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JeffC

How will Solar Minimum affect weather and climate?

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11 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Interesting to see where this winter takes, but a fast marked change is what I anticipate. By 2021 step down one complete and fully evident( major winter to match a 20th century great within next 3 winters).....late 20s to 2030 step down 2....

 

BFTP

That’s quite a statement Fred....any of the next 3 winters has a 1 in 3 chance of being truly epic with high confidence that at least one will be. This despite any effects of GW.

will you be doing a full winter forecast this year Fred?

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3 hours ago, Bobd29 said:

That’s quite a statement Fred....any of the next 3 winters has a 1 in 3 chance of being truly epic with high confidence that at least one will be. This despite any effects of GW.

will you be doing a full winter forecast this year Fred?

Surely GW will have little affect on actual weather on ground  if its more about the changes to our weather patterns with solar minimum.

A severe cold spell would just be 0.8c less severe if it worked like that?

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5 hours ago, Nights King said:

Surely GW will have little affect on actual weather on ground  if its more about the changes to our weather patterns with solar minimum.

A severe cold spell would just be 0.8c less severe if it worked like that?

Hi NK my reference was to the effect of GW on macro climatic conditions which in themselves may mitigate the effects of solar minimum expectations at ground level. I accept GW will not directly affect solar minima having an effect.

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Well I'm going to go on the assumptions that low ice is indeed 'tweaking' jet patterns and also that low solar has been recognised to 'coincide' with blocked N. Atlantic winters.

I believe low ice , since the turn of the century over Barentsz/Kara lead to the setting up of a summer/winter jet position that culminated in the 'washout summer years' but also supplied moisture for the low solar winter of 09/10.

I think the record drop in 2012 sea ice extent/area/volume saw other areas now become 'seasonal' in their ice cover putting another dollop of energy at the disposal of the northern climate system?

This has seen our summers, the past two in fact, slowly move away from 'washout' and towards more dry/sunny?

This summer sees a further consolidation of this new 'average Jet shape/position' over the UK. No more SW trough now more a ridge to our north?

So , winter? Well it looks blocked due to low solar and blocked due to proximity to the ridge?

But then what of the Polar night Jet? Where will its deformed/twisted shape set up winter camp?

If it favours NE Canada/NE US again then we'll see a cold but dry winter ( I can do dry cold!)

If the bugger positions over est Greenland/Sweden and all points south then expect an early and snowy winter!!!

My money is on the blocked, cold winter but not a brutal ,Siberian fed winter, just home grown W.Europe cold?

I think a cold pole over Greenland and the PNJ split into that dumbbell shape again over Canada/US and over Eurasia. 

I think it has to do with the 'open water Arctic sites' being too messy directly above them for the jet to hold station??

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On 18/08/2018 at 13:51, Nights King said:

Surely GW will have little affect on actual weather on ground  if its more about the changes to our weather patterns with solar minimum.

A severe cold spell would just be 0.8c less severe if it worked like that?

Not necessarily, as it depends on where the cold air is being sourced from. Given some of the unprecedented temperature anomalies we've seen over the Arctic in recent years then perhaps cold spells from direct northerlies will be far less potent than they used to be, in which case "0.8°C less severe" may be an underestimate.

However, we have seen some truly brutal cold-pooling over Siberia in recent years, which many believe could be a consequence of a warm Arctic (often referred to as "warm Arctic, cold continents"). So it may in fact be the case that we see Siberian-sourced cold spells increase in severity. The remarkably cold weather we witnessed in late February and early March of this year (upper-air temperatures briefly touching -17°C; you'd probably have to go back to 1987 to beat that!) perhaps demonstrates this.

And what of cold sea-surface temperatures in the north Atlantic due to a weakening AMOC? If we see cooling in the right regions then maybe this could, to an extent, negate the effects of warmer Arctic air because the water over which the air is travelling becomes colder and hence we see less modulation? The same goes for cold-and-snow events off the back of Winter depressions: perhaps marginal events see more snow whereas previously we may have just had cold rain?

Edited by Relativistic

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Missed this recently from my favourite denier:

Joe Bastardi

anyone paying attention to big drops in Indian Ocean and Atlantic Temps FROM LAST YEAR never mind super nino year. . Any idea of the implications of that kind of drop with the MJO or other major drivers, You'll find out this winter with modoki enso and MJO in colder phases

Add that little snippet to the facts of solar minima and there is ample enthusiasm for the winter ahead imo. 

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5 minutes ago, Bobd29 said:

Missed this recently from my favourite denier:

Joe Bastardi

anyone paying attention to big drops in Indian Ocean and Atlantic Temps FROM LAST YEAR never mind super nino year. . Any idea of the implications of that kind of drop with the MJO or other major drivers, You'll find out this winter with modoki enso and MJO in colder phases

Add that little snippet to the facts of solar minima and there is ample enthusiasm for the winter ahead imo. 

So 'Big Joe' is expecting some 'brutal cold' again, this winter? He wouldn't be called 'Big Joe' if he wasn't, would he?☔

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Indian Ocean is normally cooler when Nino is in place. The Atlantic is the anomaly. 

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On 18/08/2018 at 10:10, Bobd29 said:

That’s quite a statement Fred....any of the next 3 winters has a 1 in 3 chance of being truly epic with high confidence that at least one will be. This despite any effects of GW.

will you be doing a full winter forecast this year Fred?

Of cse not thinking a 62/63 automatically (although I believe I’ll see one) but there are a good few others to think of.  The effects of this GW cycle will go/is gong into reverse imo with this grand minimum kicking in.  

Lets see if we get this ‘Indian Summer’ I’m thinking we’ll have ( Great warmth in Sept and Oct with HP cell very much to the fro).  If so I’m anticipating an early bang into winter.  Yes I’ll be giving another winter LRF

 

BFTP 

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interesting thread. it should be noted that it's not 'solar output' which affects our weather, rather, 'solar activity'. solar radiation varies very little between max and min. its the sunspot 'activity' that makes the difference. solar flares and CME's (produced by sunspots) are frequent during maximum, these blast away cosmic rays, vastly reducing the amount entering the atmosphere. during minimum, these sub-atomic particles (cosmic rays) collide with particles in the atmosphere, seeding clouds. therefore global cloud cover increases during solar minimum, reflecting the suns rays and cooling the atmosphere which consequently 'shrinks'. in simple terms, this alters the 'flow' of global weather systems, including the jet-stream. interestingly, there is a proven, strong correlation between solar minimum and increased volcanic activity, though no-one is exactly sure why...

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8 hours ago, bobbydog said:

interesting thread. it should be noted that it's not 'solar output' which affects our weather, rather, 'solar activity'. solar radiation varies very little between max and min. its the sunspot 'activity' that makes the difference. solar flares and CME's (produced by sunspots) are frequent during maximum, these blast away cosmic rays, vastly reducing the amount entering the atmosphere. during minimum, these sub-atomic particles (cosmic rays) collide with particles in the atmosphere, seeding clouds. therefore global cloud cover increases during solar minimum, reflecting the suns rays and cooling the atmosphere which consequently 'shrinks'. in simple terms, this alters the 'flow' of global weather systems, including the jet-stream. interestingly, there is a proven, strong correlation between solar minimum and increased volcanic activity, though no-one is exactly sure why...

I'm really glad I kicked this thread off, I'm also really looking forward to Fred's LRF and also how well it verifies. Interesting times and hopefully educational too.

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13 hours ago, JeffC said:

I'm really glad I kicked this thread off, I'm also really looking forward to Fred's LRF and also how well it verifies. Interesting times and hopefully educational too.

Agree Jeff and if you combine this with Steve Murr’s new thread then the coming winter may get very interesting. Beginning to feel a little optimistic.

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But how will the reduction in Solar output affect the Solar-driven Southern Oscillation? Will it cause it to 'run slow', like a watch mechanism does when it's in need of winding?

I think that there might be a million too many feedback mechanisms involved to make any definitive prognostication...Just as the effects of AGW are not linear, neither are those attributed to Solar GM, IMO?

Who knows? But they might be picked-up by the various teleconnections? So here's hoping!🤔

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14 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

But how will the reduction in Solar output affect the Solar-driven Southern Oscillation? Will it cause it to 'run slow', like a watch mechanism does when it's in need of winding?

I think that there might be a million too many feedback mechanisms involved to make any definitive prognostication...Just as the effects of AGW are not linear, neither are those attributed to Solar GM, IMO?

Who knows? But they might be picked-up by the various teleconnections? So here's hoping!🤔

Aye, it's about watching reality rather than guessing with hypotheses....

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So we now have reached 140 spotless days....based on 11 year Schwabe cycle...heading much deeper than last minima. I’m not expecting this winter to be ‘the’ whammy ( it could be).....but boy I think we have one coming very soon

 

B FTP

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37 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

So we now have reached 140 spotless days....based on 11 year Schwabe cycle...heading much deeper than last minima. I’m not expecting this winter to be ‘the’ whammy ( it could be).....but boy I think we have one coming very soon

 

B FTP

Yes, im thinking next year, Gavin did some analogues and they fit the solar profile we will have and could coincide with other favourable variables.

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This article is interesting - https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2782 
The research suggests a 0 - 2 year lagged response in late winter (...March 2018?  February 2009? but March 2013 doesn't really fit with the pattern) and a 2 - 4 year lagged response in early winter (December 2010?).   Perhaps there's a reverse effect with some of the mild zonal winters in the middle of the cycle too, e.g. 2013-14 and Dec 2015 after solar max.  The article does say the results should be treated with caution, though, as the data only spans 58 years.

This NOAA presentation mentions that early indications of solar cycle 25 suggest it may be as large as the current one (slides 21 - 23): 
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/What Happened to Those Sunspots.pdf 

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On 07/09/2018 at 22:13, virtualsphere said:

This article is interesting - https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/qj.2782 
The research suggests a 0 - 2 year lagged response in late winter (...March 2018?  February 2009? but March 2013 doesn't really fit with the pattern) and a 2 - 4 year lagged response in early winter (December 2010?).   Perhaps there's a reverse effect with some of the mild zonal winters in the middle of the cycle too, e.g. 2013-14 and Dec 2015 after solar max.  The article does say the results should be treated with caution, though, as the data only spans 58 years.

This NOAA presentation mentions that early indications of solar cycle 25 suggest it may be as large as the current one (slides 21 - 23): 
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/What Happened to Those Sunspots.pdf 

They hope!

I’m in the even weaker camp

 

BFTP

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So the ECM Seasonal is out for the Winter months (apologies if it is being talked about elsewhere, I couldn't find anything) and I wonder if what it's showing is linked to the Solar minima? Constant Northerly Blocking! I guess if that's what it shows every year then we can discount it completely!

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/flash.html

 

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On 18/08/2018 at 10:10, Bobd29 said:

That’s quite a statement Fred....any of the next 3 winters has a 1 in 3 chance of being truly epic with high confidence that at least one will be. This despite any effects of GW.

will you be doing a full winter forecast this year Fred?

 Very interesting this year, I’m going in early this year with prelim winter LRF on 1st Oct (I’ve got my written notes now but need to tidy itup) then detail it up with periods of note as I do around 1st Nov.

Regards

BFTP

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3 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 Very interesting this year, I’m going in early this year with prelim winter LRF on 1st Oct (I’ve got my written notes now but need to tidy itup) then detail it up with periods of note as I do around 1st Nov.

Regards

BFTP

Always appreciated Fred, whatever the outcome you are brave enough to put your often contrary views out there. Look forward to your thoughts, good luck.

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A cold wave( which will affect many parts of Europe, including even Spain and Portugal) between mid November and mid February, after that the second half of Feb 2019 will be mild and wet, and March 2019 will be mild and springlike for the first half, before turning cold and cloudy in the second half. 

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I keep seeing analogue forecasts being produced but I can't seem to find any information on their accuracy/reliability.  Surely there are no "true" analogues to the pattern we are seeing now and hence analogue forecasts are of no use.

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17 minutes ago, Evening Star said:

I keep seeing analogue forecasts being produced but I can't seem to find any information on their accuracy/reliability.  Surely there are no "true" analogues to the pattern we are seeing now and hence analogue forecasts are of no use.

Aye ES, I can't really see much in the way of objective evidence for AFs' reliability; to me it seems that they exhibit varying degrees of wrongness, and none is ever right?

Not that they're pure guesswork, like the witterings of Madden and Corbyn et al. are, of course...

Edited by Ed Stone

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