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Model output discussion - summer rolls on

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14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Great to Steve posting in the summer months !! 

UKMET looks fab to me, note the trough to the SW at 144, this hopefully will be the trigger for the heat to build thereafter.

Although as others have alluded to, if it gets to far east the heat will 'leak' eastwards and central Europe will roast..

Difficult to tell where it goes from day 6. The SE looks a shoe in for hot weather but further NW could be influenced more by troughing. Depends to what extent the jet buckles upon the interaction of the trough to the wsw and the HP building to the east. 

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You’d have to say in a normal summer the vast majority of charts being posted would be pretty meh being under he influence of weak Azores extension, I’m struggling to believe people when they say 33c likely and the corresponding Synoptic chart doesn’t have a fat HP anchored just to the south east - but it’s actually happening! 

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1 minute ago, Alderc said:

You’d have to say in a normal summer the vast majority of charts being posted would be pretty meh being under he influence of weak Azores extension, I’m struggling to believe people when they say 33c likely and the corresponding Synoptic chart doesn’t have a fat HP anchored just to the south east - but it’s actually happening! 

Indeed. In fact pressure isn't that high over mainland Europe. Quite odd looking charts!

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4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

You’d have to say in a normal summer the vast majority of charts being posted would be pretty meh being under he influence of weak Azores extension, I’m struggling to believe people when they say 33c likely and the corresponding Synoptic chart doesn’t have a fat HP anchored just to the south east - but it’s actually happening! 

It isn't a normal summer up here- its down right incredible!!

Im kind of awaiting the EC with baited breath now- hopefully its similar to UKMET and we will have an idea what the progression would be,as Crewe says, the direction of travel of the trough to the SW will be key -its difficult to see how the SE can avoid some very hot weather next week, for those further north and west its finely poised..

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I think I'll have perturbation 2 tonight:

image.thumb.jpg.4fc406adf2191ea45c63ef65668771c2.jpg

these just the art of the possible for now, be a fair few days before we pin down whether we or someone else further east gets the real heat from this scenario.

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I think I'll have perturbation 2 tonight:

image.thumb.jpg.4fc406adf2191ea45c63ef65668771c2.jpg

these just the art of the possible for now, be a fair few days before we pin down whether we or someone else further east gets the real heat from this scenario.

This looks hotter

GFSP10EU12_216_2.png

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The GEFS 12z mean is a very warm / hot run for southern uk in particular, it indicates strong potential for continental heat and plenty from the azores high / ridge + scandi high too...still going strong into early August!☺

21_366_500mb.png

21_366_2mtmpmax.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Interesting that the 12z gfs op was at the bottom yet again....that’s about 3/4 in a row sat well below the mean.

B51C105B-FA6A-4701-89CC-468DAE3B61AC.thumb.png.a88b52b7a29bbf0905cab260d52772ea.png

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The GEFS 12z contains some absolutely gob smacking hot potential..sizzling heat in the low to mid 30's celsius..something is afoot!😀😎

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Edited by Frosty.

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Well its a very warm EC out to 168!!

Next frame is crunch for those of us away from the shoe in hot SE of England ..

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Well the ECM pretty much kills off the frontal activity over central/northern England before pushing everything back north again.

ECM1-144.GIF?19-0   ECM1-168.GIF?19-0

ECM0-144.GIF?19-0   ECM0-168.GIF?19-0

A south easterly feed developing across the UK, probably 32/33C potentially in the south east on Thursday and to be honest Monday and Tuesday look like clearing the 30C mark as well.

Week 2 could be very hot here as the Atlantic low has become detached from the main area of low arctic heights hence the system slowing to our west. Day 8 is very very close to furnace conditions, even so that chart would probably get close to 35C across SE England, there would of course be some more widespread thunderstorms breaking out as a shallow low zips NNE along the jetstream.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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ECM with a very different slant than the 00z - low much closer, so starting to turn unsettled from the west - very hot and humid in the SE by next Friday.

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Doesn't happen for us on this run, but you'd only have to get this pattern back west a bit and UK temperature records would be dust. T216:

image.thumb.jpg.af2eca0a85974bc52146afb923bb8dd6.jpg

Finishes with a UK anticyclone, rude to complain at that!

image.thumb.jpg.fab22a5424eeac2323f7fc0fab6b4d08.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole

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ECM wants to kill the 850`s in FI it appears...

ECM0-216.GIF

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ECM looking way too keen to bring that LP across. Look at how it jumps east from 168 to 192, then 216..

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8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM with a very different slant than the 00z - low much closer, so starting to turn unsettled from the west - very hot and humid in the SE by next Friday.

To be honest day 10 will probably end up with the Azores high building back over the UK again as the trough lifts out. Rainfall looks limited or plain non-existent towards the south east. The west could at least get something on this run as rainfall is likely to be heavier and more widespread for a day or so thanks to that thundery breakdown.

ECM1-192.GIF?19-0   ECM1-216.GIF?19-0

There we go;

ECM1-240.GIF?19-0

A much more believable outcome for week two though of course at this range it will change.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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Never thought I'd be refreshing the ECM run every 10 seconds on the 19th of July that's usually a winter habit

Ecm pushes the plume and the possibility of outrageous temperatures to the east but it's so close the being a scorching run. Can we keep getting this lucky this year  with our never ending summer or is our luck about to run out?????

Edited by seabreeze86

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Indeed it does @Captain Shortwave

Just another play on a theme, looks quite progressive compared to other options, going to be a nightmare to forecast with any certainty until 2-3 days away!

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10 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

To be honest day 10 will probably end up with the Azores high building back over the UK again as the trough lifts out. Rainfall looks limited or plain non-existent towards the south east. The west could at least get something on this run as rainfall is likely to be heavier and more widespread for a day or so thanks to that thundery breakdown.

ECM1-192.GIF?19-0   ECM1-216.GIF?19-0

Indeed-even from this standpoint, the mass azhp looks to quickly develop with clear and concise eyeing of northwards progress in uk shores.

All this given that the north west atlantic low(trough)-engages as far into mainland uk as the ecm 12z wants.

So the word blip becomes adiquate-and just a possible notion.

Everything really geared toward a quick evolution back to warm/hot ....rather quickly!!!!

Ens(gfs)compare..6z/12z..highlighting the mean and members firmly in that way of thinking.

MT8_London_ens (3).png

MT8_London_ens (4).png

Edited by tight isobar

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The Ecm 12z T+240 says let's do it all again!.:D.anyway, the heat is coming, low 30's celsius is realistic next week..maybe mid 30's c has a good chance too!:crazy:heat, sunshine, thunderstorms = perfick!

240_mslp500.png

perfick.jpg

Edited by Frosty.

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192_mslp850.png?cb=956 216_mslp850.png?cb=956 240_mslp850.png?cb=956

Talk about a close shave - and fair to say it's found the more organised trough and downstream blocking signal (albeit positioned further east than usual for the Nino regime...)!

You can see why the scope for westward adjustments has me concerned regarding very hot conditions occurring as soon as next weekend. A lot of intense heat is being piled up on the SW side of the blocking high.

In this more eastward scenario for out to 9 days away, it's a case of waiting to see that new ridge from the southwest enticing the Scandinavian high further west - and this is what the idea of a more gradual and anticyclonic route to very hot conditions is based on; ensembles show good appetite for that and the GFS 12z would have gone that way if it hadn't been for the usual progressive bias (sometimes we might as well be using an ape with a sketching board!).

As it happens, the ECM 12z has overrun the blocking high a bit on day 10 - still some catching on to be done it seems - but you can see how easily it could have turned out otherwise.

I think the time has come to go 'Tamara-like' and just sit back for a bit and let these models figure things out more. The changes to the amount and position of ridging Azores-Scandinavia during today have been enormous - a more sudden and rapid response to the evolving tropical signals than I had imagined would occur. So I will try to resist posting much for a few days (frankly, I need the break!) but I'll be keeping a beady eye on things in the background 😁.

 

Oh and for what it's worth, for England and easternmost Wales, ECM 12z has widespread high 20s with 31*C on the SE on Mon, then generally mid-high 20s Tue-Wed, then high 20s on Thu with a localised 30 in the SE. Fri brings spells of rain for most (no, I'm not kidding!) with mid-high 20s, hottest in east. Meanwhile Antwerp hits 37*C so the furnace really does get VERY close.

Edited by Singularity
Temps note

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 12z T+240 says let's do it all again!..anyway, the heat is coming, low 30's celsius is realistic next week..maybe mid 30's c has a good chance too!

240_mslp500.png

This chart is just bonkers for late July - when do you ever see a huge blocking high centred that far north in high summer?! No wonder the Arctic circle and Lapland etc is seeing temps into the 90s! Mad summer.

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The ECM 12z looks far too progressive to me. Pretty sure that low will be corrected west like some of the GFS ensemble members.

Fascinating model watching at the moment!

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