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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

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3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

There will be people calling bust at 7:30pm, about 15 mins before the first strikes appear just south of the Solent - mark my words... 😉

Always happens.

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Just hit 22°C here, with a dew point of 16.9°C

Time to relax and wait until later. :)

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Sunshine and sweaty bettys here.

Edited by Biggin
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22 minutes ago, Christchurch storm nut said:

Tell me about it, I've been very fortunate the last few years! It almost feels like deja vu, it definitely feels like we have turned a corner in the last 5 years! Before then I had to watch storms move up from France, then make a sharp right hand turn towards Holland! This might sound like I'm exaggerating, but honestly that's what happened time and time again.

I'm gonna have to forget watching the champions league final and get out with the camera 😁

 

Gimme a good storm over watching the Scousers win something any day! 😁

But yes agree, the last couple of years have been so much better for storms than the decade or so before it, I actually have reasonable confidence of seeing something now in these set ups.

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Liverpool John Lennon TAF going for the possibility of heavy rain showers and heavy thunderstorm rain from 04:00 onwards tomorrow morning. A good sign for later. 

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18 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

It does feel a bit humid in the east Midlands. The sun is somewhat shining and the cloud thinning away. What's the chance of storms on the east Midlands?

Probably not that high in northern parts of the East Midlands for today. A chance tomorrow as the plume moves northwards but the best chance on current modelling is going to be across the south of the UK and then including the southern half of the Midlands and up into the NW for tomorrow. Plume thunderstorm distribution is very difficult to predict though, it always comes down to radar watching in the end.

Edited by Supacell
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24C here and humid. My weather app has suddenly started thinking 50% risk of thunder both at home and further east on the coast tonight. 

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Sun trying to poke through here, got a fair wind too.

 

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Oddly NW puts my highest storm risk in Wednesday when the figures don't seem to suggest that. At 0% for today, 35% tomorrow and 40% Monday. 

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It's just under 22°c here. Dew point last I checked about 5 minutes ago was 15.6°c. Feeling humid. The sun is shining. 

I don't know what that means for storms forming. 

I have a feeling that storms are going to form when no one expects them to. 

Edited by Swansonson69

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20 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Liverpool John Lennon TAF going for the possibility of heavy rain showers and heavy thunderstorm rain from 04:00 onwards tomorrow morning. A good sign for later. 

There will be a lot of moisture at Liverpool John Lennon from 4am when the first planefuls of tearful Scousers start to land!

I will be in South Oxfordshire tonight so inside the MDT zone. Could be interesting.. ...

Edited by Vestan
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Still waiting for the sun here in Somerset. A nice sunny day, small chance of a homegrown and a load of Thatchers is a perfect way to spend the day before relaxing in front of a massive storm this evening/tonight..... Or too drunk and sleep through it.

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Where’s the shoreham airport taf? Can’t find it!

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Anyone know why these forecasts differ so much, top is free NW forecast bottom is NW extra, which model does the free forecast get its info from?

free.png

gfs.png

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34 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Liverpool John Lennon TAF going for the possibility of heavy rain showers and heavy thunderstorm rain from 04:00 onwards tomorrow morning. A good sign for later. 

Same for Manchester Airport but going off the form of this decade, I'm not expecting anything. 

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Sun broken through here now, starting to warm up a bit. Still quite a breeze from the E/NE so not feeling too sweaty yet. 

Looking forward to hopefully seeing the first storms break out over the channel this evening. Think I may be too far north and east of the risk zone but you never know with these kind of conditions. 

 

Good luck all

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Yeah sorry it looks there's a lot of missing taf info from the site I can't see it anywhere else either. Metcheck gives a bit of extra info with the decoded info, but still not brilliant, doesn't show the info we need 

https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/latest_world_metar_taf_weather_decoded.asp?ICAO=EGKA&Stn=Shoreham(EGKA)

Edited by The East has Ceased

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Good luck everyone in the south. Looks quite thundery later on.

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good luck to all down south enjoy the storms for me up here looking poor for storms right now 

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