South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 21/05/2018 Onwards

[Guest]

Just now, CheesepuffScott said:

And it has just brightened up here 20 miles north!

The sun was out and we had clear blue skies ten minutes ago 

fog is a big concern here this week

[CheesepuffScott]

Just now, Alderc said:

The sun was out and we had clear blue skies ten minutes ago 

fog is a big concern here this week

Yeah, I went to Bournemouth beach last weekend and the sea fog messed up my visit to the beach for an hour - and I'm heading to Weymouth tomorrow, hopefully sea fog doesn't make my visit an issue too much.

[Mapantz]

Made it to 22.2°C today. Currently 19.9°C 

Some cauliflower Cu trying to grow as well.

[Guest]

Also if the fog don’t get us and the clag probably will tomorrow, going to be a lot debris left over (and probably messy rain) from those French storms.

[Leon1]

Wow! Just looked out the window and in half an hour it has gone from looking dull, grey and overcast and the sun is now peaking through and there are amazing streaks of blue in between the clouds.

[Dorsetbred]

I was in Bristol for most of the day....glum and wet...Glad to get out and head back to Dorset, warm sunshine welcomed us with and increase in temperature of about 9C..

[CheesepuffScott]

1 hour ago, Leon1 said:

Wow! Just looked out the window and in half an hour it has gone from looking dull, grey and overcast and the sun is now peaking through and there are amazing streaks of blue in between the clouds.

Sunset looked good from here.

[matt111]

11 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

Sunset looked good from here.

Looked good over the forest on the way home just now. Feels quite a bit fresher here than it did in London earlier even hhiughnjt was dull up there. 

[Leon1]

17 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

Sunset looked good from here.

Sadly the blue skies only lasted for 30 mins, then the clouds came over again, but light ones and I missed the sunset.  

[dec10snow]

Ooooh... From Convective weather:

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 26 May 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 27 May 2018 

ISSUED 22:40 UTC Fri 25 May 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Plume events are often fraught with uncertainty, primarily due to poor NWP modelling of deep convection generated by mid-level instability. In these types of situations, including today, it is best to take a broad-brush approach and try to highlight trends, rather than specifics - basically, expect the unexpected! The latest model guidance is much further north and a lot quicker with developments than data had been suggesting just 12 hours ago. It is likely some areas within the SLGT could remain lightning free, and the forecast may need to be altered if confidence improves - it rarely goes to plan...

 

There are reasonable signs for an area of elevated convection to be drifting across S / SE England at the beginning of this forecast period, continuing to move NW-wards through Saturday morning. Questionable as to how much lightning there will be with this activity given weakening instability, though forecast profiles do suggest some reasonable shear to help with some organisation. Either way, whatever activity there is will likely weaken with time as it continues to migrate across the Midlands and into Wales.

A secondary pulse of elevated convection may develop and move NW-wards across SW England late morning into the afternoon, which would have a better chance of producing lightning - but this is a weaker signal amongst model guidance.

 

This then leaves a window of opportunity during the afternoon for surface-based thunderstorms to occur. However, the atmosphere will be largely capped by a warm nose at 850-900mb, and so despite increasing instability it is possible very little will actually develop. Greatest potential perhaps across Dorset, Somerset and Gloucestershire, but this very much dependent on enough surface heating to break the cap, which is uncertain due to the potential for extensive mid/upper level cloud associated with earlier elevated convection. Should an isolated thunderstorm develop, it may be severe, capable of producing hail up to 2.0cm in diameter and localised surface water flooding.

 

The potential for thunderstorms then increases during Saturday evening and night, with numerous elevated thunderstorms likely to develop over the English Channel containing frequent lightning and perhaps some hail. The vast majority of model guidance would suggest thunderstorms will move to the NW, putting SW England and the West Country at greatest risk, broadly Isle of Wight westwards. However, ECMWF has been very consistent over several runs (now joined by 12z EURO4) to produce a much more bifurcated flow, which would then take a very active cluster of thunderstorms NE-wards over Hampshire, Sussex and towards the London area by the early hours of Sunday.

Given the large spread of possible areas affected, it is difficult to pin down a MDT area with any significant confidence - though worth stressing the ECMWF (and EURO4) tends to have a good handle of elevated convection, and its consistent signal over multiple runs is somewhat reassuring. As a result, have followed these trends for the MDT - though if other models are correct, this may need shifting westwards to cover more of Devon and Cornwall.

[Guest]

Looks nice doesn’t but before later nuisance shower activity likely to ruin the morning, surpress temps and sunshine until st least lunchtime! Again another day likely to be well below forecast here!

[knocker]

Sunny, some Ci, temp 11C

[Azazel]

Overcast, cool and a little breezy here this morning.

[CheesepuffScott]

Cloudy, dry for now

[Dorsetbred]

Morning all, currently 15.6C and a covering of mid level cloud as the forecasted breeze increases in strength. Not a good start for the grackles that arrived last night in prep for a fine, hot and sunny bank holiday, oh well.

[Leon1]

Am I right in saying that if this was winter we would be in the middle of a very prolonged cold spell?

I mean mainly last week when we had easterly winds and blocking to the north?

Edited May 26, 2018 by Leon1

[lettice]

After a grey start yesterday, turned into a sunny afternoon and evening with temps of rising to 21c at 5pm
Light grey skies earlier, now some blue sky making an appearance through the cloud here this morning, 18.7c already.
Wind has picked up a little now 12mph NE.

[CheesepuffScott]

Getting the coach to Weymouth in about 3 hours time.

[Southern Storm]

Morning all, sun starting to break through here in Christchurch, looks like an interesting day for us southaners!

Now I was looking forward to watching the champions league final tonight, but mother nature is being quite flirtatious

Also is anyone chasing tonight? 

 

 

[SteveB]

When is the sun supposed to be coming out, doesn't feel particularly nice out while walking the dog. Can't see nothing other murky conditions again today, a bit like the previous two days. 

[Southern Storm]

9 minutes ago, SteveB said:

When is the sun supposed to be coming out, doesn't feel particularly nice out while walking the dog. Can't see nothing other murky conditions again today, a bit like the previous two days. 

Where abouts are you? Admittedly the sky is quite milky here, but the sun still  feels quite strong!  it's also quite breezy. I would expect most of our region to brighten up sooner rather than later! 

For locations west of Christchurch that is

 

Edited May 26, 2018 by Christchurch storm nut

[EllyTech]

Hello all. Well, an interesting day. Very thankful for the rain lately and it looks potentially stormy later. Rain here just now. Feeling claggy with the higher humidity today.

Feels warmer -

Temp 13C  Humidity 96%  Dewpoint 12C 

[SteveB]

4 minutes ago, Christchurch storm nut said:

Where abouts are you? Admittedly the sky is quite milky here, but the sun still  feels quite strong!  it's also quite breezy. I would expect most of our region to brighten up sooner rather than later! 

For locations west of Christchurch that is

 

Weston-super-Mare, very overcast and cool 

Temp 15.7c

[EllyTech]

24 minutes ago, Christchurch storm nut said:

Morning all, sun starting to break through here in Christchurch, looks like an interesting day for us southaners!

Now I was looking forward to watching the champions league final tonight, but mother nature is being quite flirtatious

Also is anyone chasing tonight? 

 

 

Will probably sit it out with the veg. lol. Lovely open landscape where they are growing.

[CheesepuffScott]

Sun’s just come out, feels lovely now.