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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards

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2 hours ago, billywizz65 said:

Oh, I hope you're right. Sitting outside with a nice warm bbq coal fire to keep warm 

15327979444698985558614742204197.jpg

was a none event, couple of rumbles and a bit of a shower.....I got to finish my pipe in peace.

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31 minutes ago, Neglectedchicken said:

South of Peterborough next to a1(m) road, been very lively today

Oh right cool I'm just north of Peterborough near spalding. Anything else going happen tonight

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 29 Jul 2018 - 05:59 UTC Mon 30 Jul 2018

ISSUED 20:44 UTC Sat 28 Jul 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper low will drift westwards away from the Hebrides on Sunday, but leaving strong mid/upper flow across the British Isles. A marked shortwave will round the base of this upper low, quickly running northeastwards - over the Irish Sea by mid-afternoon - reaching the Northern Isles during the late evening. This will drive a surface low and frontal system northeastwards across England, Wales and parts of Scotland, with a broad warm sector characterised by dewpoints of 16-18C. A mid-level dry intrusion will overspread the area during the afternoon hours, resulting with SMZ (shallow moist zone) conditions.

 
It is likely that, after an initial period of dynamic frontal rainfall, convective elements will develop during the afternoon and early evening hours. Strongly-sheared profiles, including some backing of the low-level winds, will allow line convection segments to form capable of producing some heavy bursts of rain and gusty winds. Lightning is considered a fairly low probability due to limited cloud depth and rather meagre instability, though these types of scenarios often produce low and turbulent cloud bases.
 
Close to the low centre, towards northern England / southern Scotland, a period of stronger forcing and shear overlapping some marginal instability (with dry intrusion aloft) will evolve during the afternoon and early evening. Some slightly deeper convection could develop on the wrap-around feature, perhaps capable of produce some sporadic lightning and strong gusts of wind - but confidence is not high enough to upgrade to SLGT for now. This area of interest will continue to slide NNE-wards towards the Northern Isles.
 
On Sunday night, an increasing coverage of showers will develop over western Ireland and the Hebrides as an upper cold pool approaches from the Atlantic - perhaps with some isolated lightning activity.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-07-29

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8 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Convectively, the most active day of this summer thus far. Wasn't difficult though

 

Someone posted that I have a rotating cell at 3.11  or 17.15 on the timer. That cell did rapidly develop into a thunderstorm cell.

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13 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Someone posted that I have a rotating cell at 3.11  or 17.15 on the timer. That cell did rapidly develop into a thunderstorm cell.

It may be just my eyes but also a rotating cell around 4:30pm (3:00 on your timelapse). It misses your location but I am sure there is rotation on that.

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2 minutes ago, Supacell said:

It may be just my eyes but also a rotating cell around 4:30pm (3:00 on your timelapse). It misses your location but I am sure there is rotation on that.

For some reason, it caught my attention the cell and I took a photo of it

On5Um2Q.jpg

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13 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

For some reason, it caught my attention the cell and I took a photo of it

On5Um2Q.jpg

I can see the updraft and inflow, was it producing any thunder? Rolling back the radar there are a line of heavy showers and thunderstorms to your west at this time, but not sure if they are too far away to be this as not sure how good your view is to the west.

radar.thumb.PNG.e60bed03c417ed57304d1a9de977b0d7.PNG

An hour later at 5:30pm, this cell may have been visible to your west and would be the cell you mentioned at 5:15pm. 

image.thumb.png.a5a14d7d68b91112477ea713e7e705c6.png

Edited by Supacell

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 I was under that cell, it was producing very frequent intracloud lightning every few seconds , and 'crackly' sounding thunder, with just the odd cg deep boom type thunder

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23 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I can see the updraft and inflow, was it producing any thunder? Rolling back the radar there are a line of heavy showers and thunderstorms to your west at this time, but not sure if they are too far away to be this as not sure how good your view is to the west.

radar.thumb.PNG.e60bed03c417ed57304d1a9de977b0d7.PNG

An hour later at 5:30pm, this cell may have been visible to your west and would be the cell you mentioned at 5:15pm. 

image.thumb.png.a5a14d7d68b91112477ea713e7e705c6.png

Yes they are the cells, could hear distant thunder and lightning was visible occasionally.

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 Rain stopped, sun trying to come out, very humid, Temp rising. 

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On 28/07/2018 at 08:56, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Wow that reminds me of that storm they had couple of years back over Essen, Germany!

Just imagine if there was more clear sky around the periphery and it was a touch later in the evening - from a distance that anvil lighting up would have been spectacular!

That would be the “Armageddon storm” on the 9th June 2014. Hit cologne, Aachen, Düsseldorf, Essen and Munster hard.

I think that storm in this video is the same one that passed over here. It was just constant rumbling for over an hour! 

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1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

 Rain stopped, sun trying to come out, very humid, Temp rising. 

Is there a chance of a repeat of yesterday.    A very good thunder day here yesterday just like the old days,  with thunder rolls you just lost count of in one particular cell,  and other electrical cells  coming along later , like buses these thunderstorms, could not believe my luck  when I heard round 3 rumbling in the distance with my name on it , surely not again . this is the NW 

Edited by IanR

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55 minutes ago, IanR said:

Is there a chance of a repeat of yesterday.    A very good thunder day here yesterday just like the old days,  with thunder rolls you just lost count of in one particular cell,  and other electrical cells  coming along later , like buses these thunderstorms, could not believe my luck  when I heard round 3 rumbling in the distance with my name on it , surely not again . this is the NW 

 Think it’s too late now: nothings happened so have to throw the towel in for today.

You did way better than me yesterday. I had about 4 rumbles in the end. Still happy with that. 

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1 hour ago, IanR said:

Is there a chance of a repeat of yesterday.    A very good thunder day here yesterday just like the old days,  with thunder rolls you just lost count of in one particular cell,  and other electrical cells  coming along later , like buses these thunderstorms, could not believe my luck  when I heard round 3 rumbling in the distance with my name on it , surely not again . this is the NW 

Higher SST’s are certainly making a difference around our island at present. Normally the cold water would kill them off. 

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South being left well alone this weekend from anything convective. Looking forward to a bit of a step up next week as it’s been a long, long time and a lot of forecasts have passed without verifying much more than a rumble or two (if we’ve been lucky).

Nice to see the rain at last though - and good it’s consistent driving rain and nothing too torrential - good for the ground anyway.

As usual it all happens once the real heat shifts - one thing and not the other. But seeing plants, grass and trees finally getting a soaking is great 👍 

Trying not to feel to glum - and instead looking for the good in having no thunder at all for months on end. Something to do with a good nitrogen balance, perhaps? Hmmmm.

However, seeing the SSTs are going up now could mean we will see a late summer of storms blossom for these parts. Would be nice to have a few events too, and not just the obligatory one-off.

I’ve found it helps to look at it this way: it really doesn’t need to be this stormless here - we just need the steering winds to be favourable and things will kick-off around these parts for sure - given enough energy and some forcing from the Atlantic or the continent. I put it down to a run of very bad convective luck - considering the whopping heat we’ve been seeing.

Most frustrating thing of all is that I don’t even mind driving to see storms - so long as they aren’t always miles and miles and miles away (at the moment everything decent seems to happens north of a diagonal line from Gloucester to Kings Lynn, which even for beasts like the other day is a ridiculous drive for me).

Maybe some decent active cells in Hampshire or Sussex, for a change? We’re spoiled around here - perfect vantage points dotted all over the county, but with nothing to watch they aren’t proving very useful at the moment.

Meh.

Off to Paris tomo for one night for a short work trip - Accuweather suggests some storm opportunities there, so maybe my presence won’t deter them from passing by... 😄

As always, expecting the worst but planning for the best...

🎶  it’s coming home it’s coming home, thunder’s coming home! 🎶 

☺️

Now bring the hot stuff back so I can sit in the garden again, pleeeeeasse!!

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Well it's a long way off in model terms, but we now have another potential plume next weekend, heres to a thundery August after what's been a glorious but slightly thunder free summer so far. 

 

ukcapeli (1).png

ukcapeli.png

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38 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Well it's a long way off in model terms, but we now have another potential plume next weekend, heres to a thundery August after what's been a glorious but slightly thunder free summer so far. 

 

ukcapeli (1).png

ukcapeli.png

Yes, not much quantity wise, but the quality of the storms this year have been up there amongst the greatest! There’s been barely any usual SW-NE or W-E daytime homegrowns at all this year, with yesterday being the exception! They’ve all been of the continental variety, I.e mad anvil crawler style storms! 

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28 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Yes, not much quantity wise, but the quality of the storms this year have been up there amongst the greatest! There’s been barely any usual SW-NE or W-E daytime homegrowns at all this year, with yesterday being the exception! They’ve all been of the continental variety, I.e mad anvil crawler style storms! 

Completely agree with this. I would rather a year like this than a year with lots of weak thundery showers. With the storms at the end of April, the end of May and then last Thursday/Friday I have had an awesome year for storm chasing. The quality of the storms have been a step up from previous years IMO. We normally get at least one big continental type storm day in a year but this year I have chased on 6 big storm days and sometimes been treated to multiple big storms in a day. This past Friday offered up 6 storms in one day.

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7 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Completely agree with this. I would rather a year like this than a year with lots of weak thundery showers. With the storms at the end of April, the end of May and then last Thursday/Friday I have had an awesome year for storm chasing. The quality of the storms have been a step up from previous years IMO. We normally get at least one big continental type storm day in a year but this year I have chased on 6 big storm days and sometimes been treated to multiple big storms in a day. This past Friday offered up 6 storms in one day.

Definitely. It’s been a great year in that respect. Going on chases to capture amazing storms such as Thursday and Friday makes it worth every drop of fuel! 

Heres the departure of the storm that hit us. The frequency of thunder is unreal. If you’ve got earphones or headphones, plug them in! 

 

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57 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Yes, not much quantity wise, but the quality of the storms this year have been up there amongst the greatest! There’s been barely any usual SW-NE or W-E daytime homegrowns at all this year, with yesterday being the exception! They’ve all been of the continental variety, I.e mad anvil crawler style storms! 

 

24 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Completely agree with this. I would rather a year like this than a year with lots of weak thundery showers. With the storms at the end of April, the end of May and then last Thursday/Friday I have had an awesome year for storm chasing. The quality of the storms have been a step up from previous years IMO. We normally get at least one big continental type storm day in a year but this year I have chased on 6 big storm days and sometimes been treated to multiple big storms in a day. This past Friday offered up 6 storms in one day.

Oh yeah i totally agree, id take a couple of plume setups with powerful storms over thundery showers any day. It probably only feels like we've had a thunder free summer due to the total lack of storms in June and most of July, i know late April and May delivered some cracking storms 

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