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Model output discussion 14/04/18

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A very good T+240 compared to the 00z..I'm very happy with this Ecm run and even happier that England are in the semi finals!:D

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There's sort of a trend for higher heights UK-Scandinavia next weekend onward than initially modelled, but it's coming up against a lot of resistance from the models which seem to be doing everything they can to try and move cooler air toward the UK from the northwest so that a trough can develop near enough to bring some unsettled weather.

I wonder how much longer that resistance can hold on, should the underlying trend (never mind how weak at this stage) continue.

Fascinating times (and with England's progress and the way they went about it, somewhat surreal!) 😎.

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I'm just not buying the idea we revert to a UK trough as some of the models seem to be suggesting.  For me the ridge from the Azores will reload until something big causes a major pattern change.  ECM kept the faith, so does the FIM9:

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as long as these charts are in the output for me prolonging the ridge is the form horse, even if there's a bit of a wobble at some point - from the 12z output no such wobble can be pinned down!😎 ⚽

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I agree mike, any real change is still outside the reliable timeframe..hope it stays there!:D

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Just flicking through the GEFS 12z extended, I found some that show this very summery pattern continuing into late july!.😎☀️

Anyway, according to the models in the more reliable timeframe it's going to be hotting up yet again through the second half of next week.

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2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

I'm just not buying the idea we revert to a UK trough as some of the models seem to be suggesting.  For me the ridge from the Azores will reload until something big causes a major pattern change.  ECM kept the faith, so does the FIM9:

image.thumb.jpg.d92f60fae548d3d0da27f82ba38376cf.jpg

as long as these charts are in the output for me prolonging the ridge is the form horse, even if there's a bit of a wobble at some point - from the 12z output no such wobble can be pinned down!😎 ⚽

Fim9? 🤔Is this the summer version of BOM?

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1 hour ago, Snowy L said:

Fim9? 🤔Is this the summer version of BOM?

The FIM9 is an experimental American model.  It was touted as successor to GFS but  lost out to the FV3, the current GFS parallel which I have occasionally posted on here also.  Both these models are of roughly equivalent resolution to GFS so they are of interest to me because I like to keep in mind a kind of 'grand ensemble' of all the high res global runs. To complement the GEFS ensembles which are lower resolution, and the ECM ones which most of us can't see. 

The BOM,Australian model  I think, seems to have exploded - I can't find it's output any more.  

Anyway tonight's pub run, bearing in mind the football ⚽ - go England! - has this at T192:

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I'm not entirely comfortable with the low to the northwest., in that I don't think it will pan out like that. We'll see, as always 😗

Edited by Mike Poole
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On 03/07/2018 at 22:22, damianslaw said:

I said I wouldn't look at the models all week - alas failed.. but I've just been looking at jetstream profile forecasts only today, and well longer range (yes 10 days out), they show a resurgent jet eventually possibly ushering in a more atlantic feed, the precursor or trigger so to speak is the signal for a cut off low to our SW scrubbing out the azores high, this would allow a plume of southerly air ahead of it next week - with some very high temps with it, before a thundery breakdown, the jet then sinking south and we end up for the first time since early April on the colder side; cyclonic springs to mind, which would bring a major pattern change.

I'll be keeping an eye on the jetstream profile forecasts over the days ahead.

Edited by thestixx

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I too disagree that the end is nigh so to speak. 

It is admittedly turning a little more unsettled, especially early this coming week, but picks up again in the mid week to settled conditions and 25c+. Given how long this spell has gone on for, a couple of days of cloud is not too insulting. Still no rain on the cards which would take it over 50 days without rainfall. Quite astonishing really.  

Fact is, once we adopt these very stubborn highs and high jet, it is very difficult to shake (in a good way) and I see nothing to suggest that’s likely to happen. Rebuilds look the most likely outcome once again. 

I personally believe we have yet to see the peak of this summers powers and have a feeling that the end of July/start of August is when we might see it come to its peak. To me, a reload and high heat is inevitable. 

We may have seen most of the uninterrupted weeks of crystal blue skies and no cloud however as we seem to be slowly building a trend of more cloud now. But that remains to be seen. 

As said, I don’t think this summer has played its full hand yet and I almost guarantee more dry, warm/hot weather to come. I also don’t see this summer blowing out with a plume back to Atlantic muck either. I personally believe it will be a summer akin to 1976 where you have very short blips but very long dry and warm periods and it will simply fizzle out the later in the year we get. 

Come on, this is the year England have made the semifinals and we have gone more than just 4 days with no rain and a bit of sun. It’s all going our way and think this is becoming quite a memorable year. 

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Taking the outlook on a weekly basis, not run to run... We're absolutely locked in to the best period of anticyclonic weather I can remember in years. There's absolutely no way this settled weather is breaking down this month. Folks on here are literally looking ten days away for some huge trough to sit over us. Ain't gonna happen imo. Take a break from the models guys. This year is a vintage!

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4 hours ago, ajpoolshark said:

how on earth can a model 'scream' anything at T200+ ??.....pop your post in the moans/ramps thread as unless reworded such as 'GFS 12z in isolation on this particular run shows a possiblility, and admittedly, only a potential, for more cyclonic conditions in deep FI which as we all know has as much chance of verifying as t**s on fish' is completely OTT............. I am exaggerating a tad, but sheesh, your post is a bit dramatic to be fair 

just my opinion on what gfs is showing. It might be nothing, it might be something. We'll see. I just have a bad feeling about it that is all. Its UK weather after all.

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3 minutes ago, thestixx said:

Taking the outlook on a weekly basis, not run to run... We're absolutely locked in to the best period of anticyclonic weather I can remember in years. There's absolutely no way this settled weather is breaking down this month. Folks on here are literally looking ten days away for some huge trough to sit over us. Ain't gonna happen imo. Take a break from the models guys. This year is a vintage!

Absolutely. 

Any model, no matter how anticyclonic the present, will throw out duds. It’s what they do. 

Time and time again we have seen ‘breakdowns’ shown 10 days out, only to be denied closer the time. I see this time as no different. 

We are in a very static and stable trend that is very stubborn and will take some shifting. 

 

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Despite the doubts of some on this thread and the Euro holding out (it has a much sharper upper trough near Portugal and Biscay) i myself am fairly on board with this as there is a fair signal for scrubbing of the westerlies with enhanced Pacific trades which is likely to produce a strengthened mid-lattitude westerly in the Atlantic. 

Again i will point out that i am suggesting that we see a 2017 repeat, just that we move to a more normal N/S westerly pattern for a while however with a breakdown still a week away i'd enjoy the coming week.

GFSOPEU18_216_33.png

 

Edited by summer blizzard

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GFS has been very poor with its convective rainfall predictive charts recently

This was last Sunday's chart for Thursday

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and for Friday

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Monday's chart for last night

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I'm not convinced that much rain will have accumulated by next Saturday

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Well this mornings runs are clear as mud.

All handling the low differently at day 5/6, and ECM even runs the tropical depression from the eastern US across the Atlantic - not shown by any other run today - which is really unhelpful! Starting to get to the time of year when TDs make model runs bin fodder some of the time.

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Nice to see the Ecm 00z hotting up again later in the week and through next weekend and well into the following week!😎🌞🌡️

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ECM is hot all the way till the 18th this morning (aside one or two "cooler" days in the mid 20s this coming week) 

The EC clusters were kind enough to give us a choice at T168 last night, and you can actually see that deeper Atlantic low on the main cluster 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018070712_168.

The result of this cluster seems to be to stall the low like the ECM op run does this morning - would that be over the UK or west? - but it does promote a fresh ridge ahead of it, prolonging the heatwave. 

But such a low will mess up the Atlantic profile, so less certainty beyond D7 I would guess. 

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9 hours ago, thestixx said:

Taking the outlook on a weekly basis, not run to run... We're absolutely locked in to the best period of anticyclonic weather I can remember in years. There's absolutely no way this settled weather is breaking down this month. Folks on here are literally looking ten days away for some huge trough to sit over us. Ain't gonna happen imo. Take a break from the models guys. This year is a vintage!

 

I just checked my calendar and it’s the 8th ............ the extended modelling on the eps is becoming consistently upper troughy headed into the last third of the month. Worst the further nw as per usual. 

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23 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

i dont share your optimism. there is pretty good agreement that after next weekend it will turn cooler, fresher, and unsettled as a mean upper trough takes up residence in the north atlantic. the noaa anomaly charts predict the evolution clearly and the ops are now putting on the detail.

of course it might not happen, its not set in stone, and even if it does happen it might not be a total pattern change but a brief blip before more high pressure domination resumes.

for me, it is the best spell since 1995...

And any agreement (if you can call it that) is still in FI, which is where it’s been for ages. It might transpires, but the position of the trough is inconsistent across the models.

I won’t be concerned until that trough is shown at T120, and it’s nowhere near that at the moment.

Edited by Djdazzle
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It’s hard to know what’s going to happen longer term - I think we’re still looking good for the next 7/8 days in most areas, after that the longer term signals/ensembles/anomalies all point to something a bit more mobile, but not a washout. Perhaps something more traditional for these shores....but until the low gets modelled correctly, we won’t know either way.

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It looks like in the coming week Tuesday is going to be the coolest day with a fairly stiff NE wind, cloud amounts look variable rather than a persistent stream off the north sea so sunshine and broekn cloud with the chance of a few light showers. Mind you Tuesday still looks pretty warm away from north sea coasts.

Midweek onwards looks decent again for those liking warmth and sunshine and temperautres will be rising steadily again. One thing which does look quite consistent is that the warming trend will last into the weekend and yet again 30C looks possible on both days and plenty of sunshine for most with light winds so another stunning weekend for going out.

ECM for example but all the models have a ridge through the UK.

ECM1-144.GIF?08-12   ECM1-168.GIF?08-12

 

As an aside I am a little surprised that no model output and experimented in pushing that trough further south in the Atlantic towards the Azores, even the ECM which stalls that low sees to leave a rather flat Atlantic jet stream profile. An amplified pattern with a trough in the Atlantic would be of interest to some and possibly distain to others.....

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

And any agreement (if you can call it that) is still in FI, which is where it’s been for ages. It might transpires, but the position of the trough is inconsistent across the models.

I won’t be concerned until that trough is shown at T120, and it’s nowhere near that at the moment.

bib , which is why i view the noaa anomaly charts first as they are the most accurate suite for predicting the mean position of any feature.

dont get me wrong, id love the heat to continue and it might well do. but i cannot ignore the gathering signals .

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With regards to the low, the models this morning had sub-1020mb pressure over the UK by days 7 and 8 which means that even if the low lacks a sting, the resistance is unlikely to be there. While it's always possible that it will be a brief two day affair before it rebuilds (though i doubt it) the current output would suggest that a front moves through most of the UK with probably a few showers before and afterward.

The caveat of course is that the low contains part of what is forecast to become a hurricane so we have to monitor the strength of the system in the coming days.

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