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Summer Sun

Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

Paul

Please ensure you stick to the forum guidelines when using this thread, particularly when it comes to discussing weather preferences:

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Weather Guilt-Tripping - Please don't suggest people are selfish for enjoying or even looking forward to a certain weather type. Everyone has different weather preferences, but since none of us can control the weather, no-one should be made to feel guilty or foolish for liking it.

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June as started on a decent note for most.  2 out of 3 days have been good here.. I know there's a feeling. June will turn out to be a poor summer month. But the met office and bbc have gone for settled and warmer last 10 days of June. Ie being the final  3rd of the month. if we can  get  8/9 more days of summer like weather. running  up to the latter part of June. I think most would settle for that. Considering the  excellent May we have had.

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It’s been a poor 2nd and 3rd here and tomorrow looks poor but hopefully we’ll get a few nice days after that. 

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On 1 June 2018 at 07:16, Philipsfd said:

Would I be right in thinking this Spring has been similar to 2001 and 2008? Both of them had a chilly and damp April but a warm and dry May and didn't 2001 have a cold March? 

 

Would you be happy if this summer is similar to summer 2001? I think June '01 was fairly warm and dry if I remember rightly and the indications are for similar weather now.

Correct, although May 2001 was much drier than 2008. In fact 2008 was as wet as 2006 and 2007 here because of thundery outbreaks in the first and final weeks.

A summer like 2001 wouldn't be too bad if we could take out the two week unsettled spell in July. June was great here, July was good in the first and final weeks and August was changeable with good days mixed with wetter days.

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2001 was nice, but I recall August being rather dull and unsettled. I think the early 2000s were quite poor for summers, in terms of cloudiness and lack of sunshine. Obviously 2003, 2005 And 2006 were improvements. 

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After an eventful late Winter & glorious second half of Spring, it looks like we could be slipping into a somewhat benign start to summer.

Murky and average temps seem to be the order of the day in my location for now. Let's hope our trend of unseasonal start/extreme end to our seasons this year is continued. I love to see the heat build in the height of summer, so would gladly trade June for a hot and thundery July/August.

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11 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

2001 was nice, but I recall August being rather dull and unsettled. I think the early 2000s were quite poor for summers, in terms of cloudiness and lack of sunshine. Obviously 2003, 2005 And 2006 were improvements. 

2002 was the only very dull summer for that period. 2004 was a bit cloudy but mostly average to above average for England. 2001 was okay too except for Scotland which was very dull.

August 2001 had average sunshine levels, with above-average temps and rainfall.

Edited by cheese

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Anyway, crap day here - max of 16C and cloudy skies. Didn't feel warm whatsoever.

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Well I’m enjoying the weather so far. This is the best late Spring/early summer I can recall for some years. Long may it continue.😎

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Anyone know of a doctor that's willing to put me into an induced coma for the next 12-15 weeks?

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Yet another big thunderstorm here this afternoon/evening with flash flooding. The temperature plummeted from 28C to 17C. I've also managed to cool my room down from 28C to 22C by opening the doors and windows during the storm.

That's at least the fifth humdinger so far this year, and it's only early June. I can't remember the last sunny day (and there have been too many to count) without a thunderstorm risk. Plenty of posters on a Slovak weather board are getting fed up now. One person is actually hoping for "western oceanic" rain for a change.

Meanwhile east of here in Nitra...

 

Edited by AderynCoch

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3 hours ago, AderynCoch said:

Yet another big thunderstorm here this afternoon/evening with flash flooding. The temperature plummeted from 28C to 17C. I've also managed to cool my room down from 28C to 22C by opening the doors and windows during the storm.

That's at least the fifth humdinger so far this year, and it's only early June. I can't remember the last sunny day (and there have been too many to count) without a thunderstorm risk. Plenty of posters on a Slovak weather board are getting fed up now. One person is actually hoping for "western oceanic" rain for a change.

Meanwhile east of here in Nitra...

 

They need to shovel all that ice up, with some raspberry flavoring that would make a nice slush puppy 😁

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On 06/06/2018 at 13:48, mushymanrob said:

sick to death of this bloody north sea cloud....


but at least its dry...

Been a very sunny first week to June on this side of the Pennines

 

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15 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Been a very sunny first week to June on this side of the Pennines

 

Yes,been cloudy today but the rest of the week has either been mostly sunny or cloudy mornings with sunny afternoons,dry ,what more could you ask for? This last 6 weeks have given more summer weather than many summers in total since 2007 and its only the second week in June!

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15 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Been a very sunny first week to June on this side of the Pennines

 

about time it changed, best setup for my location, HP to SE, LP to NW, but with jet far enough north for the wet and windy stuff to be in NW Scotland where it belongs

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On ‎08‎/‎06‎/‎2018 at 03:50, Weather-history said:

Been a very sunny first week to June on this side of the Pennines

It has been the total opposite here. In May we had 280hrs of sunshine, but the first 8 days of June have only managed 25hrs!

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Still a decent start to June in the London and southeast area. Long may it continue. 

I think August will end up being the poor month now, and maybe another late warm spell in early September will follow, before the cools off towards winter.

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An excellent June so far here, barely a drop of rain, just having some showery bursts today, lots of sunshine and warm temperatures. 

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7 hours ago, damianslaw said:

An excellent June so far here, barely a drop of rain, just having some showery bursts today, lots of sunshine and warm temperatures. 

summer should be over for those locations soon though, westerlies should dominate rest of June, Jul and Aug

Summer should be starting for S and E UK

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30 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

summer should be over for those locations soon though, westerlies should dominate rest of June, Jul and Aug

Summer should be starting for S and E UK

Standard, northwestern areas peak early. The height of summer is yet to come for the rest of us.

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Despite my own preference i think that perhaps we may be looking at a warm July. Tropical westerlies in the pacific and waning trades should as we enter July produce a more standard pattern for hot weather. 

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

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They were predicting afternoon  thunderstorms for my area.. Not likely now. You have never seen  such beautiful clear blue skies :D

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AO value for May came in at +1.1 which is among the highest since 1950. Looking at other years with +1 May values we get..

2009

2003

1992

1966

1964

1956

Unfortunately for you summer lovers those summers on the whole (looking at the reanalysis chart) see the settled June followed by a second half horror show. 

Breaking it down a bit..

2009 had a relatively average summer with June and August a little warmer and drier than normal while July was cooler and wetter than normal. 

2003 was of course among the hottest summers and August breaching the 18C mark (5th hottest).

1992 is the classic example of front loaded with a warm June followed by poor July and August. June is +1.2C vs the 1981-2010 mean, August is -1.1C vs the 1981-2010 mean. 

1966 is an extreme front load with June being the warmest month of the summer, departures of +0.9, -1.7, -1.7.

1964 was a little cooler than average from start to finish, a cooler version of 2009 in effect.

1956 was a very cool summer with an August that was -2.9C vs the 1981-2010 average

..

It would seem from the above then that you guys are rolling a dice (1 in 6) albeit we can probably discount the later two since we are likely to start the summer with a CET somewhere in the 15C's.

..

Looking purely at a statistical base..

June: Equal chances of below average, close to average, above average. CET range of 13.1C to 16.1C.

July: 83% chance of a value within 1C of average, 1966 discounted. CET range of 15.8C to 17.6C. 

August: 50% chance of a value more than 1C below average (~33% of a value within 1C of average), 2003 discounted. CET range of 13.5C to 15.3C.

..

If the pattern follows then finishes near the high end of those ranges give us a summer not much different to 2010.

If we low ball after June and follow the front loaded pattern then something like 15.5, 16, 15 is possible and would dissapoint. 

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