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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

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There's a massive cluster of thunderstorms across northern france..should be a fun night for storm enthusiasts in the south.👍🌩️⛈️

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6 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

I don't know if it's just me, but the MCS looks like in the process of splitting indicated by lack of lightning in the middle of the storm track.

As a result, I expect the west side to die off, and for the east side to continue spitting out sferics and to head towards the far SE.

Looks like there is a new cell  exploding into life to the South West of it as well. Looking at lightning maps it looks like the MCS is firing off sferics in three different areas on the NE,NW and SE flanks of the system which makes me wonder whether it is splitting into three different systems maybe?

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My reading of the MCS is that it’s splitting - the easterly batch swinging increasingly NE while the westerly swinging NW. I’m concerned we might be stuck in a gap! 

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Just now, Harry said:

My reading of the MCS is that it’s splitting - the easterly batch swinging increasingly NE while the westerly swinging NW. I’m concerned we might be stuck in a gap! 

I think we are waiting for later on when stuff gets going a bi closer to home, the south west getting the storms first which is exactly what is happening  

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4 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

Looks like there is a new cell  exploding into life to the South West of it as well. Looking at lightning maps it looks like the MCS is firing off sferics in three different areas on the NE,NW and SE flanks of the system which makes me wonder whether it is splitting into three different systems maybe?

If it's right moving then I would guess Belgium/ Netherlands etc will cop it rather than the S and EA.

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4 minutes ago, James86 said:

Thunder just heard in Southampton.

Must be some rapid developments as nothing reminiscent of a thunderstorm over Southampton bar a few showers, exciting time.

Everyone watch the next two radar updates, I expect the channel to explode hehe...

Edited by Ben Sainsbury

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1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Must be some rapid developments as nothing reminiscent of a thunderstorm over Southampton by a few showers, exciting times! 

Came from this. Not really the most threatening of skies!

1527358876610983218408.jpg

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2 minutes ago, James86 said:

Came from this. Not really the most threatening of skies!

1527358876610983218408.jpg

Yup distant rumbles here and now huge drops of rain.

Prett heavy too, out of nowhere! and with the sun still shining to the west.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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5 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I think we are waiting for later on when stuff gets going a bi closer to home, the south west getting the storms first which is exactly what is happening  

Wouldn’t be so sure @Surrey my reading is that IF it keeps on it’s current track it’ll arrive within about 3-4 hours

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Some small towering altocumulus castellanus here, positive to see ahead of main activity.

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7 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

If it's right moving then I would guess Belgium/ Netherlands etc will cop it rather than the S and EA.

Luckily I think we should be ok. It should start hopefully heading more North as the upper winds are becoming more SE’ly the further north it is getting. Usually the upper winds head East of North, which is why we often miss out, and the usual areas (Belgium/Netherlands) get slammed. 

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OK. So watching radar and waiting and hoping that big splodge in France keeps moving in the right direction. In the meantime, does anyone know of any good viewing spots in N Hampshire/Surrey borders? Often use Odiham airbase but just wondered if there is anywhere with a little more height. 

 

 

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Dunno about the lightning strike near Bristol, barely a cloud in the sky.

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Just popped round to the shop for five minutes and got drenched by a sudden downpour that came out of nowhere! Didn't last long but the air now has that lovely smell of warm rain!

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Gorgeous line of storms south of Exeter. Looks beautiful on the radar!

Can see the little cell over Southampton now on radar. They're popping up quick :D

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1 hour ago, R Alto said:

The messy stratus and Cumulus feeding in from the East are getting quite big now with dark bases, still not convinced that they will turn into the area of storms forcast, wait and see. Fairly dramatic though.

Ours is coming in from the south and is more like AC CAS than anything else.

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a genuine word of note for those watching the multicell cluster/MCS over northern France....don't get sucked into it's current track........Look at the projected 500hpa flow as that's the wind flow that will steer this system.....it will veer NW on a few hours time and won;t necessarily run up eastern England as has been suggested in earlier posts

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19 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

Looks like there is a new cell  exploding into life to the South West of it as well. Looking at lightning maps it looks like the MCS is firing off sferics in three different areas on the NE,NW and SE flanks of the system which makes me wonder whether it is splitting into three different systems maybe?

Seems as though it will remain as two separate systems to me. Although having said that a new cell seems to have fired up to the west of them.

Screenshot_20180526-193212.jpg

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6 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Dunno about the lightning strike near Bristol, barely a cloud in the sky.

Really?! Sunny here in Stoke Gifford, North Bristol; albeit a bit hazy.

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there are some thundery showers by Exeter which should reach us by 20:30 ish and move off around 9 :30- 10pm

 

anyone down Exeter way can confirm strikes please?

Edited by viking_smb

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Nice looking cell just to the south in  Dorset. 

Sweet and cute. Bless it. 

A bit of thunder from it. 

524EF068-2026-4203-92EA-70D0E801554A.jpeg

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