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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

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Sun is out properly now and temp is responding quickly. Currently 24.1°C. 

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Between what's times are storms going to kick off because every forecast says different. 

I guess it's another day of radar watching. 

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25 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Sun is out properly now and temp is responding quickly. Currently 24.1°C. 

27.5 here. The humidity is rising and I tried moving my weather thing in different shady spots of the garden and I'm still getting that temperature. 

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18 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

27.5 here. The humidity is rising and I tried moving my weather thing in different shady spots of the garden and I'm still getting that temperature. 

What are the skies like?

(Pls don’t say “purple and red and on fire” 😉)

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Don't think there will be anything down south today now, maybe the odd isolated storm.

Best place today is in the NW / Midlands and prospects are dependant on how well that line of storms N of Bristol keeps going as the line of storms gradually shifts further north.

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3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

What are the skies like?

(Pls don’t say “purple and red and on fire” 😉)

Steaming AC all around. Sometimes comes above us and sometimes goes to the sides of us. It's looking good here. I saw reports of j

Streaming AC in Norwich as well which would also put me slap bang in the path of storms. 

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A pile of rubbish here......and the NMM has been utterly wrong....the 06z nmm has just come out and it's first two frames (which have already happened) are absolutely way out......for some time now it's been by far the worst of hi-res models, so am surprised NW still use and charge for it?

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I can small towers go up now to my northeast but it's hard to tell in the south east of where I am because there's a massive tree line blocking my view but I'm sure there's small towers behind the tree line because that's where the streaming AC is coming from. 

Edited by Swansonson69

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36 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

27.5 here. The humidity is rising and I tried moving my weather thing in different shady spots of the garden and I'm still getting that temperature. 

Must be an over read by 3-4c? 

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11 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

A pile of rubbish here......and the NMM has been utterly wrong....the 06z nmm has just come out and it's first two frames (which have already happened) are absolutely way out......for some time now it's been by far the worst of hi-res models, so am surprised NW still use and charge for it?

Has been very poor, have to admit though a few of the earlier runs were consistent of the storm running up towards the west country about 7-8am, which is exactly what had happened. 

The worst bit about it, is the inconsistency I feel.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury

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A few bits of AcCas around in the sky from this early morning's leftovers but it's mostly clear skies with the humidity shooting upwards.

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The most accurate forecasts so far have been the BBC by a country mile.

Considering our poorest chance was last night according to some models and it was amazing I just don' know what to expect anymore. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Must be an over read by 3-4c? 

I don't know, it's still going up, it says 29.1 now. I've been moving it to other shady spots and it keeps going up. 

Edited by Swansonson69

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21 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

A pile of rubbish here......and the NMM has been utterly wrong....the 06z nmm has just come out and it's first two frames (which have already happened) are absolutely way out......for some time now it's been by far the worst of hi-res models, so am surprised NW still use and charge for it?

Kind of cover this every year, *all* hires models have a period of spin up for convective weather, so you're better taking the previous run for the early times in a run. We've actually significantly improved the spin-up time on the nmm since last summer (as well as upping the res to 3km, and changing the physics), but even so, the first few frames will always underplay convective cloud/rain.

Beyond spin-up, from what I've seen it's performed as well as anything else, ie  - not spot on all the time, but close enough more often than not, which is about as good as you get most of the time in these situations. I think it's widely accepted that in stormy situations radar watching is the way forward for the details, no model will perfectly provide them.

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Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:

Have to agree it's been very poor, have to admit though a few of the earlier runs were consistent of the storm running up towards the west country about 7-8am, which is exactly what had happened. 

The worst bit about it, is the inconsistency I feel.

These plume setups are notoriously difficult to model and forecast, a fact which was once again proven last night!

Good to see plenty of people getting a storm fix last night anyway, especially anyone who chased big distances!

Unfortunately for me, my choice of vehicle makes it rather expensive to chase anything thats not local 😂

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Towers now beginning to go up looking towards the Macclesfield direction.

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7 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

I don't know, it's still going up, it says 29.1 now. I've been moving it to other shady spots and it keeps going up. 

It has to be like 100% shade. On the north side of the house so Absolutely no energy from the sun of any kind can get to it. Really awkward if you have limited space. You could buy a screen as well but they’re not that cheap. 

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6 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Towers now beginning to go up looking towards the Macclesfield direction.

Yes,can see them from here,two minutes apart.

DSC01907.thumb.JPG.3c61025ebe8976c6db1e437b7a8bc6f8.JPGDSC01908.thumb.JPG.f3a4f0da6a054fd05aa0666b1a49f393.JPG

 

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Severe weather Europe (Facebook page) mentions good conditions for storms in the south and south West today but no mention of it here or anywhere else. Is anything expected down south today ?

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1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

It has to be like 100% shade. On the north side of the house so Absolutely no energy from the sun of any kind can get to it. Really awkward if you have limited space. You could buy a screen as well but they’re not that cheap. 

I know, it's on the north side in a spot that gets no sun through out the entire day. 

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13 minutes ago, Paul said:

Kind of cover this every year, *all* hires models have a period of spin up for convective weather, so you're better taking the previous run for the early times in a run. We've actually significantly improved the spin-up time on the nmm since last summer (as well as upping the res to 3km, and changing the physics), but even so, the first few frames will always underplay convective cloud/rain.

Beyond spin-up, from what I've seen it's performed as well as anything else, ie  - not spot on all the time, but close enough more often than not, which is about as good as you get most of the time in these situations. I think it's widely accepted that in stormy situations radar watching is the way forward for the details, no model will perfectly provide them.

Hey Paul. Is there a storm forecast from Nick F today 

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11 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Towers now beginning to go up looking towards the Macclesfield direction.

I thought I could see something. Altocumulus castellanus just to the south of my location.

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