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Model output discussion 14/04/18

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On a morning of good news, UKMO extended at t168 shows high pressure starting to build a bit of rain in the north but dry for the majority

ukm2.2018050500_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.7b588aed1b02e1d828b4be864cda8682.png

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The 00z ECM ens is looking pretty good from later next week with pressure relatively high for England and Wales

EDU1-168.GIF.thumb.png.91498dbaf52e429e3829802a1ec26658.pngEDU1-192.GIF.thumb.png.2882fb5897f4a40d6c930cb05daa6053.pngEDU1-216.GIF.thumb.png.cd2884f30ef7cb1eed6b865c4b147142.pngEDU1-240.GIF.thumb.png.332befbe24c24917f40bbe4a3808c014.png

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Changes to the 500 mb anomaly charts since my last close look on Thursday, see below

EC-GFS fairly similar to one another with any throughing now well back west of the UK, ridging more in evidence close by SE quarter of country as well. Thus a flow from south of west.

As you can see from the NOAA version they do differ from it, NOAA has shifted the trough well east of the UK and has marked ridging in the Jan Meyen area, also similar on the 8-14 output.

So marked differences which leaves us with no real clear idea today of just what the 500 mb flow will be by day 6 out to day 14.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

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Liking the trend of recent model runs towards more settled conditions.  GFS 6z looks promising, T192, T240:

gfs-0-192.png?6

gfs-0-240.png?6

If this is the start of a more northerly track of the jet stream then this can only bode well for the summer:

gfs-5-252.png?6

Edit, and this one holds off the Atlantic until the end of the run:

gfs-0-384.png?6

Edited by Mike Poole
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Meanwhile, in the nearer term, here's HIRLAM's first take on the Monday morning precipitation:

Sacrebleu!

hirlamuk-1-48-0.png?28-12

Possible 50p-sized snowflakes in my neck of the woods if this verifies!

Edited by Mike Poole
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5 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Meanwhile, in the nearer term, here's HIRLAM's first take on the Monday morning precipitation:

Sacrebleu!

hirlamuk-1-48-0.png?28-12

Possible 50p-sized snowflakes in my neck of the woods if this verifies!

If things come off the way like the 00Z ECMWF (and in some ways what the 00Z GEM) shows in FI, then I like how we could go from a spell of rain, sleet or snow on Monday to a less unsettled and warmer spell within a few days! ❄️💧🌤🔥

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Hard to believe following the recent heatwave conditions the SE had but the Gfs 12z shows a wintry start to May with a risk of snow in places early next tuesday morning!❄❄⛄⛄:cold: ..wonder if Steve's lurking:D

12_66_preciptype.png

12_66_ukwbt.png

b4a1da991a5c03539e371bb60a54aa40.jpg

Edited by Frosty.
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Really good to have 12z UKMO on board with the high pressure for later in the week

UKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.08e08194a580cda7cefc7320cf9120db.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.4368e63c3cbff72a8287710dde383098.png

:):good:

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22 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Really good to have 12z UKMO on board with the high pressure for later in the week

UKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.08e08194a580cda7cefc7320cf9120db.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.4368e63c3cbff72a8287710dde383098.png

:):good:

Excellent to see SS. Still open to question where high pressure will eventually set up but its a drying trend as we go through next week. 

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48 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Really good to have 12z UKMO on board with the high pressure for later in the week

UKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.08e08194a580cda7cefc7320cf9120db.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.4368e63c3cbff72a8287710dde383098.png

:):good:

Yes great charts SS, sick of this winter now, hope EC on board later

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This is certainly going to be a post of two halves!  Cold half first, the HIRLAM is not letting go of the snowy Monday, quite the reverse, here at T45 on the 12z:

hirlamuk-1-45-0.png?28-18

This would be fascinating if it came off!

Now the warm half.  Clear settled spell on the way from both GFS and GEM, here at T240:

gfs-0-240.png?12

gem-0-240.png?12

Jet stream still comfortably north at T300:

gfs-5-300.png?12

Atlantic held at bay, I think a warm sunny May is on the cards, haven't had one for quite a while if my memory is correct.

edit: add to that a really clear signal from the GEFS ensemble, mean here:

gens-21-1-240.png?12

Summer on the way!

Edited by Mike Poole
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22 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Now the warm half.  Clear settled spell on the way from both GFS and GEM, here at T240:

gfs-0-240.png?12

Sorry, the past two GFS runs represent a 'downgrade' with regards the BH weekend, markedly cooler and with the chance of being still slightly unsettled to begin with on the Saturday. Fine weather later is no good when everyone is back at work, though typical!

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Following a very unsettled unseasonably cold start to next week across much of the southern half of the uk, the GEFS 12z mean shows a gradual change to much more pleasant surface conditions as high pressure ridges in across the uk from later next week bringing a nice BH weekend for many..and continuing largely fine well into the following week!:)🌞

21_150_500mb.png

21_174_500mb.png

21_198_500mb.png

21_222_500mb.png

21_246_500mb.png

21_270_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.
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HIRLAM's  been hitting the hard stuff early today, it will either enhance or trash its burgeoning reputation with this offering for cumulative snow to lunchtime Monday:

hirlamuk-45-48-0.png?28-18

This is less than two days away, how on earth can two models HIRLAM and ARPEGE have the precipitation in totally different places at T45?  

arpegeuk-1-45-0.png?28-18

hirlamuk-1-45-0.png?28-18

In other news, switching gears to looking for summer, ECM looking good for summery weather at T168:

ECM1-168.GIF?28-0

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I quite fancy the GEM 12z @ Day 10..especially if I was in the south with temperatures into the low 20's celsius.:)

240_mslp500.png

240_uk2mtmp.png

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38 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

HIRLAM's  been hitting the hard stuff early today, it will either enhance or trash its burgeoning reputation with this offering for cumulative snow to lunchtime Monday:

hirlamuk-45-48-0.png?28-18

This is less than two days away, how on earth can two models HIRLAM and ARPEGE have the precipitation in totally different places at T45?  

arpegeuk-1-45-0.png?28-18

hirlamuk-1-45-0.png?28-18

In other news, switching gears to looking for summer, ECM looking good for summery weather at T168:

ECM1-168.GIF?28-0

ECM much closer to the HIRLAM for Monday than the ARGEPE, which has shifted quite a bit east today. ARGEPE usually slightly ahead at this range but ECM also verifies pretty well inside T48 so still in the balance :)

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ECM mean says it all.  T240 

EDM1-240.GIF?28-0

The jet stream is going north. Slow start to begin with but warm settled is the way this is going for me!  

Edited by Mike Poole
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37 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM mean says it all.  T240 

EDM1-240.GIF?28-0

The jet stream is going north. Slow start to begin with but warm settled is the way this is going for me!  

Yes tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks good for most of the uk both for the BH weekend (which would make a nice change!) and indeed further into the following week with a spell of high pressure and pleasantly warm conditions..fingers crossed.:) 

ECMAVGEU12_168_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_192_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_216_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png

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Latest ARGEPE has completely lost interest in a snow event for Monday and is so far east on the rain band that it may be limited to London and east.

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2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Latest ARGEPE has completely lost interest in a snow event for Monday and is so far east on the rain band that it may be limited to London and east.

It's pronounced arpege sorry had to point that out :) and its important to note that this is primarily a rain event and rain is what could cause problems snow is indicated by some models but that's mostly for hills and in heavier bursts on low ground but this is only one run from the arpege that has been changing how far east and west the rain gets so expect a few more shifts in the morning we also have to take other models into consideration the hirlam chart for example is showing rain much further west as does the DWD ICON for now anyway rain coming up from the south or southeast is notoriously difficult to predict accurately by the models and usually end up further west than anticipated I would say that the hirlam chart is probably more on the money for this rain and wet snow this is only my knowledge of it all and hope it helps. :)

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Latest Hirlam shows a risk of moderate / heavy snow for parts of the south early monday!:shok::crazy::cold:❄❄❄❄❄❄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄⛄

00_31_ukpreciptype.png

00_31_uktemp.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Can't have the poor old ICON left out of this discussion....  Here is the rain event for the south east as seen by ICON but this is spread over two runs - the current run has the rain getting a little further west....but no snow.

image.thumb.gif.61dac493932b02ff863ccc1e832d1edc.gif

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Good news from 00z ECM it shows our weather turning settled and increasingly warmer

ECMOPEU00_120_1.thumb.png.49892cf9dd7bf841e8d542aa1194201d.pngECMOPEU00_144_1.thumb.png.6fc681b7c589e0b5b702027ca5559163.pngECMOPEU00_168_1.thumb.png.f2555991250b17304456d17d2d8e8e66.pngECMOPEU00_192_1.thumb.png.f799256d945b19cd4edbae9ce1444449.pngECMOPEU00_216_1.thumb.png.8adea34ea0244e9e15d513c96a17edad.pngECMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.123b6259fb3ac03c1a8275a3158fab13.png

:) 

Edited by Summer Sun
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Winter is back with chance sleet wet snow in places Monday South East England.. So from summer weather back to winter weather..

323EF69F-5255-4B74-BB72-29A56800A74B.png

C1AD6B46-6AB5-44AC-A59C-CBF0C78BE6CC.png

Edited by abbie123
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