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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

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1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

These two French cells look curious... is that rotation?919255C0-C64B-46A1-8C2A-CD440EB451B2.thumb.jpeg.0cb298546b14c9632807c38b96fc340b.jpeg

I've just run the loop....and no, just 2 bog standard thunderstorms IMHO, one of which (the eastern one) is decaying if not already dead

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When you look at a lightning map and watch storms in the North Sea off Denmark and wonder just what the heck that wretched body of water has against the UK.....

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2 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

I've just run the loop....and no, just 2 bog standard thunderstorms IMHO, one of which (the eastern one) is decaying if not already dead

Even a bog standard thunderstorm sounds exciting to me these days, lol

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2 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

The northern part, still very active. 

I think that’s the front of it - weird it was heading west earlier and now it’s heading way more north 🤔

Edit: think it’s decaying though

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc

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1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I think that’s the front of it - weird it was heading west earlier and now it’s heading way more north 🤔

True, the fact it's still very active is a good sign. 

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Just now, Swansonson69 said:

True, the fact it's still very active is a good sign. 

I suspect a fair bit of electrical activity is elevated with little being shown on RTL. Still not confident it will reach that far North but it's travelled further than I thought

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1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

 Like how bold you are with your convictions but if this week has proven anything it’s that these weather systems won’t behave like you expect

I think the rain will become more showery with the odd heavier pulse more likely the further south you are

Electrical activity will wane but that’s not to say a rogue strike won’t catch you out - even in the Midlands - but the further north you are the more showery the rain spells will be

This trough is already weakening and will continue so throughout the night - tomorrow looks quieter on the convective front at the moment, but Thursday could really be a big day for both the midlands and the south with some juice and triggers to really get those party lights going good and proper 💥 

Edit: midnight onwards tonight could well throw up a few surprises for the extreme south and east so don’t give up hope if nothing happens before then...

I said that this what I predict but I didn't say it definitely will I'm not going by weather forecasts just by my own information. 

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1 minute ago, TJS1998Tom said:

I suspect a fair bit of electrical activity is elevated with little being shown on RTL. Still not confident it will reach that far North but it's travelled further than I thought

Non the less it's still going strong. 

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I’ve got the old clicks on blitzortung and zoomed in on our area.

Love this bit - waiting for the click then the rumble 10-15 seconds later...

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc

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Might as well go to bed, need to be up early to enjoy the North Sea fog rolling in 🙄

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Looks like we’re getting a few false returns on Blitzortung again. Showing a strike near Rayleigh where there’s no precipitation (yet) and I definitely would have heard it if it were real. 

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Expecting storms from midnight onwards - simply because it's my birthday then and I was born in a thunderstorm. It's a running joke in my family that it's always thunder and lightning on my birthday! (Which it frequently is!)

Edited by amybonnie98

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Just now, Thunderstruck said:

Looks like we’re getting a few false returns on Blitzortung again. Showing a strike near Rayleigh where there’s no precipitation (yet) and I definitely would have heard it if it were real. 

What causes false returns?

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1 minute ago, Swansonson69 said:

What causes false returns?

I’m afraid I can’t answer that. Sorry. 

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2 minutes ago, amybonnie98 said:

Expecting storms from midnight onwards - simply because it's my birthday then and I was born in a thunderstorm. It's a running joke in my family that it's always thunder and lightning on my birthday! (Which it frequently is!)

Turning 20? 

Happy birthday. 😊

Edited by Swansonson69

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1 minute ago, jordan smith said:

Their closely following the direction I implicated so a good sign.

Yup. 

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seems to be local intense areas of precipitation firing up in an elevated nature. Come the early hours, I wouldn’t rule out flashes here and there across the whole of east anglia and the southeast. It’s hard to give an accurate description of exactly where and when it will do though. Thundery rain I think will sum it up! 

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7 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

What causes false returns?

Some sort of glitch in the triangulation system.

I think glitch might be the wrong term though, if you look at the way the systems detect lightning using radio waves there are plenty of sources of interference that can mess with the results a little. This info gets calculated to work out a spot (triangulation & maths yo) but if the raw data is off or it detects RF signals that aren’t caused by actual lighting it’ll give you a false return.

They don’t happen a lot but if there’s a lot of activity it tends to occur more regularly.

Lightningmaps and netweather I think are better at picking up false returns and removing them but I don’t know how they make this work

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc

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Heading a bit too much in a South Westerly direction for my liking. I fear the main band will miss the Midlands. Would prefer if it was East to West. 

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