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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 19th May 2018 onwards

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Thursday evening is starting to look epic. Tomorrow evening not bad either. Notice shear is about 15 kts on Thursday evening maximum. What sort of values are we looking for to be considered good enough for sustaining updrafts?  

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2 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

I think the arrows are accurate the storms will move in a west northwest direction and become elongated through east anglia central England too then a broad area of thundery rain for Western England after midday.

Sounds about right to me! 👍

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

And I think they'll be elevated storms, storms whose intensity is almost unaffected by a sea-crossing...It's not unknown for such thunderstorms to come out of France, move right up the North Sea and still be electrified on reaching the Shetland Islands...A wee hop across the Southern NS should be a problem oughtn't cause too much problem...I HOPE!⛈️

Same, I think I'm going to stay up all night and watch it. 

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5 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

I think the arrows are accurate the storms will move in a west northwest direction and become elongated through east anglia central England too then a broad area of thundery rain for Western England after midday.

I mean like slight nudge to the north because of what happened today. It went north west and then died going west later on. 

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I'm actually quite surprised by how "plain" the weather has been today here, given how much activity there's been just to the south! Hopefully there's a good chance for Bucks tonight. Would love another crack at overnight lightning shots. 

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I think this is the sort of area the rain will lie at around 6 am stretching through east anglia to South West England I think it will mostly miss the far south east the northern extent probably central parts of the Midlands around the time I stated.

orca-image-1527619464563.jpg_1527619464760.jpeg

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4 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

I mean like slight nudge to the north because of what happened today. It went north west and then died going west later on. 

That won't be the case tomorrow the area of thundery rain will not weaken as it pushes into Western England.

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8 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

Same, I think I'm going to stay up all night and watch it. 

You definitely should.

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1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

Rain running along Southern coasts in the early hours, but questionable electrical activity and rain intensity.

Same as last night really!

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31 minutes ago, LimoPreacherman said:

Thoughts on the ringed cell?

Screenshot_20180529-193524__01.jpg

If the storms are being steered by the 850hpa winds, which I believe they are as 925hpa and 950hpa don’t correlate with the storm motion this morning and afternoon in the uk. Then that cell will likely die before it reaches the channel or be taken westwards with other storms as it crosses channel. This also suggests why the storms in Holland have a NW motion as the steering wends are taking them this way until they reach different steering winds in the North Sea ,veering to an E’ly track motion. For example the storm that is currently in the North Sea is taking a different track to the ones that have not left Holland 🇳🇱 yet. I may be wrong, but they are likely to follow the E-W track as they did this morning.

4155A195-663A-4868-AFE4-8C1F992729E3.jpeg

Edited by Justin123

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No the rain coming in tonight into tomorrow is on a different track should be heavy thundery rain pushing into southeast England and east Anglia probably around 10 or 11pm this evening before intensifying as it pushes further west northwestwards then it will sit through the central portion of the country from East anglia to Southwest England during the early hours the Kent area should turn drier by daylight until thundery showers later.

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5 minutes ago, Justin123 said:

If the storms are being steered by the 850hpa winds, which I believe they are as 925hpa and 950hpa don’t correlate with the storm motion this morning and afternoon in the uk. Then that cell will likely die before it reaches the channel or be taken westwards with other storms as it crosses channel. This also suggests why the storms in Holland have a NW motion as the steering wends are likes this until veering to an E’ly motion. For example the storm that is currently in the North Sea is taking a different track to the ones that have not left Holland 🇳🇱 yet. I may be wrong, but they are likely to follow the E-W track as they did this morning.

4155A195-663A-4868-AFE4-8C1F992729E3.jpeg

Yup, that's what I'm seeing. I agree with you. 

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Sorry. Another diagram just to show why the storms are differing in direction, they will change course, towards the UK, hence the extended met warning. The reason the met has extended the warning is due to the potency of these storms, even though most will weaken or die, some may survive the crossing and still be electrified. Anyway I thought this would help people who are unclear on the track  the “potential” storms will take. If you compare the steering winds with the recorded lightning strikes you will se what I’m getting at. Have attached to unedited copies to compare.

8072701F-D44C-4C61-BDE3-60CA5FED6235.jpeg

EEEEE62F-F69F-4328-9856-3150B290D464.jpeg

7042582B-9283-42F6-A2FF-EA825538D6EA.png

00BF14D2-50DF-421C-B54C-BFD6E6B0321B.png

0822BB6C-67AC-43C7-A561-32374DD497E8.png

Edited by Justin123

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Just taking stock of what I’ve seen over the past week or so. Since last Monday, I’ve seen thunderstorms on 5 days.

Last Monday, a discreet and nippy little cell fired off over SE London. Few close CGs kept me stuck on a sweltering train for 30 mins longer than I should.

Saturday night was simply the most frequent lightning I’ve ever seen the UK and competed well against supercells I witnessed in the US. 2-3 hours of heaven.

Sunday night was just an awe-inspiring display from 80+ miles away. I stood watching the Aylesbury cell from the Kent coast, just continual orange IC bolts within a perfectly formed, huge Cb framed in front of the setting sun.

Yesterday I sat and watched the Thames/London cell explode from my back garden. Gorgeous and rapid Cb development, with frequent IC lightning and lots of thunder booming/crackling in clear air.

Today almost feels like it shouldn’t have happened. Not thundery feeling in the slightest, but 3-4 hours of thunder, lightning and at times torrential rain. Again largely IC but a few CGs and a small number of positive boomers. 

Into tonight and the next few days and potential remains for further storms.

May 2018 will go down in the annals for sure. And it’s not even Summer!!!

I have my fingers crossed for other folk. Models keep instability across EA/SE but Thursday in particular looks awesome for a much broader swathe of England.

 

74BFBFF5-F950-4ECE-A740-17371D06F661.jpeg

E4DAB96F-51B8-4250-8969-89C12F597A39.png

EC7F68BE-0D69-4E18-B704-44C0B60D52E0.jpeg

C460A44E-5924-4435-9516-C70581C62092.jpeg

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 I thought elevated storms were steered by the 500 HPA winds; or at least above 700 HPA? 

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@Harry The fact that parts of the country have witnessed all these storms in May makes me wonder what June and July could have in store for us. Interesting times ahead me thinks

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It’s odd to think that we could see more storms tonight. After this morning’s show it doesn’t feel stormy in the slightest. Still, certainly not going to turn anything down and will be watching the radar closely as we move towards dusk. 

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1 minute ago, TJS1998Tom said:

@Harry The fact that parts of the country have witnessed all these storms in May makes me wonder what June and July could have in store for us. Interesting times ahead me thinks

It looks to me like we're in for one heck of a summer!

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10 minutes ago, Harry said:

Just taking stock of what I’ve seen over the past week or so. Since last Monday, I’ve seen thunderstorms on 5 days.

Last Monday, a discreet and nippy little cell fired off over SE London. Few close CGs kept me stuck on a sweltering train for 30 mins longer than I should.

Saturday night was simply the most frequent lightning I’ve ever seen the UK and competed well against supercells I witnessed in the US. 2-3 hours of heaven.

Sunday night was just an awe-inspiring display from 80+ miles away. I stood watching the Aylesbury cell from the Kent coast, just continual orange IC bolts within a perfectly formed, huge Cb framed in front of the setting sun.

Yesterday I sat and watched the Thames/London cell explode from my back garden. Gorgeous and rapid Cb development, with frequent IC lightning and lots of thunder booming/crackling in clear air.

Today almost feels like it shouldn’t have happened. Not thundery feeling in the slightest, but 3-4 hours of thunder, lightning and at times torrential rain. Again largely IC but a few CGs and a small number of positive boomers. 

Into tonight and the next few days and potential remains for further storms.

May 2018 will go down in the annals for sure. And it’s not even Summer!!!

I have my fingers crossed for other folk. Models keep instability across EA/SE but Thursday in particular looks awesome for a much broader swathe of England.

 

497BFC05-2580-402B-84C3-6BFF022B068A.MOV

74BFBFF5-F950-4ECE-A740-17371D06F661.jpeg

E4DAB96F-51B8-4250-8969-89C12F597A39.png

EC7F68BE-0D69-4E18-B704-44C0B60D52E0.jpeg

C460A44E-5924-4435-9516-C70581C62092.jpeg

Quite agree @Harry very much reminds you of the amazing stormy summers of the 90s doesn't it?

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4 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

@Harry The fact that parts of the country have witnessed all these storms in May makes me wonder what June and July could have in store for us. Interesting times ahead me thinks

Agreed @TJS1998Tom. It’s not unusual for May to deliver storms particularly on the odd plume set up. But given every storm I’ve witnessed in the past few days been home grown and among the most electrically active ever, that’s the most unreal thing (and day after day).

Here is hoping, let’s see what the next few hours bring.

Agreed @Lauren the 90s were amazing. But I struggle to think of anything that compares with the past few years (days even). The one thing the 90s had for me was the ground rattling thunder - these days thunder seems more tame. That could just be me getting older haha

Edited by Harry

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1 minute ago, Harry said:

Agreed @TJS1998Tom. It’s not unusual for May to deliver storms particularly on the odd plume set up. But given every storm I’ve witnessed in the past few days been home grown and among the most electrically active ever, that’s the most unreal thing (and day after day).

Here isn’t hoping, let’s see what the next few hours bring 

Aye, it would be nice to have storms here. But so long as I get even just one night storm this Summer whether it's in June or July that'll do me

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11 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 I thought elevated storms were steered by the 500 HPA winds; or at least above 700 HPA? 

yes they generally are....500hpa steering motion for elevated, 850/700hpa surface based

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