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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards


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I find an ironic observation that people who don't receive severe weather in their very own back yard are the ones who complain about unwarranted met office warnings...... The met office amber wa

130 photos taken this evening. Have attached the ones I consider decent enough to share. Apologies for some of the scratches and marks on the pictures; my camera body needs a damn good clean.  Th

Hi guys, First post here. Hope you enjoy. Here's the view in Brighton looking south east a moment ago. No processing/filtering on this image either.

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 27 May 2018 - 05:59 UTC Mon 28 May 2018

ISSUED 21:17 UTC Sat 26 May 2018

ISSUED BY: null

Similar to Saturday, plume situations are extremely complex and the detail can (and probably will) change - so it is best to adopt a broad-brush approach and highlight trends rather than specifics, while acknowledge even some areas in a SLGT or MDT may remain lightning-free.

 
It is likely elevated thunderstorms will still be ongoing in various places at the beginning of this forecast period - especially northern England, perhaps East Anglia, and somewhat of a signal for another cluster to move into the Devon/Dorset area, tracking NW over S Wales during Sunday morning. 
 
In the wake of early convection, strong surface heating of the warm, moist low-level airmass (dewpoints 17-19C) should yield up to 1,500 J/kg CAPE. Much of this atmosphere will be capped, and there is always the risk of sporadic areas of elevated convection to develop which may also serve to inhibit surface-based convection. Nonetheless, if sufficient insolation can develop, combined with surface troughing/marked low-level wind convergence then a few scattered thunderstorms may evolve along a NW-SE line from N Wales through the Midlands towards London (and perhaps beyond into SE England, though this less-clear given the potential for elevated thunderstorms to drift in here).
Shear is rather weak, and so convection may struggle to become organised and could collapse after a relatively short time (less than an hour per individual thunderstorm), but given the magnitude of instability available, hail up to 2.0cm is possible along with flash flooding given PWAT 35-40mm.
 
Thunderstorms may continue across parts of the Midlands / East Anglia / SE England through Sunday night
 
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2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Can't see these yet as my large flat window is north facing, my have to wait a while! 

I'm lucky as I have a south facing balcony, albeit the view is partially obscured by some large buildings!

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look at that channel! looking good for the SE as well and later again across the south coast and SW probably missing us but happy to share the storms!

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I can hear distant thunder, the cells I have highlighted have been gaining intensity( precipitation wise) maybe they’re fired into life because can’t imagine I cana hear thunder from the cell in Kent.

5BEA2E46-0AB0-43F8-94C8-104AE7573C43.jpeg

Edited by Justin123
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Forgot I had the Netweather lightning app and it's going off like artillery fire. Looking at the number of strikes approaching South East Wales I think that hunkering down might be the better option. Very humid here and clouds look ominous.

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11 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Yep I can see it from here. 

I've got my cam to continuously record 5 min video's with sound. It's bloody windy though, and it sound like a hurricane on the microphone.

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Frequent lightning coming fron the southeast. A quick look at the radar shows a small cell over orpington heading this way with a larger on behind. As I'm typing this first distant rumbles heard.

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32 minutes ago, John Hodgson said:

The interesting thing is blitzortung is showing lightning in the south east even though the reflectivity on the radar looks like hardly anything 

It’s an immense cell, John! Was flashing every 1-2 seconds. Moving off now but I’m hoping the line behind it will come closer. Lots of awesome looking AcCas lit up in the moonlight. 

1 downside - got a whopping bite on my foot!!!

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