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Model output discussion - summer rolls on


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32 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Except the GFS is showing temps into low thirties as soon as a week tomorrow (2nd aug) and mid-high thirties by the Saturday 4th. Even 1st August is in the high twenties (nudging 30) according to this mornings run.

Not sure why 30 would only be reached after the 4th. Well not if the majority of ensemble members are to be believed the heat begins on schedule (around 1st or 2nd August) as it has shown now for days and look to be scorching by the weekend. Doesn't look delayed or any less hot than you are suggesting 

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Yes apologies, wasn’t looking, it’s the second when they hit 30 again. But still not convinced on the warm. Let’s see what ecm brings.

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A lot of responses/feedback about the diagnostic approach encompassing varying aspects of NWP analysis. Some misunderstandings and incorrect interpretations of the purpose of this approach continue to

Yes, it showcases one interpretation of a pattern that is finally evolving (well at least from my own non-NWP perspective) as expected for a time that feels longer than this wonderful summer so far it

So, the much anticipated eventual pattern evolution that started occupying thoughts at the start of this month to Atlantic trough and Scandinavian ridge aligning exceptional heat are now fully in focu

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Rainfall values untill Monday looking good especially for areas already with drought conditions, Also Cape still looking ripe for storms Friday.

viewimage.thumb.png.f9065ed7fc5a8bb56d86d878b99aaaa7.pngviewimage-1.thumb.png.5e294e11db52353a3436ac3c345a81c1.pngcape.thumb.png.554018cd42bbd9b006c7bc45182952c7.png

 

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And.once again taking a look at the precipitation charts from the ecm there is hardly any rain at the weekend onwards for england!!gona be intersting to see whether gfs is right on this one!!the only rainfall really on the ecm is the storms for friday which can be hit and miss!!

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You can how the front could scupper temps as storms move East during Friday at peak heat time.

1.thumb.png.2294919070f08ac02274545f7951bf75.png2.thumb.png.d384abd4659db3f48bd9da32e37f32dd.png

 

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The Gfs 00z operational turns into an absolute scorcher again during the second half of next week with temperatures soaring into the low / mid 30's celsius..fingers crossed!..I think the form ?is for our weather to hot up again following the fresher blip at the weekend / start of next week.☺

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58 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Rainfall values untill Monday looking good especially for areas already with drought conditions, Also Cape still looking ripe for storms Friday.

viewimage.thumb.png.f9065ed7fc5a8bb56d86d878b99aaaa7.pngviewimage-1.thumb.png.5e294e11db52353a3436ac3c345a81c1.pngcape.thumb.png.554018cd42bbd9b006c7bc45182952c7.png

 

Looks like my region ( north east ) could be in the cross hairs for a summer guy fawkes .. boom-crash-bang tastic ! 

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9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 00z operational turns into an absolute scorcher again during the second half of next week with temperatures soaring into the low / mid 30's celsius..fingers crossed!..I think the form ?is for our weather to hot up again following the fresher blip at the weekend / start of next week.☺

Yes-everything on the up.

And along with notable surface cond's into August...

The blip becoming clearly just that.....

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1 hour ago, Polar Maritime said:

You can how the front could scupper temps as storms move East during Friday at peak heat time.

1.thumb.png.2294919070f08ac02274545f7951bf75.png2.thumb.png.d384abd4659db3f48bd9da32e37f32dd.png

 

Fax charts now show the cold front much further west on Friday, with a thundery trough affecting NE England. Higher temperatures for a larger area?

74711070

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One thing also worth keeping an eye on is the overnight minimum temps the current July record is 23.3c in  St James's Park, London set way back in 1948

That could be broken over the few nights

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8 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Fax charts now show the cold front much further west on Friday, with a thundery trough affecting NE England. Higher temperatures for a larger area?

74711070

Very possible going by that chart with human input, Will be interesting how the models continue to handle the front for Friday over the next 48hr and what 'actually' happens..

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10 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Very possible going by that chart with human input, Will be interesting how the models continue to handle the front for Friday over the next 48hr and what 'actually' happens..

Indeed, very interesting. Latest Met Office video forecast going for “36C, possibly higher, if no thunderstorms” on Friday. Ties in with the fax charts.

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BBC forecast also matching that fax output....some places are going to get some monumental storms by the looks of things. Every ingredient you need is going to be there.

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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

BBC forecast also matching that fax output....some places are going to get some monumental storms by the looks of things. Every ingredient you need is going to be there.

What day for the storms?

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You win some, you lose some;

The shift a bit west of the plume has led GFS to develop more of a low on the NW flank of it, like the 00z ECM, which serves to draw cooler air across more of the UK on Saturday and results in a cool, breezy day with a lot of showers around. As someone with state closing in on a record high average maximum and overall mean, this is an unwelcome stumble at the final hurdle. The triple action of the main Atlantic trough’s closest approach, secondary low from the southwest and low on the plume edge occurring simultaneously is a freak combination that no amount of Atlantic westerly retardation can reliably counter.

The more plume, cooler weekend relationship isn’t absolute yet though - UKMO is a notable exception, and keeps the door open on the weakened westerlies struggling to make inroads until Monday.

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GFS deepens that low to a ridiculous degree. Quite funny really. I do believe that we will see LP around for the weekend, but there is no chance it will be like GFS is showing.

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Just now, weirpig said:

Potential storms showing as early as Thursday afternoon on the Arpege.  I guess its a case of radar watching 

Is that the latest 06z run or still 00z?

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