! I'm jealous! Great finds my friend and thanks for sharing.