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August 2018 C.E.T. forecast contest and optional EWP forecast contest


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1981-2010 CET averages and extremes 1772 to 2017

  

Date ____ Avg CET ___ cum CET ____ MAX 1772-2017 __ MIN 1772-2017 

_01______ 16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.9 1995 _____ 11.9 1888

 _02 ______16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.6 1995 _____ 11.6 1822

 _03 ______16.9 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.4 1990 _____ 10.5 1912

_04______ 17.0 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.4 1975 _____ 11.3 1812

_05 ______17.3 _______ 17.0 ________ 23.1 2003 _____ 11.3 1812

_06 ______17.2 _______ 17.0 ________ 22.5 2003 _____ 11.2 1823&1860

_07______ 16.9 _______ 17.0 ________ 22.8 1975 _____ 11.6 1898

_08 ______16.8 _______ 17.0 ________ 23.7 1975 _____ 11.5 1823

_09 ______16.9 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.9 2003 _____ 11.0 1931

_10______ 16.8 _______ 16.9 _______ 22.5 1773&1997__10.8 1892

 

_11 ______16.7 _______ 16.9 ________ 22.6 1997 _____ 10.8 1902

_12 ______16.8 _______ 16.9 ________ 22.2 1911 _____ 10.5 1912

_13______ 16.3 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.6 1911 _____ 10.5 1881

 _14 ______16.7 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.3 1911 _____ 10.8 1912

_15 ______16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.1 1893 _____ 10.3 1829

_16______ 16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.6 1947 ______ 9.5 1888

_17 ______16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.4 1876 _____ 10.9 1888

_18 ______16.6 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.6 1893 _____ 10.3 1830

_19 ______16.9 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.8 1932 _____ 10.4 1839

_20 ______16.7 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.9 1995 _____ 10.5 1920

 

_21 ______16.4 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.6 1984 ______ 9.8 1850

_22______ 16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.1 1955 _____ 10.4 1817

_23 ______16.1 _______ 16.7 ________ 22.1 1955 _____ 10.3 1877

_24 ______16.1 _______ 16.7 ________ 21.5 1990 ______ 9.1 1864

_25______ 15.8 _______ 16.7 ________ 20.9 1899 _____ 10.5 1787,1843&1864

_26 ______15.7 _______ 16.6 ________ 20.6 1870 ______ 8.8 1864

_27 ______15.4 _______ 16.6 ________ 22.8 1930 _____ 11.0 1885&1890

_28______ 15.1 _______ 16.5 ________ 23.0 1942 _____ 10.5 1919

_29 ______15.3 _______ 16.5 ________ 20.6 1930 ______ 9.1 1812

_30 ______15.5 _______ 16.5 _______ 19.8 1808&2008__ 9.5 1890

  

_31 ______15.2 _______ 16.4________ 21.3 1906 ______ 9.2 1833

__________________________________________________________________

The most recent record minimum CET daily mean in August was on the 9th of 1931. 

I would like to see that low Aug 30 record max replaced, should be a piece of cake for 2018.

3-day mean of 9.5 24-26 Aug 1864 ... beaches deserted I would imagine.

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With Summer 2018 looking to finish above 17°C, I thought I'd look at how it so far compares with all other 17°C-and-over Summers (nine in total) in terms of the numbers of "hot days". I've plotted the

The last eight days of May 2018 were all warmer than the same dates in August, and averaged 2.55 deg warmer, so the period 24 May to 23 August was 0.27 deg warmer than the actual summer of June to Aug

Thanks for looking into my speculative ideas about 2018 warmth. I had a bit more time today and checked some tables I had created over in the historical data forum CET thread. This year was (so far) o

Posted Images

11 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

20c, mega thunderstorms end of month woth widespread flash flooding....87mm rainfall.

This is the tipping point year....wait til Dec ?

BFTP

The year of extremes to continue right to its end Fred?

Will have to go some to get near 2010...tend to agree though.:good:

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The various late forecasts have moved consensus CET up one rung to 18.0 ... the EWP may change marginally but the spread of seven new calls is similar to the original 37 where consensus was 51 mm.

I am on a long vacation road trip but taking a working break from it at a motel in Nevada, temp here the past three days has been 43 C daytime and 25 C or higher at night. You get used to it. Have seen some nice monsoon storm clouds mostly off to the southeast of where we are. 

The relevance of this is that I will be posting tables of entries on the 3rd before the absolute deadline and may not see the official EWP for quite a few days after we get back to the road trip. Won't be home until 22nd August but would imagine having one day of internet contact around 10th to catch up, so if no scoring appears for EWP (July) until then, be patient as it will eventually happen. Anyone is welcome to list the winners based on either NCIC or Hadley figures (I score both separately). Looks to me like 35-40 mm might do best? July entries can be seen over in the contest scoring thread.

Okay, as to July 2018, hoping BFTV can update on how that highest minimum daily value situation played out, and could somebody confirm there was one daily record 22.5 on 27th (formerly 21.9 1948).

For such a warm month, very few daily record threats. However, Feb 1779 lost all of theirs since setting quite a few no doubt (1772 to 1779 not a very rich harvest of mild days). I had a brief look at the final values and from what I recall of a previous post I made, 11 days of 20+ is third place behind 2006 and 1983. Apologies if somebody has posted on these subjects, I am trying to score or tabulate three different contests and hydrate all at the same time. :)

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31 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

20c, mega thunderstorms end of month woth widespread flash flooding....87mm rainfall.

This is the tipping point year....wait til Dec ?

BFTP

Right said Fred - 'ave a cuppa tea...:yahoo:

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19.2 to the 2nd

3.1 above the 61 to 90 average

2.4 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 19.2 to the 2nd

Current low this month 17.7 to the 1st

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Tables of entries have been posted over in the contest scoring thread/ July EWP and annual update for NCIC version are also posted. I am returning to a long road trip now after taking three days to update weather forum contest work on three separate sites. 

August contest entries still welcome to midnight cutoff today, but the tables won't include them, J10 and I will try to remember to check this thread for any last minute entries.

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Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

19.9C to the 3rd... +2.8 (20.6: +3.7)
19.5C to the 4th... +2.6 (19.0: +2.0)
19.5C to the 5th... +2.5 (19.3: +2.0)
19.6C to the 6th... +2.6 (20.3: +3.1)
19.6C to the 7th... +2.6 (19.8: +2.9)
19.1C to the 8th... +2.2 (15.7: -1.1)
18.7C to the 9th... +1.7 (15.0: -1.9)
18.3C to the 10th... +1.4 (15.0: -1.8)
18.1C to the 11th... +1.1 (15.5: -1.2)
17.9C to the 12th... +1.0 (16.9: +0.1)

A big cool down suggest after mid next week, with the coolest CET values since the last week of June.

CET_Aug3.thumb.JPG.a0295363a76045b86116caee0c621df7.JPG

An extra graph today, showing the high and low daily records and top and bottom 10s, in comparison to 2018s daily values and the forecast for the next 10 days.
CET_Aug3MM.thumb.JPG.6cd37f91571f05a8f70046f1952da99f.JPG

Edited by reef
Added figures (roughly) from graph!
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6 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

19.9C to the 3rd... +2.8 (20.6: +3.7)
19.5C to the 4th... +2.6 (19.0: +2.0)
19.5C to the 5th... +2.5 (19.3: +2.0)
19.6C to the 6th... +2.6 (20.3: +3.1)
19.6C to the 7th... +2.6 (19.8: +2.9)
19.1C to the 8th... +2.2 (15.7: -1.1)
18.7C to the 9th... +1.7 (15.0: -1.9)
18.3C to the 10th... +1.4 (15.0: -1.8)
18.1C to the 11th... +1.1 (15.5: -1.2)
17.9C to the 12th... +1.0 (16.9: +0.1)

A big cool down suggest after mid next week, with the coolest CET values since the last week of June.

CET_Aug3.thumb.JPG.a0295363a76045b86116caee0c621df7.JPG

An extra graph today, showing the high and low daily records and top and bottom 10s, in comparison to 2018s daily values and the forecast for the next 10 days.
CET_Aug3MM.thumb.JPG.6cd37f91571f05a8f70046f1952da99f.JPG

You may want to edit your rolling figure in the post.

What he means folks is 18C to the 12th according to his graph. 

Edited by reef
Figures edited in quote.
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2 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Thanks @summer blizzard. Too late to edit now unfortunately
Can a mod remove the table from my post above? Was in a rush, didn't double check the first column:wallbash:
The graphs are fine, so they can stay. They also show the rolling CET value, which suggests we'll be on about 17.9C to the 12th!

I've added in the rough figures for you. I used the graph so they might be 0.1C out or so. :)

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19.8 to the 3rd

3.6 above the 61 to 90 average

3.0 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 19.8 to the 3rd

Current low this month 17.7 to the 1st

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19.8 to the 4th

3.7 above the 61 to 90 average

2.9 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 19.8 to the 3rd & 4th

Current low this month 17.7 to the 1st

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16 hours ago, Weather26 said:

I'm guessing the cet will be getting a hammering after Tuesday with the arrival of Cooler weather.

If the less settled pattern sets in, the CET this month may not even exceed 17C. 18C already looks a challenge in my opinion. 

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18 hours ago, Weather26 said:

I'm guessing the cet will be getting a hammering after Tuesday with the arrival of Cooler weather.

Yes it will certainly drop for a time, where it ends up is unknown at this time, a warm second half with a hot spell thrown in could easily see the CET finish above 18c imo.

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19.8 to the 5th

3.6 above the 61 to 90 average

2.8 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 19.8 to the 3rd, 4th & 5th

Current low this month 17.7 to the 1st

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Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET (I Hope!)... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

19.8C to the 6th... +2.8 (19.9: +2.7)
19.8C to the 7th... +2.8 (20.0: +3.1)
19.4C to the 8th... +2.4 (16.4: -0.4)
19.0C to the 9th... +2.0 (15.8: -1.1)
18.5C to the 10th... +1.6 (14.5: -2.3)
18.4C to the 11th... +1.5 (17.2: +0.5)
18.3C to the 12th... +1.4 (17.4: +0.6)
18.2C to the 13th... +1.3 (16.2: -0.1)
18.1C to the 14th... +1.3 (17.6: +0.9)
18.2C to the 15th... +1.4 (19.2: +2.4)

After mid week, things mainly remaining close to average, with just 1, maybe 2, "cool" days. As such, we should still be hanging on into the 18s after mid month. (On the low res out to the 20th, the CET would quickly climb back above 19C!)

Aug5th.thumb.JPG.ddf139a3ad331e04fdd9852e2d2abc15.JPG Aug5thMM.thumb.JPG.894c2c08849daa2559d4c7000c64fa9b.JPG

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