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Model output discussion 14/04/18

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19 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Might be that this breakdown never really gains much traction, just a slight re-adjustment before high pressure starts to rebuild into July. We will see, but the clusters/anomalies & met update seem to favour this too.

gefsens850london0.png

6z op was a wet outlier with regards to the Biscay low, so something more akin tot eh UKMO/ECM solution should be favoured here.

My mate's a farmer in near York and getting very worried for his crops. He's desperate for rain. An interlude of a few days wet stuff would please everyone I reckon, as long as the Azores keeps nosing in... Looks like that pattern is the form horse, for now.....

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Just taken a look at gfs mean for the next week and its fantastic!!looks more like ukmo and ecm and keeps the hot weather going well into next week!!

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So glad to see that the GFS has come round to joining the ECM/UKMO with more warmth and sunshine throughout next week 

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Gfs  has been  laughable recently really!!!looks like euros win and heatwave continues well into next week!!the charts look amazing for the weekend and into next week!!unbelievable how much things have changed over the past few days with the iberian low!!its virtually non existent now!!may the scorcher continue😎

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Stonking UKMO with temps no doubt into the 90s.

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UKMO 12z is a stunner - staying hot well into next week! Breakdown? What breakdown!

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10 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs  has been  laughable recently really!!!looks like euros win and heatwave continues well into next week!!the charts look amazing for the weekend and into next week!!unbelievable how much things have changed over the past few days with the iberian low!!its virtually non existent now!!may the scorcher continue😎

UKMO 12z is absolutely glorious- temps late 20s surely into next week.

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Would you Adam and Eve it!  Yes, I would actually. GFS totally capitulates bringing the ridge over the low and looks to continue the fantastic summer weather.  Here T120 (key time) and T144.   

image.thumb.jpg.1aab4f8618ae015930c65022074b23e5.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.277a32af201ace436b503af9d9fd6967.jpg

 

Edited by Mike Poole
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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Would you Adam and Eve it!  Yes, I would actually. GFS totally capitulates bringing then ridge over the low and looks to continue the fantastic summer weather.  Here T120 (key time) and T144.   

image.thumb.jpg.1aab4f8618ae015930c65022074b23e5.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.277a32af201ace436b503af9d9fd6967.jpg

 

Well last week I was thinking there was an outside chance of 10 successive days with a max of 30C or more - it's looking possible now.

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UKMO chart at T144 unreal, GEM at same time has ditched it's attempt to curtail the heatwave.  What's not to like? 😎☀️

image.thumb.jpg.e07e3a0a1c379858f31b1ba8b1054434.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.c20d8b040a6f501642a1f5289266f354.jpg

Uncertainty at this timescale looks resolved now, what further ahead on these runs?

Edit ICON also on board:

image.thumb.jpg.d0f11b23a27287f0e4152c51d7379a48.jpg

Exceptional 12s so far tonight.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Still in the high 20s with no more than isolated showers on Thursday for E&W.

This run (GFS 12z) has also seen a big adjustment to the Arctic profile, with a single trough in place, centred well north of the UK, rather than two troughs separated by weak high pressure trying to send the Atlantic trough more south where it could give us some bother.

Fascinating to see this consolidation into one trough being corrected toward time and time again during the past couple of months. I'm starting to suspect that the unusually low sea ice on the Atlantic and Siberian sides of the Arctic basin are an at least partial contributor to that.

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Is this a first for UK?

A strongly supported breakdown that just fades away. It’s usually the other way round - a forecast heatwave fading away.

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Just to put the final nail in the coffin of this supposed unsettled breakthrough at or shortly after the weekend, the GEFS mean at T150 solid for continuation of high pressure dominated weather for the majority of the UK.  

image.thumb.jpg.3347d3d8e0361c0e5698a6bf0c17e1a8.jpg

still looking very promising at T312 actually:

image.thumb.jpg.8c1b63a986be8017917c0ce9d275f6bd.jpg

Go the UK hot streak! ☀️

Edited by Mike Poole
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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Just to put the final nail in the coffin of this supposed unsettled breakthrough at or shortly after the weekend, the GEFS mean at T144 solid for continuation on high pressure dominated weather for the majority of the UK.  

image.thumb.jpg.3347d3d8e0361c0e5698a6bf0c17e1a8.jpg

still,looking very promising at T324 actually:

image.thumb.jpg.8c1b63a986be8017917c0ce9d275f6bd.jpg

Perhaps we ought to pay more attention to what the 'Teleconnectionists' are saying, rather than arguing the toss over what this-or-that model is predicting for T+98456? Just a thought!☀️

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8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Perhaps we ought to pay more attention to what the 'Teleconnectionists' are saying, rather than arguing the toss over what this-or-that model is predicting for T+98456? Just a thought!☀️

Yes, I'm in total agreement.  Even more so when the guidance from the long range model output is giving a significant probability of exactly what the teleconnections are suggesting. 

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Ecm similar to ukmo at 96 hours so far!!looking good folks!!iberrian low way west of portugal!!

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No breakdown anymore! (For now anyway)

Arpege temps for Sunday. 33c in south. Could this be something extra special....trying not to get ahead of myself but the charts are looking wonderful again tonight.

1D42F37F-A75A-4166-BEDC-94408E31D737.png

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Well EC suggests little in the way of rainfall for the next 7 days with High pressure generally in charge- thats upto 144 hrs .

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4 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

No breakdown anymore! (For now anyway)

Arpege temps for Sunday. 33c in south. Could this be something extra special....trying not to get ahead of myself but the charts are looking wonderful again tonight.

1D42F37F-A75A-4166-BEDC-94408E31D737.png

That really is stiflingly hot- EC looks very warm out to next tuesday!

I think i spot a 13degress in NE Scotland though, jumpers there and jumpers for goalposts for the rest of us!

Edited by northwestsnow
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Well i got to go out so last one for me tonight, EC now out o 168 and the UK remains warm/very warm.

Also of note is the intense heat buliding across North Africa- absolutely insane temps in morocco / Tunisia etc over the next few days..

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Fantastic ecm all the way up to 168 hours!!hot and sunny with temps mid to high twenties till wednesday at least!!!

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ECM with the consensus at T120, the ridge beats the low.  Good.  

image.thumb.jpg.40fc9b2b0e0351b26dbd2d017b10a2da.jpg

by T168 there's a vast area with between 1015 and 1020 which includes the UK

image.thumb.jpg.b3da33f98e561312ede684ad568713e1.jpg

slack pressure with hot air now in place. Maybe showery in places but certainly no breakdown. 

 

Edited by Mike Poole
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