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JeffC

How will Solar Minimum affect weather and climate?

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Morning All!

If someone has already started this topic then feel free to merge / delete or otherwise deal with this topic!

I'm something of a novice in all this malarkey, but I recall reading somewhere that solar minima tend to manifest changes to the way the jet stream reacts, becoming more meandering with a more meridonal flow becoming increasingly common over the more usual zonal weather we are used to getting.

I also remember this implying that weather patterns tend to become more entrenched rather than mobile and hence we see extended periods of similar weather.

That leads me to wonder whether the recent largely settled weather we've had is associated with solar minimum, which we must be close to, and whether we can therefore expect greater period of specific types of weather when we move into Autumn & Winter?

Additionally, can we expect more extremes of specific weather types, e.g. Colder or warmer if the solar minimum is prolonged and / or the next cycle is (as some predict) somewhat lower in activity than more recent cycles have been?

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Anybody got any theories or comments? 

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8 minutes ago, JeffC said:

Anybody got any theories or comments? 

For me Jeff solar activity is a huge player, we are now approaching a grand minima and with that I expect some brutal cold for the UK.

There are obviously other major 'players' on earth, SST and NH sea ice, it will be interesting to see how they interact.:cold-emoji:

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Went to hear this lady in Edinburgh with my daughter Aurora Storm.

 

Gives a good back ground to the forcings of the sun which I believe have a big influence on our climate          Between the lack of ice in theArctic and a very quiet sun we could be in for an unusual and extreme winter just like this summer.

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Don't have exact timings of the last solar minimum periods, but they roughly occurred 1995-1997 and 2007-2010 and both periods were marked by significant northern blocking episodes, some notable cold in the winter and also notably dry conditions. Indeed 1995-97 period was the driest on record.. Also conversely the last two solar max periods in 1999-2000 and 2013-2014 coincided with very wet very mild winters...

I think also period 1984-1986 was a solar min one and that two brought cold blocked patterns in winter.. mmm a pattern emerging here with a looping jetstream.

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20 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Don't have exact timings of the last solar minimum periods, but they roughly occurred 1995-1997 and 2007-2010 and both periods were marked by significant northern blocking episodes, some notable cold in the winter and also notably dry conditions. Indeed 1995-97 period was the driest on record.. Also conversely the last two solar max periods in 1999-2000 and 2013-2014 coincided with very wet very mild winters...

I think also period 1984-1986 was a solar min one and that two brought cold blocked patterns in winter.. mmm a pattern emerging here with a looping jetstream.

Thanks Damian

The meridonal nature you describe of a looping jet stream, is it because of a slight reduction in temperature gradient between polar and tropical latitude, meaning a less well defined jet?

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11 year cycle minimums aren’t that obvious in effect on weather....the Hale Cycle of about 22 more so and Gleissberg etc even more so.  What is of importance is 08/09 was deepest for a century and we are entering into an even deeper one.   

This jetstream behaviour is set to continue and be even more extreme as we head to a Dalton style minima.....I believe it will match The Maunder Minimum at least

Last 41 of 44 days have been blank (a run not seen since 08/09 and a century before that) and 128 days this year so far have been blank!!. This year we compare to 07.....and

07 had 104 blank days.

08 had 268 blank days and

09 260 blank days.

 So if we are going deeper as I strongly believe....where are 2019/2020 (anticipated cycle 24 minimum) headed!?

Actual cycle minimum expected 19/20.  

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Well all I can say as its bringing some bizzare weather snowiest winter I`ve ever recorded by 100 laps this past winter spring,and now the driest hottest summer since 1976,we are heading to old style weather but with more extremes because of the overall warming of our solar system.

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it does seem to affect the jet stream if this continues through to winter with the jet so far north, it will all depend on where high pressure develops as to what kind of winter we have.

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I don't believe solar cycles themselves have much impact on the UK Weather although maybe alter jet however long grand minimum defiantly have a cooling effect on the winter

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So, bit of a guessing game for winter? Towards solar minimum might suggest cooler than average, but if we're talking increased meridonality than zonality then that might be a 50/50 based upon where the peak or trough of the wave sets up. That said, it seems likely that once established that may be a longer term situation?

Discuss!!

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17 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

11 year cycle minimums aren’t that obvious in effect on weather....the Hale Cycle of about 22 more so and Gleissberg etc even more so.  

Never bought the Hale cycle theory. Before 1895, it gets very blur and what was the last Hale cycle winter?

Edited by Weather-history
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51 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Never bought the Hale cycle theory. Before 1895, it gets very blur and what was the last Hale cycle winter?

Aye Mr D, the evidence is rather scant on that one, to say the least...But, I do take the idea of the meandering jet quite seriously, as it seems to be backed-up by both theory and history.

Unfortunately, however, given the current (increasingly overwhelming) AGW forcing, the effects of the Solar Min might be very hard to disentangle. (The AGW forcing may even affect the jet in much the same way as the Solar Min?)

So my own thinking is that, whatever the effects of the SM are, they'll likely be swamped by AGW...? 

Edited by Ed Stone
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Regarding the cycle it's actually only an average of 22 years though, it's actually supposed to represent the end of each sunspot cycle (a complete cycle actually being two) which does vary a little so 1995 and 2008 for example saw solar minimum with the following being hale winters. Before that we get 1986 (cold winter afterward), 1964 (cold winter afterward), 1944 (abnormal but cold overall winter afterward - also saw a 7C Feb), 1923 (cool winter afterward), 1902 (average to mild) and 1878 (stonker of a winter afterward), 1856 saw a cold winter overall following though 1833 saw a horror show following. 

So there's something to it probably but to be honest it simply reflects the fact that low solar activity in the UK does disproportionately increase the chance of a cooler than average month. 

Looking at the top 20 spotless years and the following winters and using 3.6C, 3.4C and 3.4C as our marks then we get 55% of Decembers, 40% of January's and 30% of February's below those values. If we narrow to the top 10 for the winter of 2019-2020 then that becomes 50-50-40. 

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Unfortunately, however, the 'predictive' power of 'hale winters' only seems to work in retrospect; as a means of actually forecasting anything, it appears to be utterly useless...

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Low solar activity seems to increase the extremes in the UK. Very wet mild winters, very cold snowy winters are all things that happen during solar minimums. 

I think it has a bigger effect on the jet stream, the jet stream becomes more likely to get “stuck” so we see the same type of weather repeating, this summer being a good example. 

If we get stuck on the cold side of the jet, fun and games in the snow. If we get stuck on the milder side, fun and games in the floods. 

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9 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Low solar activity seems to increase the extremes in the UK. Very wet mild winters, very cold snowy winters are all things that happen during solar minimums. 

I think it has a bigger effect on the jet stream, the jet stream becomes more likely to get “stuck” so we see the same type of weather repeating, this summer being a good example. 

If we get stuck on the cold side of the jet, fun and games in the snow. If we get stuck on the milder side, fun and games in the floods. 

Hopefully no mudman. 😁

waiwo.thumb.jpg.c04298ab3d72c4a5b667264bad01e656.jpg

 

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Regarding Hale cycles, some notably hot Summers seem to be separated by ~22 years. For all the Summers mentioned I've included their CETs and CET ranks in brackets.

1826 (17.60°C, 2)
+20 years  -->  1846 (17.10°C, 6)   (there were two shorter-than-normal solar cycles here)
+22 years  -->  1868 (16.87°C, 14)

1911 (16.97°C, 10)
+22 years  -->  1933 (17.00°C, 9)
+22 years  -->  1955 (16.53°C, joint-26th)
+21 years  -->  1976 (17.77°C, 1)

1995 (17.37°C, 3)
+23 years  -->  2018 (??, August only requires a CET of 15.8°C to make the top 10)

I'm not sure I'm entirely convinced by this because the positions in the solar cycles seems to vary somewhat, but interesting nonetheless. Who knows, perhaps Summer 2040 will be a scorcher!

Edited by Relativistic
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24 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

Regarding Hale cycles, some notably hot Summers seem to be separated by ~22 years. For all the Summers mentioned I've included their CETs and CET ranks in brackets.

1826 (17.60°C, 2)
+20 years  -->  1846 (17.10°C, 6)   (there were two shorter-than-normal solar cycles here)
+22 years  -->  1868 (16.87°C, 14)

1911 (16.97°C, 10)
+22 years  -->  1933 (17.00°C, 9)
+22 years  -->  1955 (16.53°C, joint-26th)
+21 years  -->  1976 (17.77°C, 1)

1995 (17.37°C, 3)
+23 years  -->  2018 (??, August only requires a CET of 15.8°C to make the top 10)

I'm not sure I'm entirely convinced by this because the positions in the solar cycles seems to vary somewhat, but interesting nonetheless. Who knows, perhaps Summer 2040 will be a scorcher!

Slightly unrelated as well but just the other day I was thinking that all the top 4 warmest months at 19.0c + in the CET record seem to be separated by 11 to 12 years. First there was Jul 83 + 12 we had Aug 95 + 11 we had Jul 06 then + 12 again we just had Jul 18. Based on this who'd like to bet on either Jul or Aug 29 or 30 being another 19.0c + CET month?

Edited by Walsall Wood Snow
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50 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Slightly unrelated as well but just the other day I was thinking that all the top 4 warmest months at 19.0c + in the CET record seem to be separated by 11 to 12 years. First there was Jul 83 + 12 we had Aug 95 + 11 we had Jul 06 then + 12 again we just had Jul 18. Based on this who'd like to bet on either Jul or Aug 29 or 30 being another 19.0c + CET month?

Indeed, this was something I noted too. This case is more interesting because all four examples seem to have occurred just before solar minimum ('83 less so, but still well on its way). Unfortunately, the occurrence of these "super-hot" months ceases if you try to trace the pattern back further. You can find August 1947 (18.6°C) if you go back 3*12=36 years, but this occurred around solar maximum.

Edited by Relativistic
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Personally I think folk are getting too stuck in the Schwabe cycles alone (which are the 11 yr cycle).  They are imo of much less consequence alone compared to the bigger picture.   We are entering minima from an already low point ie the cycle peak of cycle 24 is the lowest since cycle 5 hence this minima is  going to be deep.....deeper than that of 07/08/09.  (Pete re your AGW overwhelming forcing.....well you know my rebuttal of that and remember the calls by AGW brigade were not for a meridional/disrupted jetstream.).  Interestingly it seems we are going to witness the result in our lifetimes.....and will end imo the argument either way. 

The sun continues to slumber and 07/08/09 was fairly unique......and this will surpass that and cycle 25 I propose will surpass this one, and extremes due to an ever increasing meandering jetstream will increase in starkness.

 

Exciting times weather wise and am looking forward to the new solar rocket reports starting in about 3 months

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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2 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Personally I think folk are getting too stuck in the Schwabe cycles alone (which are the 11 yr cycle).  They are imo of much less consequence alone compared to the bigger picture.   We are entering minima from an already low point ie the cycle peak of cycle 24 is the lowest since cycle 5 hence this minima is  going to be deep.....deeper than that of 07/08/09.  (Pete re your AGW overwhelming forcing.....well you know my rebuttal of that and remember the calls by AGW brigade were not for a meridional/disrupted jetstream.).  Interestingly it seems we are going to witness the result in our lifetimes.....and will end imo the argument either way. 

The sun continues to slumber and 07/08/09 was fairly unique......and this will surpass that and cycle 25 I propose will surpass this one, and extremes due to an ever increasing meandering jetstream will increase in starkness.

 

Exciting times weather wise and am looking forward to the new solar rocket reports starting in about 3 months

 

BFTP

Hi Fred I share your general thoughts on the effects of solar minima but I wonder if there will be a gradual effect on our winters over a few years or whether the effect will be more dramatic in that we will experience a severe winter out of context of previous winters either this winter or the next couple? I assume as we enter a period of very low minima you anticipate that cold/cooler winters will become the norm for a protracted period? 

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On 11/08/2018 at 08:59, Ed Stone said:

Aye Mr D, the evidence is rather scant on that one, to say the least...But, I do take the idea of the meandering jet quite seriously, as it seems to be backed-up by both theory and history.

Unfortunately, however, given the current (increasingly overwhelming) AGW forcing, the effects of the Solar Min might be very hard to disentangle. (The AGW forcing may even affect the jet in much the same way as the Solar Min?)

So my own thinking is that, whatever the effects of the SM are, they'll likely be swamped by AGW...? 

Yes, this is where I am I think. I do believe there's a reasonable chance we are entering a period of low solar activity which is not unusual on the century scale (e.g. the Wolf, Spörer, Maunder minimums), but it won't have a significant effect on the global temperature.

However, there is a enough reputable science to suggest a link between, for example, increased Northern blocking during periods of low activity to warrant further attention. Here's an article in Nature from this year on the subject:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-22854-0

 

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