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Roger J Smith

August 2018 C.E.T. forecast contest and optional EWP forecast contest

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At 16.6c, August 2018 shares the same mean monthly CET as August's 2012, 2009, 2000, 1989, 1942, 1935, 1846, 1795, 1789, 1766 and 1732.

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just a tad above average and a fair bit in common with several other new millennium August's. Sat typing this in the garden on what would be a perfect August day if it wasn't the 1st of September !!

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The last eight days of May 2018 were all warmer than the same dates in August, and averaged 2.55 deg warmer, so the period 24 May to 23 August was 0.27 deg warmer than the actual summer of June to August. That would represent a return to third place territory (perhaps 2003 could claim something similar though). If August could borrow those days, its mean would be on or about 17.4 C.

Here is the section of the CET table of entries that includes the top five for August 2018, assuming the official contest tracking is the same:

 

16.9 __ RELATIVISTIC (27th entry) ... sixth (may be tied 5th due to 5th having a late penalty)

16.8 __ GODBER.1 (Late 1 day -1st entry) ... fifth

16.7__ RADIATING DENDRITE (2nd entry) ... second ....  VIRTUALSPHERE (44th entry) ... fourth

16.6 __ ALEXISJ9 (35th entry) ... first -- congratulations

16.5 __ SYED2878 (32nd entry) ... third  ... average 1988-2017

16.4 __ average 1981-2010

 

Below this the next coldest forecast was 15.9 (Kirkcaldy weather, 11th place). That was one position ahead of weather-history at 17.3 who entered later for 12th place.

All of these forecasts round out the top ten:

17.2 __ SNOWYOWL9 (29) --8th , METALTRON (53) -- 9th, DUNCAN McALISTER (Late1d-5) -- 10th

17.1 __ JONBOY (Late1d-9) -- 7th

Looks like the two normals got some of their revenge on consensus (17.9) in that robotic portion of the contest, more about that later. 

Our coldest forecast (14.4) beat the warmest eleven forecasts. Late forecasts seemed to fare well, the models must have been backing away from sustained warmth as the month began. 

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Just when we thought the two norms were down and out, here they come thundering around the turn for home ... but is it too little too late?

The progress made in August is about three or four ranks closer to high-flying consensus. 

 

___ Past months ____

____________DEC _________________________ JAN ________________________ FEB

"Forecaster" _ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range)

1987-2016*__ +0.2 __ 89.4 - 93.4 __ 6 to 9 (88-17)>--0.6 __66.7 - 74.1 _ 15 to 19 ______ +1.9 _ 31.2 - 35.1 _ 51 to 54

1981-2010 __ --0.2 __ 89.4 - 93.4 __ 6 to 9 ______ --0.9 __ 50.0 - 55.6 _ 25 to 28 ______ +1.5 _ 48.1 - 49.4 _ 40 to 41

Consensus __--0.6 __ 71.0 - 74.9 __20 to 23 _____--0.9 __ 50.0 -55.6 _ 25 to 28 _______+1.1 _ 57.1 - 58.4 _ 33 to 34

* becomes 1988-2017 from JAN onward.

____________ MAR ___________________________________ APR _____________________ MAY ____________ 

"Forecaster" _ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range)

1988-2017 __ +1.9 __ 20.8 - 22.1 __ 60 to 61 ____ --1.1 __ 72.2--72,2 __ 18 to 18 _____ --1.3 _ 28.6 - 33.3 _ 43 to 46

1981-2010 __ +1.7 __ 26.1 - 26.1 __ 57 to 57 ____ --1.3 __ 57.4--65.6 __ 22 to 27 _____ --1.5 _ 19.1 - 20.5 _ 51 to 52

Consensus __--0.3 __ 78.9 - 85.5 __12 to 17 ____ --1.4 __ 50.8--55.8 __ 28 to 31 ______ --1.0 _ 46.1 - 54.0 _ 30 to 35

 

______________JUN ____________________________________________ JUL _______________

"Forecaster" _ Error_ Points (range)_rank (range) ___ Error _ points (range) _ rank (range)

 

1988-2017 ___ --1.5 __ 12.0 - 12.0 __ 57 to 57 _____ --2.4 __ 03.1 - 03.1 __ 63 to 63

1981-2010 ___ --1.6 __ 04.1 - 10.4 __ 58 to 62 _____ --2.4 __ 03.1 - 03.1 __ 63 to 63

Consensus ___--0.3 __ 74.9 - 82.7 __ 12 to 17 _____ --0.9 __ 51.6 - 53.2 __ 31 to 32

 

________ Current Month __ Aug 2018 ________________ Contest year averages to date (9 mo)___

"Forecaster" _Aug Error_Aug Points (range)_rank (range) // mean abs error_mean points_mean rank

1988-2017 ___ --0.1 _____ 95.3 - 98.4 ____ 02 to 04 ________ 1.22 _____ 44.4 - 49.3 __ 36 to 38 

1981-2010 ___ --0.2 _____ 93.7 - 93.7 ____ 05 to 05 ________ 1.26 _____ 43.6 - 46.7 __ 37 to 39

Consensus ___+1.3 _____ 53.0 - 56.2 ____ 29 to 31 ________ 0.87 _____ 59.2 - 65.1 __ 25 to 29 

_______________________________________________________________________________

This was the second worst month for consensus in terms of absolute error, while the two normals had their best outing. 

 

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Well, after a few months of being close with my CET guesses, 18.3C for August was way out!

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Not surprised with the downward turn in CET, some notably cool weather past week or so, also there were some very cool nights in August. A much more nearer average month then. Up here, very average indeed.

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Quite surprised I got this one spot on, thought I would be under by quite a bit.

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2nd place - happy with that. Knew it couldn't last, May - July was fantastic. 

A more average August was a welcome relief though for me and the garden.

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14 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

Quite surprised I got this one spot on, thought I would be under by quite a bit.

congratulations on a good prediction and swimming against the tide, when so many were saying the best is yet to come re August !!

Edited by Badgers01
typo
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Monthly Figures - Summary and Top 10.

Only 1 player got it spot on this month alexis9, while 3 players were 0.1c out Radiating Dendrite, syed2878 and virtualsphere.

image.thumb.png.beae9d09216c594bc4d870ab57d6c479.png

Seasonal - Summary and Top 10.

A few changes in the Top 3 this month, alexis9 has sprung up to 1st. Dancerwithwings now 2nd (from 1st), metaltron into 3rd.

image.thumb.png.cef2eb988b1d2515ae983d5963bb2858.png

Overall - Summary and Top 10.
No change in the Top 4.

1st Man with Beard
2nd Don
3rd Norrance
4th Singularity

image.thumb.png.f876923451491f266720cbd6331be4e7.png

 

August 2018 CET.xlsx

Edited by J10
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On 01/09/2018 at 10:46, reef said:

Hadley is confirmed as 16.6C, a 0.4C downwards correction.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

5th warmest summer on record at 17.27C

Well not according to the MetO...on a par with 1976 which I find a bit bewildering. When your referring to '5th warmest summer on record' is that by Central England Temperature? as MetO details hottest ever summer on record in England with same figure as 76'

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6 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well not according to the MetO...on a par with 1976 which I find a bit bewildering. When your referring to '5th warmest summer on record' is that by Central England Temperature? as MetO details hottest ever summer on record in England with same figure as 76'

Using the CET Stats above (kindly supplied by reef).

This is the top 10 in order (Manually calculated), so on this basis 2018 5th warmest since records began in 1659.

image.png.2a57f469a2fd8b3c853a392a9ab1301f.png

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17 minutes ago, J10 said:

Using the CET Stats above (kindly supplied by reef).

This is the top 10 in order (Manually calculated), so on this basis 2018 5th warmest since records began in 1659.

image.png.2a57f469a2fd8b3c853a392a9ab1301f.png

Thanks for that...why are the MetO saying that it is on par with 1976?

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They are talking about the stats for all of England or even England and Wales. In the CET series this was the 5th warmest June-July-August "summer" season behind 1976, 1826, 1995 and 2003 and barely ahead of 2006. 

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2 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Thanks for that...why are the MetO saying that it is on par with 1976?

It was 15th driest that's all I know so nothing remarkable after all. 

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Sorry for being thick here but MetO are saying 'hottest' since records began (1910) for England, surely the Central England Temperature is at odds with this?...as mentioned 5th warmest summer on record from June to August. What's the difference between 'stats and CET England temperature records'?

'England's average temperatures narrowly beat those seen in 1976' - really!?!, after this August I find that hard to believe. 17.2 c average for England over the summer, but there have been hotter and that's what's mystifying me. 

 

Edited by Froze were the Days
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On 10/08/2018 at 11:16, Relativistic said:

Yesterday's provisional mean is 15.8°C. Taking all the provisional daily means for August as correct that would put our run of daily means at or above 16°C at 45 days, edging 1783's record (highlighted in the July thread) of 44 days.

The daily mean for the 8th is currently down as 16.6°C, so it's still possible that we only equal the 1783 record in the event that this particular date takes a large downward hit come month's end.

Just to note that, with the official data in, we have indeed set a new record of 45 days.

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NCIC version of the EWP has been posted at 71.7 mm, quite close to average, in fact the contest winner is 1981-2010 average, but here's the top ten (scoring is done without the two normals and consensus then they get scores based on the actual contest entrants). Don had the high score, DAVID SNOW tied for low error but had a late penalty deduction, and AlexisJ9 who was on the mark for CET was third.

A report on the annual EWP standings (NCIC version) will appear in a while, still working on that table.

When all is done, the whole thing will appear in the contest scoring thread with a link provided. 

 

<<< (Top ten scoring, August EWP, NCIC version) >>>

 

Rank __ FORECASTER _____________ f'cast ___ error ____ score

_ (1) __ average 1981-2010 ___________73.0 ____ +1.3 ____10.0

__ 1 __ DON ______________________ 70.0 ____ --1.7 ___ 10.0

__ 2 __ DAVID SNOW _______________70.0 ____ --1.7 ____ 9.8 (10.0 - 0.2) (+1d late)

__ 3 __ ALEXISJ9 __________________ 74.0 ____ +2.3 ____ 9.6

__ 4 __ STATIONARY FRONT ________ 69.0 ____ --2.7 ____ 9.4

_T 5 __ DR(S)NO, SYED2878 _________75.0 ____ +3.3 ____ 9.1 each

_ (7) __ average 1988-2017 ___________ 75.9 ____ +4.2 ____ 9.0

__ 7 __ ROBBIE GARRETT ___________ 76.0 ____ +4.3 ____ 8.9

__ 8 __ RELATIVISTIC _______________ 66.0 ____ --5.7 ____ 8.7

__ 9 __ TJM14 ______________________78.0 ____ +6.3 ____ 8.4

_ 10 __ CHRISBELLnottheWxMAN _____ 64.8 ____ --6.9 ____ 8.2

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This is the new top ten (NCIC) for the EWP annual contest ...

Rank _ Forecaster _____________Dec_Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul_Aug __TOTAL_ previous rank

_01 __ SINGULARITY ___________5.2 _7.2 _9.8 _7.7 _6.4 _8.0 _5.7 _9.2 _7.7 __ 66.9 ____ 01

_02 __ DON __________________ 1.8 _6.1 _7.4 _8.3 _8.8 _4.3 _6.8 _6.3_10.0 __ 59.8 ____ 07

_03 __ POLAR GAEL ___________ 4.6 _9.4 _8.6 _2.6 _8.2 _9.6 _8.4 _5.5 _2.1 __ 59.0 ____ 02

_04_ CHRISBELL-nottheWxMAN _10.0 _6.8 _2.6 _6.4 _4.0 _3.9 _9.2 _7.8 _8.2 __ 58.9 ____ 06

_05 __  J10 ___________________ 4.4 _7.6 _0.7 _8.3 _9.2 _9.8 _4.3 _8.6 _5.4 __ 58.3 ____ 03

_06 __ JONBOY _______________ 9.2 _7.8 _6.4 _9.6 _7.5 _3.7 _0.6 _6.3 _4.4 __ 55.5 ____T-04

(07) __ consensus _____________5.2 _6.3 _5.0 _5.7_7.7 _5.3 _5.3 _8.8 _5.5 __ 54.8 ____ (08)

_07 __  BORN FROM THE VOID___6.4 _9.8 _3.5 _5.7 _7.5 _9.0 _1.8 _7.4 _3.3 __ 54.4 ____T-04

_08 __ NORRANCE ____________ 7.0 _2.2 _8.4 _9.3 _5.4 _9.4 _1.2 _3.6 _6.4 __ 52.9 ____ 09

_09 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE ______3.4 _3.3 _9.8_10.0_3.6 _3.0 _8.6 _5.3 _5.7 __ 52.7 ____ 10

_10 __ DR (S) NO ______________ 9.8 _8.8 _1.2 _6.2 _6.4 _2.4 _2.4 _3.7 _9.1 __ 50.0 ____ 21 

(link to all scoring here)

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=9

 

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Hadley version of EWP has checked in at 75.8 mm, scoring for that system now updated too. 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=9

Scoring was a little different near the top, Robbie Garrett has top score of 10.0 in this version, as does 1988-2017 average. Overall, similar top ten to the previous table, Singularity in the lead followed by Don, Jonboy, and Polar Gael. 

Most regular entrants are within 2-3 positions of the NCIC version. 

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