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Paul

Model output discussion - summer rolls on

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Looks a bit so-so to me this morning - some brief ridging, but the Atlantic never too far away for anything long lasting, and high pressure never really taking hold. There’s also a little spoiler trough running through at day 6/7.

Not sure I really trust this 8-14 Dayer either, looks way too optimistic to me. But what do I know!

1D1AF844-5A8E-422A-B637-96F5BA85CC0F.thumb.jpeg.787e5f865018bc5723e32c709ce0e9ab.jpeg

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Yes, agree with above. The runs this morning have introduced a little spoiler low low on Sunday/Monday that moves across northern parts. The ECM makes less of an issue of it than the GFS and UKMO. There’s less of an emphasis on pressure building further north on these runs too, so all in all more continuation of the N/S split we’re going to see develop from tomorrow onwards. 

No heatwave on the cards, best of the warmer, drier weather in the south and more unsettled for northern parts. 

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21 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Looks a bit so-so to me this morning - some brief ridging, but the Atlantic never too far away for anything long lasting, and high pressure never really taking hold. There’s also a little spoiler trough running through at day 6/7.

Not sure I really trust this 8-14 Dayer either, looks way too optimistic to me. But what do I know!

1D1AF844-5A8E-422A-B637-96F5BA85CC0F.thumb.jpeg.787e5f865018bc5723e32c709ce0e9ab.jpeg

as i see them, they are pretty consistent with showing a pretty strong westerly upper flow , perhaps backing a little south of west.  but the pressure appears to be on the +ive side of neutral . so whilst its set to remain unsettled and mobile with no dominant trough nor ridge (lasting long) , it shouldnt be too bad for the south with as ever the north getting the coolest/windiest/wettest conditions .

pretty much normal, average, conditions then, sunnier warmer spells mixed with cloudier/cooler/wetter ones, but with the better conditions becoming more widespread then the poorer ones.

as they are pretty consistent, i do trust them... however, history shows the these expected lengthy spells of a flat jet/upper flow usually dont last long. so it wouldnt surprise me if these charts re-aligned themselves and a more pronounced ridge/trough pattern emerges... 

Edited by mushymanrob

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The GEFS 00z mean indicates the azores high ridging in later this week, especially during the weekend into next week, ergo, becoming warmer and more settled across southern uk but probably staying more changeable and cooler across northern uk. Thereafer, the usual ebb and flow between the azores high v lower heights to the NW as they battle to gain the upper hand but the general rule of thumb is the further south you are, the better the weather would be although some cooler changeable interludes occur even in the south from time to time. As for this week, the s / se have some warm fine weather towards midweek with temps into the mid 20's celsius, perhaps as high as 27c for parts of east anglia and the southeast and today there could be some potent storms across eastern england..most of the uk is mixed this week but as I said at the beginning, there are signs of a much better spell, at least across southern uk towards the end of this week into next week.☺

Edited by Frosty.

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This morning's runs have edged the jet slightly south and run low pressures slightly faster through the pattern. It may be that these runs are too progressive when compared to yesterday's but, as I think I commented a week ago, this does seem to be "thing" with the models at this time of year - when they try to promote ridging from a flat position, it tends to default back to a flatter pattern by about D5. 

However, I'm thinking the lift in the pattern will remain sufficient to give southern areas as much as four decent days between Friday and Monday, with temperatures again exceeding 80F on some days. Added to a decent Tuesday and Wednesday, it all adds up to a fairly good week in these parts. Further north, the jet really has taken its aim and the next inclement burst will never be far away. 

Daring to look further ahead, more and more ensemble runs push heights even further south between D10-D15, so not really inspiring confidence from the middle of next week onwards, but likewise there are options for a continuation of something similar to this coming week, so will need to wait a bit to call the bank holiday period. 

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The Ecm 00z ensemble mean indicates strong azores ridge building in across the south  in time for next weekend and into next week, ergo, becoming warmer and more settled further south but continuing more changeable and cooler further north.🙂

EDM1-120.gif

EDM1-144.gif

EDM0-144.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM0-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

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Clusters at 21 Aug (T192) 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018081300_192.

A front certainly incoming but this morning's op cluster was the second deepest dig south with the trough at this point. 

Slightly uncertain where we go after that - this is D10

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018081300_240.

Probably further Atlantic driven weather coming quickly behind, only question is how far south. 

Edited by Man With Beard

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Have to say I agree. Can’t see where the met are getting their high pressure domination from but we will see. Just looks flat to me with occasional better days thrown into the mix.

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There's quite a lot of high pressure on the Gfs 6z operational with plenty of pleasantly warm fine weather, especially across england and wales..I've seen much worse!..this run would actually deliver a predominantly nice finale to this summer.☺

Edited by Frosty.

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Struggling to find anything seasonal or interesting in the models then came across this:

h850t850eu.png h850t850eu.pngh850t850eu.png

Bank Holiday hot spell anyone? (FI, I know...)

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The GFS 6z continues from other runs this morning what must be quite a dispiriting outlook for northern members looking for a return to sunshine and warmth. Any build of high pressure further north that has been showing into the weekend has been quashed this morning with a new little low pressure that is due to skirt across northern parts Sunday into Monday. The 6z shows high pressure building further north by Tuesday and later into next week where it becomes dominant. However, that is over a week away and has been pushed back from this weekend. Could all change again on the 12z's, so let's hope this morning's runs have placed that low on Sunday/Monday too far south and it trends north.

For southern areas, barring Thursday, the picture is one of general improvement from the last 4/5 days of unsettled weather. Today is showery, but from tomorrow things pick up with dry, warm and quite sunny weather. Temperatures should hit the mid 20's. We introduce some slightly cooler air again on Thursday with some rain for most, then pressure builds to the south once again on Friday and into the weekend with temperatures slowly getting back into the mid-20's. Very uncertain still into next week, some runs continue the N/S theme, others such as the GFS 6z wants to build high pressure more widely. 

Edited by danm

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Looking very 2006 esque at the moment. I see support for it turning hot briefly around the lat week of August heading into first week of September. 

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Differences between the GFS and UKMO in how they’ve handle that low pressure on the weekend. UKMO seems to want to take a disturbance through central parts (kink in the isobars?) whereas the GFS has it further NW with high pressure building further north.

GFS vs UKMO:

 

60B743D6-570E-4D81-9986-98E7C88FF886.png

18837693-E527-45E4-A038-8DB420A25C77.png

Edited by danm

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39 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Also includes a heatwave which is always nice. 

GFSOPUK12_219_48.png

Any idea why this output has it colder inland over Ireland than out at the coast?

 

That makes no sense to me..

Infact it doesn't make any sense at all. 12 degrees as a 2m max. Funny one

Edited by parrotingfantasist

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GEM is the run for me, here at T120, then some less settled spell and high pressure taking total control at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.a219d2745cd2b172cdd90919c00e7fbd.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.d672b1bbe4ff1a7751797f3ff3d84caa.jpg

 

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51 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM is the run for me, here at T120, then some less settled spell and high pressure taking total control at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.a219d2745cd2b172cdd90919c00e7fbd.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.d672b1bbe4ff1a7751797f3ff3d84caa.jpg

 

That GEM 12z day 10 has quite a bit of support from the GEFS 12z and running it further ahead towards the end of August there are some beautiful warm anticyclonic solutions..hopefully the met office will be right about high pressure becoming more dominant in the extended range!☺

Edited by Frosty.

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On the face of it, these are nice Ecm 12z charts for the weekend into early next week, at least for southern uk with very warm potential and with the azores ridge across the south, predominantly fine with sunshine..temperatures in the mid to upper 20's celsius range..not a bad finish either with a ridge of high pressure further south.☺

120_mslp500.png

120_thickuk.png

144_mslp500.png

144_thickuk.png

144_thick.png

168_mslp500.png

168_thickuk.png

216_mslp500.png

240_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.

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2 hours ago, Leo97t said:

Also includes a heatwave which is always nice. 

GFSOPUK12_219_48.png

That's my birthday - would be nice of mother nature to give me such a lovely gift. 😊

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6 minutes ago, cheese said:

That's my birthday - would be nice of mother nature to give me such a lovely gift. 😊

There's as much chance of snow then as that coming true i suspect,the usual GFS rubbish,only fit for the bin.

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13 minutes ago, markyo said:

There's as much chance of snow then as that coming true i suspect,the usual GFS rubbish,only fit for the bin.

It's been hot many times on my birthday, but it's never snowed. Short-lived 24-48 hour plumes are pretty much a standard part of your typical British summer. Even poor summers usually have plume events.

Given the timescale we're talking about I'd say it's not likely to come off but there's really nothing unusual or exceptional about 1 day of 30C heat before something cooler replaces it. 

Edited by cheese

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