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chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Blocked setup duration

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Posted (edited)

Given that the eastern side of the country seems trapped in an ongoing drought, the anxious catastrophising aspect of my personaliy wonders how long this can conceivably continue.  My assumption would be that the reduced hours of daylight by mid-autun and the strengthing of the Polar Vortex would push Atlantic systems through a block that would be weakened by reduced insolation, but this block seems exceptional, and there have been winters of recent years in which the Jet has barely seemed able to bring wet weather to the eatern half of the UK even when there hasn't been a massive block over western and northern Europe.  My question, therefore, is whether it's conceivable that this side of the country could stay in a technical drought, or at least a near-drought state through the winter and therefore enter spring 2019 with dangerously low water reserves and the prospect of another hot, dry summer?

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

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Funnily enough, the MetO long-range ensemble means are not a million miles away from that:

2cat_20180701_z500_months24_global_deter

2cat_20180701_z500_months35_global_deter

2cat_20180701_z500_months46_global_deter

 

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2 hours ago, Yarmy said:

Funnily enough, the MetO long-range ensemble means are not a million miles away from that:

2cat_20180701_z500_months24_global_deter

2cat_20180701_z500_months35_global_deter

2cat_20180701_z500_months46_global_deter

 

Oh well, the Great Eastern Desert expands...🙄

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The lack of rain for the 1976 drought started in Autumn 1975

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If this is tied into the whacked out jet then we might be well served to look at the 'ridiculously Resilient Ridge# ( triple 'R') or our own 'washout summers' as a guide?

We saw 7 years of the washout summers as the trough repeatedly positioned itself to our west.

With further opening of the Arctic sea ice ( 2012) then have we not .after the same lag period as we saw since the opening of Barentsz/Kara, seen this move toward our own version of the triple 'R'?

If so then we may find ourselves with this until 5 years after the next Arctic Ocean areas become seasonal?

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