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Roger J Smith

August 2018 C.E.T. forecast contest and optional EWP forecast contest

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16 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

It looks like our chances of beating 1976 are falling quickly as this summer appears to have lost its legs. The outlook to day 10 is firmly westerly and indeed some of the runs (the GFS18z tonight for example) would leave us lucky to be above 17C. 

 

No chance of beating 1976 that was one unique summer,huge drop in yesterday`s CET of 0.5c another big drop by tomorrow.

Looking very muggy next week lot of cloud about,higher mins suppressed maxes.

Found this,2018 is not going to be that high,outdated point from july when was posted.

 

 

 

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I'm not sure what you mean by 'not that high'?

Even if August finishes on 17.0C it'll be the 3rd warmest summer in 360 years. Even a 16.0C finish would make it the joint 7th warmest.

The outlook though not as warm as the first week doesn't exactly look below average either.

 

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cloudy Edmonton is at 20.6c to the 10th which is 3.5c above normal

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Sunny Sheffield at 18.8C +2.2C above normal. Rainfall 2.3mm 3.5% of average. Humid warm nights should steady any further drops so not expecting any huge gains or drops in the few days.

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Sunny Sheffield at 18.5C +1.9C above normal. Rainfall 4.8mm 7.3% of the months rainfall

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18.1 to the 11th

2.1 above the 61 to 90 average

1.2 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 19.9 to the 6th

Current low this month 17.7 to the 1st

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6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

18.1 to the 11th

2.1 above the 61 to 90 average

1.2 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 19.9 to the 6th

Current low this month 17.7 to the 1st

Dropping like a stone ...

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Dropping faster than expected. I reckon will barely be above 17C by Wednesday. Another relatively poor august

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On ‎22‎/‎07‎/‎2018 at 22:44, Steve Murr said:

Sorry guys im claiming this in advance

A double whammy of records

UK 20.1c Aug 2018 first 20c on record +3.9c on ave

40mm

Svalbard 10.0c Aug 18 - First 10c on record +5.3c above ave - if that happened goodbye Ice in that region.....

This 'forecasting'  game can be a tricky business, looks like you could be 3c too high with your prediction, where did it all go wrong?

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18.0 to the 12th

2.1 above the 61 to 90 average

1.1 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 19.9 to the 6th

Current low this month 17.7 to the 1st

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Here's the forecast based on the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

18.0C to the 13th... +1.2 (18.3: +2.1)
18.0C to the 14th... +1.2 (17.5: +0.8)
18.1C to the 15th... +1.2 (19.2: +2.4)
18.0C to the 16th... +1.2 (16.5: +0.0)
17.8C to the 17th... +1.0 (15.2: -1.3)
17.9C to the 18th... +1.1 (18.8: +2.2)
18.0C to the 19th... +1.2 (19.8: +2.9)
18.1C to the 20th... +1.2 (20.5: +3.8)
18.0C to the 21st... +1.3 (16.4: +0.0)
17.9C to the 22nd... +1.1 (15.2: -1.3)

The CET looks like remaining in an around 18C, which means remaining slightly above average for the next week to 10 days.

Aug912h.thumb.JPG.0b1bbb27a2529a82ab9f56ea8efdce33.JPG Aug12thMM.thumb.JPG.e34ad1572210fcbe81702341f64baa0c.JPG

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33 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Still can't out that magic 18.2C. Would require plus 30C bank holiday weekend spell though

So not "barely above 17C by Wednesday" then?

Calls of this August being poor are premature. There's only been 11 Augusts above 17.6C in the entire CET series and we're looking to be at around 18C with less than 10 days of it left.

Edited by reef
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The overnight lows for the past 2 nights here have been above 16C so that will certainly help keep the mean temperature reasonably high. 

Edited by cheese
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35 minutes ago, cheese said:

The overnight lows for the past 2 nights here have been above 16C so that will certainly help keep the mean temperature reasonably high. 

GFS 06z would leave us on 18.6C here to the 29th. The warmest August I've ever recorded was 18.5C in 1990.

Summer would then likely finish on 17.7C....

...both 1976 and 2006 were 17.1C.

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On ‎11‎/‎08‎/‎2018 at 16:53, reef said:

I'm not sure what you mean by 'not that high'?

Even if August finishes on 17.0C it'll be the 3rd warmest summer in 360 years. Even a 16.0C finish would make it the joint 7th warmest.

The outlook though not as warm as the first week doesn't exactly look below average either.

 

On that particular graph it was level with 1976.

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Sunny Sheffield down to 18.3C. +1.7C above normal, Rainfall 5.1mm 7.7% of the monthly average. Temps should go up in the next few days due to warm days and nights. 

Edited by The PIT
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1976 still within sight looking at tonights 12 oz. Either way it's still going to be a good august unless there's a drastic change.

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18.1 to the 13th

2.1 above the 61 to 90 average

1.2 above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 19.9 to the 6th

Current low this month 17.7 to the 1st

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I hope it finishes below 1976 mainly because of the lack of extreme warmth (so far) on a daily record scale, the way 1976 anchored its long run of warmth with the notable heat in late June and early July.

But it looks like a close-run thing from the latest model runs. 

In fact almost all of the top ten summers had a warmer day than this summer may achieve. I have limited internet time, if somebody wants to flesh that out, otherwise I will try to substantiate the idea when I have time later this month.

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4 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

I hope it finishes below 1976 mainly because of the lack of extreme warmth (so far) on a daily record scale, the way 1976 anchored its long run of warmth with the notable heat in late June and early July.

But it looks like a close-run thing from the latest model runs. 

In fact almost all of the top ten summers had a warmer day than this summer may achieve. I have limited internet time, if somebody wants to flesh that out, otherwise I will try to substantiate the idea when I have time later this month.

2018 record more days over 30C than 1976 so I'm not sure if I agree that 1976 has more to extreme heat however 1976 has a higher maximum of 35.9 but the heat was less well spread than 2018. One interesting thing is that if this month does beat 1976 its Cet will be around the same as July 2013 which felt like a vastly superior month: the very hit first week is definitely holding the month up

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Second half of this month will bring cooler nights already cooler at night now at 13c here even though we`re in a warm sector.

17.2c good chance.

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Sunny Sheffield up to 18.4C +1.9C above normal. Rainfall unchanged

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6 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Second half of this month will bring cooler nights already cooler at night now at 13c here even though we`re in a warm sector.

17.2c good chance.

Well, the second half of August is cooler than the first half on aveage, so I would certainly think so. Doesn't take a clairvoyant to figure that out.

Edited by cheese

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