Model output discussion 14/04/18

[JBMWeatherForever]

It seems that the slightly cooler temperatures forecast for northern parts of the country in the next few days seem to be getting revised up with time, so that we may not see anything much of a cool down at all, before the next reload of heat at the end of the week. Next weekend and beyond is now looking very hot indeed. What a spell of weather we are having !  

[Mike Poole]

Extraordinary times, the good model runs continue to roll, here's ICON at T180 the end of the run, and GFS at T210:

The GFS output is particularly important because it has been the most reluctant of the models to acknowledge that it's going to stay hot!

[Frosty.]

As if next week isn't nice enough, the Gfs 12z shows it becoming even better from the end of the week onwards as high pressure builds in across the uk and intensifies..Beautiful isn't it..it goes on and on..and on

Edited June 30, 2018 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Just for fun, even by the end of the Gfs 12z it's hot and guess what, there's another azores ridge waiting in the wings!

[Leo97t]

Uppers still look disappointing but I guess I can't complain about this year so far! 

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Uppers still look disappointing but I guess I can't complain about this year so far! 

Disappointing uppers?..ok, well next week will continue very warm / hot (heatwave conditions) and the following week probably will too!

[ChezWeather]

12z GFS keeping the heat right out to the start of week 3 

Only to be taken with a pinch of salt of course, but no sign of any substantial breakdown yet! 

Edited June 30, 2018 by ChezWeather

[Mike Poole]

GEM 12z goes down the mega-anticyclone route seemingly favoured by most of the ECM ensembles this morning.  Nice to see!  Last few frames:

Not great placement on the day10 chart but that will doubtless change.

[Frosty.]

17 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM 12z goes down the mega-anticyclone route seemingly favoured by most of the ECM ensembles this morning.  Nice to see!  Last few frames:

Not great placement on the day10 chart but that will doubtless change.

Yes mike the GEM 12z ends briefly fresher / cooler apart from the hot SE corner but high pressure is waiting in the wings for a potential repeat performance and the Gem is hot all next week (across southern uk) and increasingly anticyclonic across most of the uk and into the start of week 2.

Edited June 30, 2018 by Frosty.

[Cheshire Freeze]

We don't need high uppers at the moment, given a slack flow and near maximum insolation. We won't really start to notice the effect of lower uppers under such circumstances until August when insolation begins to decrease markedly throughout the month.

[Frosty.]

Into the mid range and even further out the GEFS 12z mean looks superb, at least across england and wales, there's plenty of high pressure / strong ridging, even a link up from the azores to scandinavia for a time..there's really no end in sight to this predominantly beautiful spell that most are enjoying.

So..in summary, next week looks very warm / hot and sunny..more humid further south with a low risk of isolated thunderstorms at times..more great weather for most of, if not all of week 2 as well, at least across the southern half of the uk.

Edited June 30, 2018 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

Here's the ridge, I never doubted for a minute that ECM would waver and it isn't going to, here T168:

Awaits the last three frames with interest. 

Edited June 30, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Man With Beard]

The signal for high pressure next weekend has been so strong that it's turning into a bit of a procession on the ECM. Seven det runs for 7th July so far, exactly the same for outcome each time

[Mike Poole]

ECM rock solid at T216 and T240, hello heatwave!  

And then there's the GFS parallel. Awesome anticyclone from that run at T240:

 

[Leo97t]

All we need now is a stalling Atlantic trough to introduce a southerly 

[Frosty.]

Epic Ecm 12z..anticyclonic heaven

Edited June 30, 2018 by Frosty.

[Djdazzle]

Not sure how epic the 240 chart would be for heat with a NE drift.

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

All we need now is a stalling Atlantic trough to introduce a southerly 

We don't need a southerly! we already have a heatwave and it's going to continue all next week and the week after by the look of it..glorious high pressure and high temperatures on the Ecm 12z.

Edited June 30, 2018 by Frosty.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

1 minute ago, Leo97t said:

All we need now is a stalling Atlantic trough to introduce a southerly 

Really? In my book Southernlys are known to kill heatwaves off. You'll only get two or three days of blowtorch weather at max before a return to fresher atlantic and from there summer can go downhill.  Careful what you wish for.

[cheese]

8 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Really? In my book Southernlys are known to kill heatwaves off. You'll only get two or three days of blowtorch weather at max before a return to fresher atlantic and from there summer can go downhill.  Careful what you wish for.

Persistent hot southwesterlies like in July 2006 would be much better than what we're getting now imo, but then that's from my perspective living east of the Pennines. It's actually below 20C now and feels rather cool in that nagging easterly wind - definitely doesn't feel like we're in the midst of a heatwave.

Edited June 30, 2018 by cheese

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Really? In my book Southernlys are known to kill heatwaves off. You'll only get two or three days of blowtorch weather at max before a return to fresher atlantic and from there summer can go downhill.  Careful what you wish for.

yes, does normally, kind of setup if lasts long enough could see 40 degrees, but likely fresher/Atlantic weather next day

[mb018538]

Ecm is perfect at 168, good after. I’m nitpicking as the high pulls west a bit and yet another easterly sets in. If it could just park over the UK that would be ideal! Either way it’s staying very warm or hot depending on where the high ends up. Summer 2018 rolls on and on.

[Singularity]

I get the impression the brief burst of stronger trade winds may be behind the ridge looking to move NW a little between the weekend and the middle of the following week - but the rising AAM tendency should keep it on a SW-NE orientation (yep... more dry air imports on NE to E winds!) and then force an eastward return, the high eventually moving east of the UK. Unclear at this stage just how slow the drift east may be.

[Mike Poole]

And still they come.  The summer dream runs.  Here's the FIM9 at T204, massive anticyclone, huge high anyone?

And then there's the ECM mean at T240,  wow:

I think the heatwave is practically nailed on in the 10 day time frame, ECM ensembles even without the clusters is right behind this for the last 3 runs.   

 

Edited June 30, 2018 by Mike Poole

[Man With Beard]

19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

And still they come.  The summer dream runs.  Here's the FIM9 at T204, massive anticyclone, huge high anyone?

And then there's the ECM mean at T240,  wow:

I think the heatwave is practically nailed on in the 10 day time frame, ECM ensembles even without the clusters is right behind this for the last 3 runs.   

 

Ah, my old friend the 1030mb high. Verifies 9 times out of 10. Should mean heatwave carries on but, being slightly west, without ever reaching the stupid heat category.