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Model output discussion 14/04/18

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Good news from 12z ECM the warmth lasts throughout the weekend and well into next week

ECMOPEU12_192_1.thumb.png.dfc379c8be507212e84bad559e6bd083.pngECMOPEU12_216_1.thumb.png.eb3d5e53bc51161e65eac153a2e0dccc.pngECMOPEU12_240_1.thumb.png.ea7a0c9ccf7c0c73e6a537a94bb25a45.png

ECMOPEU12_192_2.thumb.png.91c12a442b7ed9a1084f21f02df2dfdc.pngECMOPEU12_216_2.thumb.png.c7d9ac136c69017286de6bd348beacfe.pngECMOPEU12_240_2.thumb.png.6f640f89b55d6c286ad8d5bd834993c9.png

:) 

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The Ecm 12z turns into a superb run for warmth / heat / high pressure / glorious early to mid may sunshine..just what those in the soggy cold southeast and indeed the majority elsewhere will love to see..awesome charts..please be right!:D🌞

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120_mslp500.png

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144_mslp500.png

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168_thickuk.png

168_mslp500.png

192_mslp500.png

192_mslp850.png

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216_mslp850.png

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240_mslp500.png

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169993-Brace-Yourselves-Summer-Is-Coming.jpg

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Is pleasant temps i.e 20-21 or so too much to ask? Why does it always have to be ruined? And people wonder why I prefer rain...

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The ECM is outrageously good for summery conditions. If that comes off it will be a May in the history books:)

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18 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 12z turns into a superb run for warmth / heat / high pressure / glorious early to mid may sunshine..just what those in the soggy cold southeast and indeed the majority elsewhere will love to see..awesome charts..please be right!:D🌞

96_mslp500.png

96_thickuk.png

120_mslp500.png

120_thickuk.png

144_mslp500.png

144_thickuk.png

144_thick.png

168_thickuk.png

168_mslp500.png

192_mslp500.png

192_mslp850.png

192_mslp850uk.png

192_thickuk.png

216_mslp850.png

216_thickuk.png

240_mslp500.png

240_thickuk.png

169993-Brace-Yourselves-Summer-Is-Coming.jpg

What sort of temperatures would we be looking at? :3

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3 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

What sort of temperatures would we be looking at? :3

18-23 or 24 for most. Maybe a touch higher in the capital.

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30 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I'm really optimistic about the coming summer, bring it on!

Ditto mike, I will be a very happy bunny if the Ecm 12z is right too, temperatures well into the 20's celsius at times across the southern half of the uk, above 80F on some days further south / southeast and even the less hot days into the low 20's c...Bank!:D

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High pressure on a bank holiday weekend?

 

Faulty data surely...:laugh:

 

ECM1-144.thumb.GIF.24ba94bac04fb236eb3ab2d2a087fd63.GIF

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2 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

18-23 or 24 for most. Maybe a touch higher in the capital.

Perfect enough for me.

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We will possibly be nudging over 80f again if some of these verify. 850s of 11-13c in early May with strong sunshine will see the temps rocket. All very dependent on cloud amounts. I wonder if someone will claim it won’t get past 23c like last time when it got to 29c :D

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ECM ensembles out and a strong signal supportive of the warm settled weather.  T168:

EDM1-168.GIF?30-0

And at T240 still looking good for a mean chart this far out:

EDM1-240.GIF?30-0

All good as far as I can see!

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37 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

18-23 or 24 for most. Maybe a touch higher in the capital.

Looking at the ECM chart for Tuesday, I think anywhere from the Lake District south could do a bit better than that. With the uppers at 10C+ and a favourable wind direction, you can often add 15C to that in strong May sushine. In any case I would bite anyone's hand off if they offered 23C right now after the week just gone!

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46 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

We will possibly be nudging over 80f again if some of these verify. 850s of 11-13c in early May with strong sunshine will see the temps rocket. All very dependent on cloud amounts. I wonder if someone will claim it won’t get past 23c like last time when it got to 29c :D

22 max in London, you guys really need to gain some experience :D.

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10 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Looking at the ECM chart for Tuesday, I think anywhere from the Lake District south could do a bit better than that. With the uppers at 10C+ and a favourable wind direction, you can often add 15C to that in strong May sushine. In any case I would bite anyone's hand off if they offered 23C right now after the week just gone!

Absolutely! 11c and a strong north wind does not do it for me!

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In the words of Chris Fawkes tonight "High pressure could stick around for quite some time"

It doesn't at this stage look like it will be a 2 day, blink and you'll miss it affair looking at some of the output tonight 

UKMO extended 👇

ukm2.2018050712_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.f8362686f704ebefd195a6f9a4d5498e.png

 

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Well, this evening's runs are enough to get one thinking back to how much the last spell of 'warm drift' from the continent was underestimated in terms of maximums.

I'd not be surprised to see the mid-20s widely across the southwest region by Sunday if tonight's ECM was very near the mark. GFS threatens a little too much cloud but it's a close run thing.

ensplume_small.gif ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

MayPhase8gt1500mb.gifMayPhase1gt1500mb.gifMayPhase2gt1500mb.gif

A bit of MJO phase 8-2 activity in the models but phase 8 is only a vague fit for the trend this Friday onward, with the best fit being the phase we don't look to reach until a fortnight's time anyway. So it seems this is not much of a factor at the moment... unless, that is, there is a key component of the MJO that's actually advancing ahead of the what the diagrams suggest, which can be the case sometimes.

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1 hour ago, Matthew. said:

The ECM is outrageously good for summery conditions. If that comes off it will be a May in the history books:)

With a couple of days in the mid or high 20s?

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1 minute ago, B87 said:

With a couple of days in the mid or high 20s?

Well the 'Heatwave' started off with low 20s before steadily upgrading closer to the event cloud dependant the mid to upper 20s could certainly be hit   

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Well the 'Heatwave' started off with low 20s before steadily upgrading closer to the event cloud dependant the mid to upper 20s could certainly be hit   

May 2012 had 10 days in a row with temps at or above 25c, but it wasn't a great month. Certainly not one for the history books.

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3 minutes ago, B87 said:

May 2012 had 10 days in a row with temps at or above 25c, but it wasn't a great month. Certainly not one for the history books.

 

f9d.gif

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3 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

 

f9d.gif

May 2016 was a much better month even though it never really got hot. It was always mild or warm and had normal amounts of sun, unlike 2012 which was total dross for 3 weeks, with most of the sun for the month coming in a 10 day spell.

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17 minutes ago, B87 said:

With a couple of days in the mid or high 20s?

I was thinking of pressure anomalies, sunshine anomalies and not just CET although that could be interesting if this pattern kept up for long enough eg ECM

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1 minute ago, B87 said:

May 2016 was a much better month even though it never really got hot. It was always mild or warm and had normal amounts of sun, unlike 2012 which was total dross for 3 weeks, with most of the sun for the month coming in a 10 day spell.

London does very well for warmth lol. Try moving to scotland.

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1 minute ago, Ice Man 85 said:

London does very well for warmth lol. Try moving to scotland.

I would suffer every year if I lived there. May 2016 had 1 day above 25c and 9 above 20c in London, which is about average for those thresholds. May 2012 had 10 days above 20c, of which 8 were above 25c and 3 above 27c, yet 2016 was the better month.

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