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Roger J Smith

July 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

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46 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Brilliant response.  Maybe there's some form of lag between solar cycles and climatology?  11-12 years is very consistent.  Was 1973 a +19*C CET?

Only three 19C months have occurred and all since 1983. 

The link to solar activity is relatively weak (July 2013 for example was near the peak of our cycle).

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3 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

There were no previous 19*C+ months in the CET record until July 1983; since then two more have occurred. 

That is the main theme here. Our climate is warming, the warming is man made (no matter what BS, PC, excuses people want to use). Our influence is not going away.
That doesn't mean every month i going to be a warm record, but, values approaching and exceeding record highs are going to be much more common.

We hardly blink an eye at daily record high values nowadays. How might the reaction be to a daily record low though.... I think we all know, and that in itself says a lot.

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3 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

That is the main theme here. Our climate is warming, the warming is man made (no matter what BS, PC, excuses people want to use). Our influence is not going away.
That doesn't mean every month i going to be a warm record, but, values approaching and exceeding record highs are going to be much more common.

We hardly blink an eye at daily record high values nowadays. How might the reaction be to a daily record low though.... I think we all know, and that in itself says a lot.

Not being rude, but this should be in the appropriate thread, certainly not this one, how many other threads have been derailed...

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On 19 July 2018 at 12:25, Weather-history said:

Exceptionally dry June-July periods for England and Wales (<60mm)

1800: 35.8

1868: 36.5

1976: 48.8

1921: 39.6

1995: 57.8

1887: 58.9

 

 

About 25mm up to the 20th July

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Sunny Sheffield at 19.4C +3.5C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

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12 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

How so?

If you had said western bias, I would have agreed.

Eastern CET,use to be the western one used.

Well this morning the plume and heat is going to Europe as the atlantic wakes up,much cooler outlook.

 

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2 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Not being rude, but this should be in the appropriate thread, certainly not this one, how many other threads have been derailed...

Not rude at all. You're probably right. It's unfortunate that some threads in the past got derailed the moment someone mentioned the climate. It just seems sad that we're still in a culture where people can't hardly even mention the "C" word, especially while records are being set, for fear of causing a ruckus. 

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19.2 to the 21st

3.2 above the 61 to 90 average

2.7 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________ 

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd 

Current low this month 19.2 to the 20th & 21st

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19.2 to the 22nd

3.3 above the 61 to 90 average

2.7 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________ 

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd 

Current low this month 19.2 to the 20th, 21st & 22nd

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Sunny Sheffield down to 19.3C +3.3C above normal. Rainfall unchanged. Today will big a fair jump in values considering it's getting towards the end of the month. Bunging in the present gfs values in still shows that we will fail to break records in this month but will be 2nd warmest on record for us.

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19.4 to the 23rd

3.4 above the 61 to 90 average

2.9 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________ 

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd 

Current low this month 19.2 to the 20th, 21st & 22nd

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Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

19.4C to the 24th... +2.9 (20.7: +4.1)
19.4C to the 25th... +2.8 (19.0: +2.0)
19.5C to the 26th... +2.9 (21.9: +4.7)
19.5C to the 27th... +2.9 (20.4: +3.2)
19.5C to the 28th... +2.8 (18.2: +0.8)
19.4C to the 29th... +2.8 (19.3: +1.6)
19.5C to the 30th... +2.8 (20.1: +2.7)
19.4C to the 31st... +2.7 (16.3: -0.9)

The extreme warmth forecast for the end of the month is now absent from the GFS, thus the CET holding mostly steady from now seems most likely.
At the moment, a range of 19.1C to 19.7C before corrections seems quite likely, and 18.6C to 19.8C after corrections. Close to 19C seems like the best bet at the moment.


CET_24_7_18.thumb.JPG.a7ac3f4aeae2879d0d515f6f945401e4.JPG

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Sunny Sheffield at 19.5C +3.4C above normal. Rainfall unchanged. However with the GFS finally going for a more unsettled outlook the final figure could well be around this point.

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19.4 to the 24th

3.5 above the 61 to 90 average

2.9 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________ 

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd 

Current low this month 19.2 to the 20th, 21st & 22nd

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Sunny Sheffield up to 19.6C +3.5C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

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19.4 to the 25th

3.4 above the 61 to 90 average

2.8 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________ 

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd 

Current low this month 19.2 to the 20th, 21st & 22nd

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sunny Edmonton is at 18.3c which is just over 1c above normal..day time max are bang on ave at 24c mins are a couple degress higher than normal at 12c

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Sunny Sheffield back down to 19.5C +3.3C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

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Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

19.4C to the 26th... +2.8 (20.8: +3.6)
19.5C to the 27th... +2.9 (21.9: +4.7)
19.4C to the 28th... +2.8 (17.7: +0.3)
19.4C to the 29th... +2.7 (16.8: -0.9)
19.3C to the 30th... +2.6 (16.7: -0.7)
19.2C to the 31st... +2.5 (16.7: -0.5)

Looks like the coolest days of the month will arrive in the last few. 50/50 whether we remain above 19C after corrections methinks

CET_25_7_18.thumb.JPG.4216b9af6d05e17102c00d79242ed1bc.JPG

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Sunny Sheffield up to 19.7C +3.4C above normal. Rainfall up 7.4mm 13% of average rainfall

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19.5 to the 26th

3.5 above the 61 to 90 average

2.9 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________________ 

Current high this month 20.9 to the 2nd 

Current low this month 19.2 to the 20th, 21st & 22nd

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Max yesterday of 29.9C, provisionally the warmest for the CET since July 1st, 2015 at 31.3C.

EDIT: Got that wrong! Warmest since July 19th, 2016, at 30.9C!

Edited by BornFromTheVoid

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19 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Here's the forecast based on the 12z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

19.4C to the 26th... +2.8 (20.8: +3.6)
19.5C to the 27th... +2.9 (21.9: +4.7)
19.4C to the 28th... +2.8 (17.7: +0.3)
19.4C to the 29th... +2.7 (16.8: -0.9)
19.3C to the 30th... +2.6 (16.7: -0.7)
19.2C to the 31st... +2.5 (16.7: -0.5)

Looks like the coolest days of the month will arrive in the last few. 50/50 whether we remain above 19C after corrections methinks

CET_25_7_18.thumb.JPG.4216b9af6d05e17102c00d79242ed1bc.JPG

I think we should finish higher than 19.2C before corrections- I don't think the last 3 days are going to be as cool as the GFS suggests- relatively high minima will prevent that I think. It certainly would be a shame to drop below 19C after corrections- a 19C month really is such a rarity and a special event.

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2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

I think we should finish higher than 19.2C before corrections- I don't think the last 3 days are going to be as cool as the GFS suggests- relatively high minima will prevent that I think. It certainly would be a shame to drop below 19C after corrections- a 19C month really is such a rarity and a special event.

1983 was a scorcher after your name at 19.5c

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Sunny Sheffield at 19.8C +3.5C above normal. This is the high point of the month. Rainfall 10.6mm 18.6% of the months average

Sunny Sheffield likely to end around 19.4C which would make the 2nd warmest. Rainfall wise should finish in the top ten driest. The driest was 12.4mm July 1977.

The fact that we are not going to beat July 2006 which hit an average of 20C shows how remarkable that month was which was also a wet month courtesy of 46.4mm in two days.

Edited by The PIT

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