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Model output discussion - summer rolls on

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22 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Good run to run consistency from the GFS, without much backup it must be said, looks like a cracker for high waves on the East coast.

132-602UK.GIF?18-6

UKMO has the deep depression further north but ECMWF and the latest ICON not interested.

GFSOPEU06_120_1.png

ICOOPEU06_120_1.png

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6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That looks similar to 1980, Feb...I do so hope it doesn't happen!💨

Why?

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2 hours ago, Yarmy said:

Andrej (@Recretos) has shown that the GFS/GEFS have a bias toward underestimating strat zonal wind speeds. The CFS possibly too. 

Hi @Yarmy-

That may be a factor- however the modelling thus far has been pretty good-

We are now on the run in towards Novemeber where the stratospheric vortex increases towards the peak -

We have a 6 week lead time now to monitor output V actuals however if we take the journey so far we can see the overall vortex strength sits around 1 SD below ave - I am expecting this to be maintained through October which would imply that as we enter November we will still be in a similar zone.

CFS is persistently forecasting a warming in November - so based on this the yellow line sort if depicts the forecast-

C67555ED-9DFE-4DA2-AD6A-760B34CCC2CA.thumb.jpeg.9895acf61588da34ffaeecae84dfc490.jpeg

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On 16/09/2018 at 20:06, Frosty. said:

There's some snow on the Gfs 12z operational next weekend with arctic air digging south into the far north...hopefully we will see much more of that as we go deeper into autumn..and then winter!👍😉❄❄❄:cold-emoji:

12_165_preciptype.png

12_186_ukthickness850.png

12_171_mslp850.png

Yes

Gorm Blizzards.

airpressure.thumb.png.2ac3ea6c5e3147cb62021d828c35564b.png

uksnowrisk.thumb.png.5bec87a7f682139541dff08bda32758c.png

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2 hours ago, MP-R said:

Not quite sure what you mean but gales in September are nothing untoward - more normal now than in July and August in fact. In fact I forgot to add 2012 to the list. Only June produced near gales that year. Here are my max gusts: 

2011 - 62mph (12th)

2012 - 63mph (24th)

2013 - 46mph (16th)

2017 - 51mph (10th)

Perhapsthe difference with Sunday's low is the strong northwesterly to northerly it would draw down behind it so the east coast would really know about it. The events I've listed above were generally straight westerlies.

All in all rather interesting. Imagine if the ground were saturated like in September 2012!

 

I`ve not recorded anything in September for severe winds at all,

October yes 80mph gusts,anyway Friday storm has backfired,sunday`s will vanish next.

Tomorrow Scotland major storm 65 to 75 mph gusts. 

Edit:just spotted 2011 forgot about that one so recent severe gale upto 76mph,nothing like that before to 1990.

Edited by Snowyowl9

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Let's try again...

EDM1-192.GIF?18-12  gens-21-1-168.png  ECM1-192.GIF?18-12  gfs-0-192.png?6

The 1030mb high is over or close to the UK for the middle of next week on all GFS/ECM output. Which if verified would bring settled weather for all.

9 times out of 10 this would go in the "high confidence" category.

However, after the early September fail, I can't quite bring myself to believe it yet. I really should though!

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Good run to run consistency from the GFS, without much backup it must be said, looks like a cracker for high waves on the East coast.

132-602UK.GIF?18-6

GFS has been very consistent in modelling this scenario. 

If it’s still like this tomorrow morning, then very real attention should be paid towards this. Spring tides will be hitting their peak on Sunday! We could well be rivalling the 5th December 2013 in terms of storm surge, with no real improvements to sea defences made since then either. 

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2 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

GFS has been very consistent in modelling this scenario. 

If it’s still like this tomorrow morning, then very real attention should be paid towards this. Spring tides will be hitting their peak on Sunday! We could well be rivalling the 5th December 2013 in terms of storm surge, with no real improvements to sea defences made since then either. 

Your not far from there, you could book a hotel right on the coast somewhere.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Your not far from there, you could book a hotel right on the coast somewhere.

I’ll be working on Sunday until 6pm, high water should be around 7-8pm. If this does come off, I’ll be setting the camera up possibly around Kings Lynn by the river Great Ouse or further up the Norfolk coast around Hunstanton, Brancaster, possibly Wells-next-the-sea. 

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Following the potential weekend storm the Gfs 6z operational goes on to produce a very pleasant anticyclonic outlook from around next midweek onwards.☺

06_225_mslp500.png

06_276_mslp500.png

06_276_uk2mtmp.png

06_348_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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38 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I’ll be working on Sunday until 6pm, high water should be around 7-8pm. If this does come off, I’ll be setting the camera up possibly around Kings Lynn by the river Great Ouse or further up the Norfolk coast around Hunstanton, Brancaster, possibly Wells-next-the-sea. 

Old Hunstanton will be best, I think. You can stand on the clifftops and get the full vista.

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According to the GEFS 6z mean, high pressure is on the way next week, it indicates most of the uk would become settled, lasting longest further south through to the end of september / early october or thereabouts.☺🌞

21_156_500mb.png

21_180_500mb.png

21_204_500mb.png

21_228_500mb.png

21_252_500mb.png

21_276_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.
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With respect to the possible weekend storm both the UKMO and GEM have something along the lines of the GFS being modelled, between +120 and +144 at least:

UKMO     image.thumb.gif.3d3cdcf8091749f84f5c7b4c0394afd7.gif

GEM        image.thumb.png.753a6460319bf5aad79b1ca11dd23fad.png

GFS         image.thumb.png.fced36377e41a53e9387ad7f5e160549.png

Only the ECM doesn't have a deep depression passing across the UK over this period:

+120   image.thumb.gif.c4947875a3f1989fdd00182378651870.gif.   +144 image.thumb.gif.d6768ccf586b818b9d57aee7baa53f2e.gif

I would prefer the ECM to be right on this occasion because for me it's too early in the autumn season for violent storms - that can wait for when the leaves have fallen.  But it's impossible to ignore the possibility that the other three models may have the right solution and the ECM has yet to join the dots.....

 

Edited by Sky Full
.
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This is a worrying storm beginning to develop!

09E1234A-9F00-497A-8705-39F20A4F24C1.thumb.png.6fd617ba4e9b929d2505448c3d3ffe83.png

Wow

BEBD60A1-4904-49B1-8234-A011C31DDACE.thumb.png.a482256a74fc3649f1d1f57426eca942.png

Edited by Steve Murr
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Quite alarming wind gusts with Sunday low on 12z GFS, further south too, be bad enough in depths of winter, but with trees in full leaf …

117.thumb.png.57fe11a289f0e5723b980fa03eba0b22.png120.thumb.png.461510b3ed29c97a140716a1e0b71edd.png123.thumb.png.cbb711a052a5eb5ba2246125cb724732.png

Be interesting to see if the 12z ECMWF begins to run with the deep low idea later.

Edited by Nick F
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8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

This is a worrying storm beginning to develop!

09E1234A-9F00-497A-8705-39F20A4F24C1.thumb.png.6fd617ba4e9b929d2505448c3d3ffe83.png

Wow

BEBD60A1-4904-49B1-8234-A011C31DDACE.thumb.png.a482256a74fc3649f1d1f57426eca942.png

Yet on the ukmo its gone steve!!these are crazy differences at a short time frame now!!but its ukmo and ecm v gfs now!!!that is one crazy gfs 12z which would give populated areas a battring!!whose gona be right?

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The GFS 12Z run certainly seems to be continuing to have its obsession with that naughty Low for Sunday:

ADE8C4FE-2909-4B7F-9143-731BE4A03486.thumb.png.a8f896d85a0ad1e4ae224884ecb9fa25.png

078BC0DD-DA10-4C58-93A6-F4CB9976A75E.thumb.png.90137741769018740a659f751ffc9099.png

Along with a biggish temperature gradient and a clash in airmass systems (using 850 hpa temperature chart as an example):

F1562359-5AC7-4452-9B7B-7A11F15024B1.thumb.png.782d748f1c68573c8cd60e528fe31b7c.png

One of the aspects as some people say helping to inject power into the Low Pressure system.

The fact the GFS doesn’t wanna discard this beast is definitely starting to get a little worrying, although I still can’t help but think it’s over doing things. 

And although probably less of a focus at the moment, I’d love to see the likes of the GEFS 06Z ensemble mean and ECMWF 00Z High Pressure setups with the Azores ridging influencing our island next week occur, as one or two more spells of Summery weather would be welcome before Autum stamps out Summer for good. There could be trouble if not.

F04C3155-D3D4-4337-B1AF-125DF4788CF2.thumb.jpeg.6726d150f99c97d48cef5d973088c9d5.jpeg

The High Pressure setups shown on the likes of the ECMWF etc quite likely depending on how the storms behaves during the weekend (if we get one), and how much the Azores or Atlantic ridging can deflect the Lows away to the North of it. Always a possible chance the Jetstream could prove to be a little too powerful and flatten out any ridging to our West in the Atlantic, with more of a changeable Westerly flow continuing. (Though hopefully not).

Edit: In the meantime, looks like there will be further disturbed weather to come during the next few days with Low Pressure to the North West of the U.K. bringing further spells of wind and rain for places, especially over Northern and Western parts.

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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26 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

This is a worrying storm beginning to develop!

09E1234A-9F00-497A-8705-39F20A4F24C1.thumb.png.6fd617ba4e9b929d2505448c3d3ffe83.png

Wow

BEBD60A1-4904-49B1-8234-A011C31DDACE.thumb.png.a482256a74fc3649f1d1f57426eca942.png

GFS sure is showing one nasty storm for Sunday. 80-90mph gusts even inland. I still don't think it'll happen (given GFS is pretty much on its own) but if it did, there would be fairly widespread destruction due to falling trees and structures.

The GFS shows something that would warrant a MetOffice red warning.

Edit to add- the GFS op evolution has little to no support even within its own ensembles so I really wouldn't place much stock in the op suggestions.

Edited by CreweCold
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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

GFS sure is showing one nasty storm for Sunday. 80-90mph gusts even inland. I still don't think it'll happen (given GFS is pretty much on its own) but if it did, there would be fairly widespread destruction due to falling trees and structures.

The GFS shows something that would warrant a MetOffice red warning.

Yes, limited support from the other NWP this evening (UKMO and ICON following this morning's ECMWF with a much shallower system affecting southern parts).

UKMOPEU12_120_1.png

ICOOPEU12_120_1.png

 

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Who will come out with the credit at the end of this? GFS has been forecasting oblivion for a couple of days solid now, UKMO and ECM just don’t want to know really, and tonight’s 12z ukmo has no feature at all!

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That GFS 12z run certainly grabs the attention, especially given how consistent it has been modelling something similar.

Obviously the wind would be a major worry but the amount of rainfall projected could cause real flood issues locally (As modelled)

gfs-2-108.png?12gfs-2-114.png?12gfs-2-120.png?12

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14 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Who will come out with the credit at the end of this? GFS has been forecasting oblivion for a couple of days solid now, UKMO and ECM just don’t want to know really, and tonight’s 12z ukmo has no feature at all!

It is there, it just doesn't develop it. Here it is off the SE coast

UW120-21.GIF?18-18

Originally no other model wanted push another through over the high but theya re all coming around now, even if they don't have the rapid cyclogenesis of GFS

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By the way, that's a force 12 (mean) hitting E Anglia on this GFS. Would be very serious if at high tide. 

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I'm surprised no one has mentioned the FAX charts at 12Z Saturday?! 

UKMO & FAX, respectively:

UKMOPEU12_96_1.thumb.png.9bc6c4f48910a0fc27edd56d6b74f6c0.png BRAEU_120.thumb.gif.a1155b059465fbc40e69d12703364949.gif

A good few differences there..

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