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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards


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27 minutes ago, Another Kent clipper said:

I think I need to get a little further south than Cheshire...

 

IMG_20180526_191210.jpg

Hahaha yes, same problem here. S Cheshire shown to be right on the N extent tomorrow.

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2 minutes ago, Thunderstruck said:

Couple of towers appearing to the south here, though whether we actually will end up with anything or not tonight is hard to say. Here’s hoping...

Nothing visible in Bas yet

 

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15 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

a genuine word of note for those watching the multicell cluster/MCS over northern France....don't get sucked into it's current track........Look at the projected 500hpa flow as that's the wind flow that will steer this system.....it will veer NW on a few hours time and won;t necessarily run up eastern England as has been suggested in earlier posts

I’m not sure AJ - I’m sat here outside with fingers crossed that it doesn’t slam into Benelux. 

How many times have we sat scratching our heads at how MCS type systems not only ignore steering winds but almost run into them 

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Well round one is a fail here, initiated overhead and the first trough developed just inland producing sferics now inland in Dorset!

Not happy with the situation in France at the moment as well.

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The EWN WRF models the MCS, albeit an hour or two behind. It shows it moving Northwest and going in to Devon and Cornwall. Answers on a postcode as to whether it will maintain electrical activity by then.

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39 minutes ago, Another Kent clipper said:

I think I need to get a little further south than Cheshire...

 

IMG_20180526_191210.jpg

Need to get out of the area full stop, when it comes to thunder prospects ?️? Manchester Airport latest TAF still has storm possibilities.

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4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The EWN WRF models the MCS, albeit an hour or two behind. It shows it moving Northwest and going in to Devon and Cornwall. Answers on a postcode as to whether it will maintain electrical activity by then.

Agreed ecm doing a decent job! Still a lovely evening and the 7’s by Hurn Airport have possibly dodged a bullet!

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Noooooo! Even the eastern batch of the MCS is beginning to succumb to the NW veering winds. Keep on coming you beauty - ignore those Devonian loving winds ?

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1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Various towering cells stretching right across my horizon! Incredible to see might have to take a drive towards Chelwood.

Parts of the W country may get something from the rash of showers developing to our SE. Keeping an eye on the ones around Salisbury at the moment.

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22 minutes ago, Wet'n'Dry said:

Nothing visible in Bas yet

 

I was on a train near Upminster at that point, should probably have said that. Back home in Benfleet now and there’s a bit of cirrus and ac cas but nothing more.

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19 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Well round one is a fail here, initiated overhead and the first trough developed just inland producing sferics now inland in Dorset!

Not happy with the situation in France at the moment as well.

It’s all as bad as it can get at the moment for me. Storms too fast initiating overhead and going in the wrong direction

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