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phil nw.

Model output discussion 14/04/18

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1 hour ago, matty007 said:

Lovely to finally have some warmth, I love warm/hot weather, the hotter the better. 

But I cannot help feeling disappointed at how much this spell has been degraded gradually. We have gone from pretty much a predicted 7 days of wall to wall sunshine and temps above/well above 20c, to 3 days of sun with one day of hot weather and then constant rain and cool temperatures after that.

making the most of this spell, but it could have been so much more

Sounds much like a comment during the winter

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GFS has underestimated today's high by 3c so far with 25c in Gravesend and St James Park, London

6-778.thumb.GIF.5cf02f4218b0d16e30f114a166e52159.GIF9-778.thumb.GIF.f8860dc51378e7bbd310cc1b67450805.GIF

Tomorrow it is going for a high of 25c given its tendency to underestimate I wouldn't be surprised to see 28c recorded maybe 29c at a push

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21 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS has underestimated today's high by 3c so far with 25c in Gravesend and St James Park, London

6-778.thumb.GIF.5cf02f4218b0d16e30f114a166e52159.GIF9-778.thumb.GIF.f8860dc51378e7bbd310cc1b67450805.GIF

Tomorrow it is going for a high of 25c given its tendency to underestimate I wouldn't be surprised to see 28c recorded maybe 29c at a push

To go a little further, it looks like the warm air will persist from the Midlands south until the end of the weekend.

tempresult_ihi9.gif

To put this in perspective, given we have reached 25C today, then it is very possible that some locations in the south could hit 25C for five consecutive days which for April is pretty exceptional. Cooler air will affect northern parts Friday and Saturday though still a lot of decent weather on offer.

Normal service resumes next week

EDM1-144.GIF?18-12   EDM1-192.GIF?18-12   EDM1-240.GIF?18-12

Temperatures probably dropping to near normal with some rain or showers at times but nothing overly drastic. Just a typical westerly pattern.

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1 hour ago, matty007 said:

Lovely to finally have some warmth, I love warm/hot weather, the hotter the better. 

But I cannot help feeling disappointed at how much this spell has been degraded gradually. We have gone from pretty much a predicted 7 days of wall to wall sunshine and temps above/well above 20c, to 3 days of sun with one day of hot weather and then constant rain and cool temperatures after that.

making the most of this spell, but it could have been so much more

Seeing as tomorrow is likely to be up there with one of the warmest April days on record, you can't say it's been disappointing!

I'd say a 5/6 spell of temperatures 5-13c above normal in April is pretty exceptional really.

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Afternoon all :)

I'm not a fan of summer in all honesty but I don't begrudge people a little bit of warmth now and then and especially after such a long winter and slow spring. The turn round has been remarkable and it looks as though tomorrow will be the height of the warm snap.

Looking further ahead, clear signs of a return to something more normal next week.

GEM has a very contrasting view to next Wednesday from today:

gem-0-174.png?00

ECM at a similar place:

ECM1-168.GIF?18-12

GFS 06Z OP as well:

gfs-0-168.png?6

Further into FI 06Z OP pulls out something nice for early May:

gfs-0-336.png?6

Once the cool NW'ly goes by next week things get much more uncertain. Perhaps a hint of LP close to or just to the south of the British Isles but far too early to be clear.

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2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Seeing as tomorrow is likely to be up there with one of the warmest April days on record, you can't say it's been disappointing!

I'd say a 5/6 spell of temperatures 5-13c above normal in April is pretty exceptional really.

The temperatures certainly are not not disappointing. 28c in April is exceptional. 

I’m more referring to the longevity. In my mind, we’ve only really had 2/3 warm days. Yesterday was cloudy and lacklustre, not what I’d call warm. Today is certainly the first proper warm day, then exceptional tomorrow and very good on Friday. After that, it takes a massive nosedive back to constant rain etc. Not what I’d call impressive. 

Its the longevity I’m griping at. As much as I love 25c+, I’d happily take 1-2 weeks of 20-22c over 2 days of 25c+ and then back to rubbish. 

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2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS has underestimated today's high by 3c so far with 25c in Gravesend and St James Park, London

6-778.thumb.GIF.5cf02f4218b0d16e30f114a166e52159.GIF9-778.thumb.GIF.f8860dc51378e7bbd310cc1b67450805.GIF

Tomorrow it is going for a high of 25c given its tendency to underestimate I wouldn't be surprised to see 28c recorded maybe 29c at a push

If you see my post in the short thread from yesterday, you'll see most models were going for maxes of 20, 21 or 22 today. Arome was closest (the only one close really). So using the same logic, then yes, 28C definitely possible tomorrow.

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6 hours ago, mb018538 said:

24_thickuk.thumb.png.43be1afee04242a6556

This has crept up on me a bit for tomorrow....have these 850s been revised up a little from the preceding days? I had it in my head they would be around 10c....its now showing 13/14c in the SE corner? Could we perhaps break 80f?? :)

That’s right most of time the models have shown 12C isotherm just glancing parts of East Anglia so quite notable improvement in distribution of very warm air. Lightwork I’d say 25.3C reached today.

 Unsure why certain folk were so pessimistic with temperature predictions very warm air, light winds from Southern Europe.. unbroken sunshine. It is going to get very warm, common sense really. An exceptionally warm week for mid April in S/E now looking very warm on London marathon day.

Edited by Daniel*

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I live in Gravesend and have been to Heathrow and central London today as a driver I can confirm it felt a lot warmer than the low 20s this afternoon. And tomorrow's meant to be a fair bit hotter still! Although the SE admittedly has naff winters in general I must admit we do ok in summer being pretty sheltered from the Atlantic influences that you northerners know all about. Let's hope we get some warmth for all parts. I remember in the September 2016 heatwave when Gravesend recorded 34c either the arome or arpege did very well with temp predictions I'll  be following those models more closely now I think after today

Screenshot_20180416-164347.png

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56 minutes ago, John Michael How said:

I live in Gravesend and have been to Heathrow and central London today as a driver I can confirm it felt a lot warmer than the low 20s this afternoon. And tomorrow's meant to be a fair bit hotter still! Although the SE admittedly has naff winters in general I must admit we do ok in summer being pretty sheltered from the Atlantic influences that you northerners know all about. Let's hope we get some warmth for all parts. I remember in the September 2016 heatwave when Gravesend recorded 34c either the arome or arpege did very well with temp predictions I'll  be following those models more closely now I think after today

Screenshot_20180416-164347.png

At the time of posting the ECM & MO were nowhere near the blowtorch of a GFS that was showing.   

Edited by 38.5*C

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Yes, this is the third spell of really interesting weather we've had this year, after the two Beasts (I really do wonder if 2018 will prove to be a memorable year for all sorts of weather - hope so) and we've now got all these new shorter range models we didn't have access to before, so it is really interesting to see how they perform when big stuff is happening!
I think the consensus is that the HIRLAM did very well with the precipitation (including convective) during the snow events.  According to @Man With Beard in the short range model thread, it appears AROME did well today, here's the model at 2pm.  It looks good to me, 23C in my spot by 4pm which looks consistent, maybe it has underdone just a little bit.

I know this is a T1 chart but these short range models have failed the look out of the window test on many occasions in my view.

image.thumb.jpg.e70743f73588fe00a4ef42e41f10bebb.jpg

Let's see how it does with forecast for tomorrow 4pm, I think this will be several degrees on the cool side:

image.thumb.jpg.690027ab8c62a2eb8f1274d386978883.jpg

Longer term, westerlies nailed on after the heat wave, but ECM T240 still teasing amplification (west Atlantic) which could maybe indicate a possible northerly later?

ECM1-240.GIF?18-0

Edited by Mike Poole

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Interesting model watching for the London marathon runners on Sunday. Interestingly the models have slowly been revising the pattern more east. Earlier in the week a ridge was expected to be sitting over the south and now it’s quite far East. I wonder if this continues whether the cooler air will reach all areas earlier than thought and give some welcome relief to us runners.

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Looking at the GEFS 12z mean beyond this week shows an increasingly unsettled atlantic driven pattern with temperatures returning closer to average but feeling cool at times during stronger winds and spells of rain, probably the best of any pleasant weather tending to be across the s / se..back to 🌎 with a bump next week.

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1 hour ago, Alex said:

Interesting model watching for the London marathon runners on Sunday. Interestingly the models have slowly been revising the pattern more east. Earlier in the week a ridge was expected to be sitting over the south and now it’s quite far East. I wonder if this continues whether the cooler air will reach all areas earlier than thought and give some welcome relief to us runners.

I really hope so for anyone running the marathon on Sunday, let's get it back under 20c for you all otherwise it's going to be just that bit tougher than it already is for so many people doing something I am in awe of for charity - very best of luck to everyone running! 

I have to say today has been just the perfect temperature for me in central London, up to 25c, just perfect for wandering around in (should read: wandering to the park for a beer in). Tomorrow will probably be a little bit unbearable for so early in the season with 28c likely to be hit I would think looking at high res modelling. Back down a few degrees it looks like again by Friday and into the weekend so something a bit more comfortable.

What an incredible couple of months of weather we have had

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It could reach 28 to possibly 29c in london today, the Gfs 00z says 26 but I think 27-29 celsius...in any case, a stunning summery blue skies sunny day for many areas and tomorrow could again hit 26 / 27c in the SE and 25-26c on saturday..hope this is just the appetizer for a great summer to come!🌞🌞🌞:)

00_15_uk2mtmp.png

00_15_mslp850.png

00_15_ukthickness850.png

00_39_uk2mtmp.png

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ECM1-168.GIF?19-12

A slight window of opportunity shown on the ECM and the other models this morning at 168, a sneaky little low diving towards the Azores could force a pressure rise for us:

ECM1-192.GIF?19-12

On the GFS this eventually turns into high pressure and an easterly. Miles too far away to take that seriously, but it does appear to be the next cog in the whirring machine. Let's see where it goes.

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ECM gives a little window of warmer weather again towards next weekend

ECMOPEU00_192_1.thumb.png.66717158ad1d477bce0268933ee2a6e1.pngECMOPEU00_216_1.thumb.png.44ab5bf2c5406e4f47f0cc48378b0127.pngECMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.5e2b5f15a7a22c6b7ba41196988fb37b.png

ECMOPEU00_192_2.thumb.png.3f3563197e5872ed5b985e6eb99805f1.pngECMOPEU00_216_2.thumb.png.ee4c595efaf36e240f8703be168fbd59.pngECMOPEU00_240_2.thumb.png.5b9bf28ddc6302e6cd2e0e57e2290e87.png

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Better Gefs 00z mean longer term, although we enter a more zonal atlantic pattern next week, it looks like the south would see some high pressure / ridging at times so potentially more of a north / south split with the most unsettled weather tending to be further n / nw with the s / se seeing some fine warmer weather between the more unsettled spells..better than last evening's 12z mean.:)🌞

Edited by Frosty.

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2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM gives a little window of warmer weather again towards next weekend

ECMOPEU00_192_1.thumb.png.66717158ad1d477bce0268933ee2a6e1.pngECMOPEU00_216_1.thumb.png.44ab5bf2c5406e4f47f0cc48378b0127.pngECMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.5e2b5f15a7a22c6b7ba41196988fb37b.png

ECMOPEU00_192_2.thumb.png.3f3563197e5872ed5b985e6eb99805f1.pngECMOPEU00_216_2.thumb.png.ee4c595efaf36e240f8703be168fbd59.pngECMOPEU00_240_2.thumb.png.5b9bf28ddc6302e6cd2e0e57e2290e87.png

Maybe but the ensembles show a definite cool down

image.thumb.png.66eebd5d7958e0d7aad65dbd8bc1a520.png

:closedeyes:

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7 minutes ago, Purga said:

Maybe but the ensembles show a definite cool down

image.thumb.png.66eebd5d7958e0d7aad65dbd8bc1a520.png

:closedeyes:

Hi can any of you on here tell me what kind of weather the north Yorkshire coast is likely to get from the 28th april for a week or so. Thanks in advance 

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A pretty unsettled Gfs 6z once the atlantic breaks down the door during sunday with no real respite from low pressure (s) through most of the run, however, I think further south won't be unsettled all the time, as the Gefs 00z mean showed i expect some high pressure / ridging and associated fine weather to occasionally develop, at least across southern uk.:)

Edited by Frosty.

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GFS is well out for today 27.5c before noon at Heathrow

4-778-1H.thumb.GIF.f454af3ec9e209b2ffc58565191a8db6.GIF

Could 30c be hit?!

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24 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS is well out for today 27.5c before noon at Heathrow

4-778-1H.thumb.GIF.f454af3ec9e209b2ffc58565191a8db6.GIF

Could 30c be hit?!

I'm 'only' seeing 26C through my sources - where are you looking?

Latest AROME had Heathrow at 26C by 12pm so if my sources are right it is bang on target. The model goes on to reach 28C across much of London but no spot actually breaching 29C.

 

image.png

Edited by Man With Beard

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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

I'm 'only' seeing 26C through my sources - where are you looking?

Latest AROME had Heathrow at 26C by 12pm so if my sources are right it is bang on target. The model goes on to reach 28C across much of London but no spot actually breaching 29C.

 

image.png

Some 27s on the map now.

temp_uk.png

Warning this chart will change!  I posted it showing 13.50 BST, 12.50 UTC

ARPEGE maxing out about 25c.

arpegeuk-0-9-0.png?19-12

I think today is going to outdo the models, still time to heat up given totally clear sky - that's in Oxfordshire anyway.

Edited by Mike Poole

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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

I'm 'only' seeing 26C through my sources - where are you looking?

Latest AROME had Heathrow at 26C by 12pm so if my sources are right it is bang on target. The model goes on to reach 28C across much of London but no spot actually breaching 29C.

 

image.png

1

Official met office data now the hottest April day since 1949!

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