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Model output discussion 14/04/18

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The 7-day mean continues to improve 

ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.556befb8bb352304581279eee4eb3b08.png

Next weekend looks very nice indeed with temps quite widely in the high teens to low 20s maybe the mid 20s in the London area

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Lovely charts from the Ecm 12z between fri / tues, especially for the southern half of the uk with high pressure, plenty of strong early may sunshine, light winds and temperatures widely into the low 20's celsius across england and wales during the BH weekend and mid 20's c for favoured spots in the s / se...another taste of summer on the way according to this run.:) 

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192_mslp500.png

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216_mslp850.png

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Evening ! After the Winter cold of the last few days the weather generally looks to be looking fairer as we move into May, High pressure tries to move in but it struggles too as a strong jet stream from the Atlantic scuppers any chance of dry ,prolonged settled conditions .....

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1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

It certainly hasn't shown that in previous runs- the GFS really can't make its mind up at the moment. The Euros have been far more consistent.

Well the OPs have been inconsistent but to say the ECM has been any better is false. I've been checking the EC ens twice daily and the variations have been massive. we've gone from a max of +6 850s to +10s right to day 10 now we have something closer to the GFS with +8s around the weekend dropping to +5s thereafter. Also the GFS has been showing the "warmest" period to be next sat/sun for a few days now.

Here's the 12z ens. This mornings were higher than that. OP has also been all over the place. sometimes even a massive outlier. This chart also shows the peak to be roughly 48 hours or so, ala GFS.

graphe_ens3.php.png

Edited by Ice Man 85

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The updated EPS 12z never show a strong +ve temp anomaly for UK throughout its run - it goes positive Friday thru Bank holiday monday, but therafter, it goes negative once more, staying that way out to day 16. This would tie in with the EPS 46 dayer... which has shown a below average May in its last series of updates.

The GEFS would tend to agree, though less marked in comparison. Back to the old adage of 'more runs' etc. 

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Well when we have disagreement at 36 hours out for the rain/snow event tomorrow (the latter likely very unrealistic) then I think seaweed and the farmer's almanac would be more reliable than the models.

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12 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Well when we have disagreement at 36 hours out for the rain/snow event tomorrow (the latter likely very unrealistic) then I think seaweed and the farmer's almanac would be more reliable than the models.

They certainly have been struggling to get a handle on this rain so I think let's just wait and see during the early hours how much of central southern and eastern England have the rain.

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2 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

They certainly have been struggling to get a handle on this rain so I think let's just wait and see during the early hours how much of central southern and eastern England have the rain.

once its arrived you mean? defeats the definition of forecasting no?

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Re will it won't it.

Just a shame that the modern forecaster is now so stuck with issuing what the model shows. It is near enough for a professional use the data inputs and training to arrive at a 'man made' forecast. Sadly that seems no longer to be allowed in UK Met at any rate.

I never got the time today otherwise I would have had a go just to see if those skills long unused were still okay!

Maybe the next time we get a situation like this.

It is a fact, I know not why, all models struggle more than usual in predicting rainfall when they originate from a southerly rather than a more westerly point.

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Well it looks like the snow risk some of the earlier models today were showing has now disappeared and even the heavy rain has been shunted further east and southeast with more of the uk looking drier tomorrow..anyway, further ahead the warmer and more settled spell later in the week and through the BH weekend, especially for england and wales is continuing to firm up so that's something to look forward to.:)

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23 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

once its arrived you mean? defeats the definition of forecasting no?

 

23 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

once its arrived you mean? defeats the definition of forecasting no?

As it is arriving we will be able to see how far west it's getting I've stated that forecast models have been very useless over the last few days and the only way to know is to check the rader in real time during the morning and see. It's going to be a nowcasting situation.

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2 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Well the OPs have been inconsistent but to say the ECM has been any better is false. I've been checking the EC ens twice daily and the variations have been massive. we've gone from a max of +6 850s to +10s right to day 10 now we have something closer to the GFS with +8s around the weekend dropping to +5s thereafter. Also the GFS has been showing the "warmest" period to be next sat/sun for a few days now.

Here's the 12z ens. This mornings were higher than that. OP has also been all over the place. sometimes even a massive outlier. This chart also shows the peak to be roughly 48 hours or so, ala GFS.

graphe_ens3.php.png

The GFS is all over the place- just look at the 18Z run now. It would be far more than a 2 day affair if you go by this run.

A very strong build of high pressure with very little encroachment from the Atlantic.

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Looking over the model outputs there's still a fair amount of uncertainty over how much of the country will get the warm sunshine and if the UKMO/ECMWF outputs verify, the actual outcome may fall rather short of expectations for those living in the northern two-thirds of the country.  Looking at the UKMO and ECMWF outputs, a NW-SE split is likely with central, southern and eastern England underneath the high pressure and probably seeing plenty of dry sunny weather and temperatures around 20C, maybe rather above that on the Sunday, but with a continued south-westerly flow further north which may mean closer to average temperatures, breezy conditions and variable amounts of cloud.  The GFS however has the high further north and an inflow of dry continental air which would see dry sunny weather covering a large majority of the country.

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Generally in these situations I tend to back UKMO/ECM over GFS, but it's worth noting that NOAA's 6-10 day outlook seems to suggest an outcome somewhere in between:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

At present it's certainly looking good for outdoor activities over the Bank Holiday weekend if you live in central, southern or eastern England.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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The 7 day forecast mean is now trending average or a bit above average for all but some parts of the south

ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.a09b79e497285f23dd55ecb12078c201.png

Forecast at D7

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The GFS 0Z shows a very fragmented and disorganised Jetstream over the North Atlantic for the middle of May:

image.thumb.gif.b32ffb73406ac6285248d5a066794150.gif

Would I be right in thinking that this would leave the UK in a changeable pattern but with no extremes either way?  No more storms, heavy rain or sudden severe frosts would be a good thing in my view.   Let's get on with the summer! 

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ECM looking good for the bank holiday weekend:

ECM1-120.GIF?30-12ECM1-144.GIF?30-12ECM1-168.GIF?30-12

Turning settled, and much, much warmer. Temps back into the low 20s for some. It quickly goes downhill into midweek, but that's a way off yet. GFS and GEM look very different at the same timeframe, so best ignored for now. Let's get the high pressure in first, then worry after.

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210-582UK.GIF?30-0

GFS has the heat peaking at 26c into early next week. Still over a week away, so very likely to change.

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Morning all :)

A pretty disappointing start to the week here in lowland East London with rain and a cold wind but change is the only constant when it comes to our weather and it's looked likely for some time the first May Bank Holiday Weekend will be decent but what happens from there.

Today the medium term analysis takes us to Thursday May 10th and starts with the ECM 00Z at T+240:

ECM1-240.GIF?30-12

The fine spell over the BH weekend breaks down next week as the HP declines far enough east to open the door to the trough and more than a hint from this chart that the LP could slip SE into Europe and change things considerably. For now, a gradual cooling with rain or showers encroaching from the north west.

GEM 00Z at the same time:

gem-0-240.png?00

Anticyclonic and settled would be my take on the GEM run this morning. The HP for the Bank Holiday weekend is easing away but the ridge from the Azores id heading NE through Ireland and western Scotland so a continuation of decent weather. Note the shallow LP to the south however which brings a risk of showers to extreme southern areas but most places will be fine and dry.

GFS 00Z OP at T+240:

gfs-0-240.png

Another evolution from GFS. The HP keeps well to the north and the LP becomes a cut-off feature well to the west of the British Isles so for most the weather remains warm and settled but with a growing risk of rain or showers for south western parts. Note also the profile around Greenland which in contrast to ECM and GEM and shows heights and warmer air. Further into FI and heights remain strong to the north throughout with winds mainly from the east.

GFS 00Z Control at T+240:

gens-0-1-240.png

Very different again. Weaker heights to the NE and the trough coming SE into Ireland and western Britain so a much more unsettled prospect. Further into FI and the LP initially is close to southern Britain before retreating slightly SW and at far FI the OP and Control are actually quite close in terms of evolution with Control setting up an easterly pattern.

The 00Z GEFS at T+240:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

The key message to my eye is HP is close to or just to the north or north east of the British Isles but little sign of a strongly Atlantic pattern with only two or three Members suggesting it by this time. Further into FI and there's a surprising lack of spread suggesting a strong signal for northern blocking for the middle of the month and beyond.

In summary, after the forthcoming fine weekend plenty of disagreement over future developments. ECM and GFS suggest a breakdown from the NW with the trough dropping close to (GFS Control, ECM OP) or to the west of the British Isles (GFS OP) with only GEM OP keeping the weather relatively settled though with hints of problems for the south and indeed further into FI the signal of heights to the south with pressure lower over the south and south west seems to be quite noticeable as we move into the middle of the month and beyond but we often see this in low-res and it doesn't translate as we come into high-res.

Anyway, some pleasant days in the near future to enjoy.

 

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Excellent Ukmo - temps rising back into the low 20s as we head into bank holiday weekend. Best of the conditions the further south and east.

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6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Excellent Ukmo - temps rising back into the low 20s as we head into bank holiday weekend. Best of the conditions the further south and east.

One would conclude that it will be a slow transition to notably sunnier conditions, this change being pronounced when/if a continental feed forms. One certain though is a warming trend with temperatures trending around or just above average and feeling very pleasant indeed.  

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Well, after today's rain in the SE (which the models handled appallingly in my view) thoughts turn to the holiday weekend and beyond, and the 12s look good!  UKMO Sunday:
UW144-21.GIF?30-18
ICON good to Tuesday:
icon-0-180.png?30-12
GEM at Sunday and rebuilding for Thursday:
gem-0-144.png?12
gem-0-240.png?12
GFS at Sunday and 2 weeks Wednesday:
gfs-0-144.png?12
gfs-0-384.png?12
Don't think I've seen the 11112C contour over the UK before:
gfs-1-372.png?12

Liking the look of May from the model output so far!

 

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The Gfs 12z is looking great for the BH weekend with settled summer like conditions for most of the uk, especially further south...and looking into low res, plenty more summery charts too.:)🌞 

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Absolutely brilliant 12z ECM for the holiday weekend, it doesn't get much better than this

ECMOPEU12_96_1.thumb.png.d7a1c173d6e9fa4910192b45c0bcaa5f.pngECMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.cb4f60b9511710e3e0b875bb27908272.pngECMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.b196cd63a00e0cae71545f3d9f9a9537.pngECMOPEU12_168_1.thumb.png.60509c02b66ecd15883066740bd6120f.png

Enjoy :) 

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