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Paul

Model output discussion - summer rolls on

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The charts are brilliant this morning from start to finish!!gfs has kinda upgraded the heat and pushed that agressive low further west for next weekend!!ecm and ukmo are amazing aswell!!stays hot and humid for england and wales all the way to the end!!

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I think the question for me is while the pattern is set (HP to east, LP in Atlantic), how much scope for adjustment east or west of the pattern is there?

If it backs west a little, then that will make a big difference to temps and bring much more of the country into the hot weather and increase the chances of some serious (35c+) heat.

What would have to happen with the indicators (angular momentum etc.) that @Tamara and others speak of to facilitate this?

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9 hours ago, Leo97t said:

Very nonsensical charts from the 18z. Low rapidly intensifies and then a strong anticyclone is introduced in an odd fashion with quite a hot end to the charts

Call it 'nonsensical' if you wish, or 'superlative', or even 'supercallifragillisticexpiallidocious', or whatever you want...It has absolutely zero effect on the weather...?🌡️☀️🌩️:D

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10 minutes ago, shaky said:

The charts are brilliant this morning from start to finish!!gfs has kinda upgraded the heat and pushed that agressive low further west for next weekend!!ecm and ukmo are amazing aswell!!stays hot and humid for england and wales all the way to the end!!

Yes GFS less progressive, backing away from sweeping the heat away quickly. Hmm, GFS backing down from overly progressive solutions- not entirely surprising 😄

ECM just as hot as GFS, again no sign of heat being swept away. I expect those who pinned their colours to the GFS' previous progressive solutions will be a tad quieter this morning.

Looking at the GEFS - some may have noticed the big 850hpa spike at the end of the control run. So, just for fun, here is a record breaking chart for ya...

0_378_850tmp.png?cb=252

 

Edited by Reverse Zonality

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Nothing changed to much.

More unstable towards the end of the week.

But humid and very warm to hot.

 

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6 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Nothing changed to much.

More unstable towards the end of the week.

But humid and very warm to hot.

 

Yuk ☹️ I hate this hot and humid weather, it's awful. Not much I can do about it though! What is it looking like in terms of precipitation on the ECM and UKMO? Is there any chance of some thunderstorms?

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It's now looking increasingly likely that the next heatwave will miss Wales, Ireland, Scotland & NW England (a relief for many perhaps after all the recent heat) gone are the high 20's/low 30's and instead replaced with high teens or low 20's at best. More cloud is expected with some rain at times (decent rainfall in parts of Ireland & Scotland) but not a washout by any means in Wales in the week ahead rainfall totals on the GFS 0z but this could turn out to be the coolest week we've seen for several weeks 

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Edited by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

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54 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

eh?..... how do you arrive at that conclusion old bean? by believing the (yesterdays) gfs?

there is plenty of heat on offer, its looking at the very worst 'average' which for the height of summer is pretty bloomin good! but there will be a lot of heat, a lot of sun, a lot of dry weather. we would have died for this coming weeks conditions in 07, 08, 12, and other years..

the pattern is unfolding as tamara described, as the anomaly charts suggests, and now even the ops are swinging towards... a lot of warm/very warm/hot/very hot conditions with thunderstorm potential .

we clearly look like getting the best start to august for 15 years, at least as theres no sign of a pattern change .

but i guess its what you call 'heat'. to me its 25c+ , because thats the temp on the old tv maps that they coloured in red (background colour).  :)

No, I based my comments off yesterday's Arpege run which showed a big downgrade in any heat here. Today's runs are better, showing 30C pushing into Yorkshire, but it's still in the balance whether we get any truly hot weather here. And I don't consider 25C hot - very warm perhaps. Yes, we would have killed for such weather in 2007, 2012 etc but they were the very worst of summers - better to have higher standards than that! 

Every good summer here has reached 30C, even some poor summers reached 30C (i.e 2011), so I would expect 30C at least once. 1995 reached 30C 8 times here, so that's a good figure to aim for.

Edited by cheese

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GFS 00z is suggesting Friday could be the hottest day of the year with maybe just squeezing 33C in the SE before a big temperature dive on Saturday.    

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21 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

It's now looking increasingly likely that the next heatwave will miss Wales, Ireland, Scotland & NW England (a relief for many perhaps after all the recent heat) gone are the high 20's/low 30's and instead replaced with high teens or low 20's at best. More cloud is expected with some rain at times (decent rainfall in parts of Ireland & Scotland) but not a washout by any means in Wales in the week ahead rainfall totals on the GFS 0z but this could turn out to be the coolest week we've seen for several weeks 

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I would be truly amazed if Wales and Eastern Scotland only saw highs in the high teens to low 20’s. Should easily reach the mid to high twenties at times next week.

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4 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

GFS 00z is suggesting Friday could be the hottest day of the year with maybe just squeezing 33C in the SE before a big temperature dive on Saturday.    

It has temperature reaching the mid 30’s on Friday, and you can normally add a few degrees to the GFS temperatures. Finely balanced though due to movement and development of the trough to the west.

8287FAAF-9A24-4338-BCB3-705CD0FDCD61.png

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Although the GFS does tend to undercook temps, it also has a tendency to moderate extremes slightly as they get closer to T0. But Friday / Sat look like pushing mid 30s. On current modelling that is.

Maybe the 6z will provide some consistency? Or will the op once again latch onto an outlier type solution?

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Hot run coming in from the GFS. Trough in the Atlantic better positioned to draw the really hot air up from the south and over the UK.

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Wonder if we will see thundery activity later this coming week/next weekend, with fronts trying to push in from the W into very hot air?

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Beauty of a 06z as the plume gets pulled further westwards into central and eastern parts of the uk!!upgrades starting to show!!!another pull westwards and i will start getting even more excited!!

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Yes a short-lived plume again end of next week from the GFS 06z - this time with a slight westward correction meaning more invites to the plume party 😎 Encouragingly this run is full of reload potential and on cue by early August the pattern repeats with another burst of heat from the south.

Great run, hopefully backed up by the 12z later :) 

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Toasty run in the end that GFS 6z, some real heat showing up in the latter stages of many runs, and if it all backs west we could see it earlier.  Here T324:

image.thumb.jpg.cb1b35c695ec030426fc47534ebf0b02.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.3f64b226f58925b191d5c139f53bc931.jpg

😎

Edited by Mike Poole

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Truly incredible Gfs 6z operational, hot reloads throughout and what a finish!..would be awesome if this verifies.☺

06_372_uk2mtmp.png

06_372_mslp850.png

06_372_ukthickness850.png

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Although the maximum temperature record may be hard to beat I have a feeling the night time temperature record could be at risk if the GFS 06z comes off with some very high night time temperatures. I would not fancy trying to sleep through that!

Mins.thumb.png.7a3921dd37fe7d1b432294ca6c95f665.png

The highest ever night time temperature in the UK is 23.9c, one to watch despite the chart being for 6 days in the future and so subject to change. Maximum temperatures reaching the mid 30's ahead of some powerful thunderstorms for Friday. Even hotter in FI but I am not going to pay much attention to anything past 6 days away.

Maxes.thumb.png.216656f5f233bcd4627e5cca8469a653.png  CAPE.thumb.png.135773d7e0b0db58ee3c260705043232.png

Edited by Supacell

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Glancing blow for the red fella as early as T180 on GEFS 6z P19 🔥

image.thumb.jpg.f28d859e7dba42baebc39ed6f26eb657.jpg

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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Glancing blow for the red fella as early as T180 on GEFS 6z P19 🔥

image.thumb.jpg.f28d859e7dba42baebc39ed6f26eb657.jpg

There's some great plume potential in that timeframe..no doubt there will be even more further ahead!😎

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I reckon it’s happening again just like the beast from the east and the first heatwave. Things moving one way and then slowly being corrected back as we get closer to the event. Seems to be a theme this year. NWP underestimating  The influence of tropical forcing? 

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16 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Glancing blow for the red fella as early as T180 on GEFS 6z P19 🔥

image.thumb.jpg.f28d859e7dba42baebc39ed6f26eb657.jpg

We need a western  correction to that ,lol

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Not saying its going to come off, but some of those rogue gfs runs at the end thay we have seen gives us the potential to break the record a few times over. Incredible, interesting times

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