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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards


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Taken by a pal Hunstanton 

glorious morning across Esher Common !! autumn is well and truly in full swing ..

With the official stats now out, here's the Met Office chart comparing Summer 2018 with other similar years. For much of our Region 2018 was the hottest, but with some variations such as Norfolk and K

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7 hours ago, Surrey said:

Go to bed Arepge yo drunk.. 

overview_096.thumb.jpg.62f5b0afeaab726ea32b7f65845237e5.jpg

overview_096.jpg

even  the bbc are saying  some places  might see some snow on high parts!!

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even if it doesn't snow, that still means it's gonna be a chilly one. Bug kay off.

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The last two weeks have had some amazing weather, had two thunderstorms too! One of which gave us some incredible clouds, much better then any I've ever seen in summer here before, looked like something straight out of America!

31381299_10156466948426518_1699055375500743634_n.jpg

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7 minutes ago, Delka said:

The last two weeks have had some amazing weather, had two thunderstorms too! One of which gave us some incredible clouds, much better then any I've ever seen in summer here before, looked like something straight out of America!

31381299_10156466948426518_1699055375500743634_n.jpg

Yep there was a supercell that tracked across Norfolk and into the North sea, nice picture.

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2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Yep there was a supercell that tracked across Norfolk and into the North sea, nice picture.

Oh wow, it was certainly something, worth getting a pummelling of hail and rain because the cloudscapes and atmosphere was just something else..

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Flash flooding major issue this afternoon no idea why it's not been hinted at, the current band of rain pepping itself up over south London is going to move very slowly north and then stall as it pushes out east. Torrential rain here now... 

Will do a full right up on Sunday maybe tomorrow morning when I got better info but its been a very long time I have ever seen something like Sunday in April/may although it can and does happen.. 

Settling snow is a Deffo no, but seeing something fall is a yes on higher ground. 

Flooding? Well that's certainly the biggest risk along with some serious gales 

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22 hours ago, The East has Ceased said:

I already sold my sledge on ebay :sorry:

Protip, buy a boat......

So today was garbage and we are set for a few more days of garbage. The set on show is pretty much the worst case scenario during the warmer parts of the year. Even in mid summer charts lile this year could give temperatures is single figures.... it is that bad and we really don't need the rain.

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23 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

The only way the south will see snow at this time of year will be if someone with a dirty scalp sits on your roof and scratches their head :rofl:

 

10045127.jpg.png

Two years ago think it was today we had snow showers even in London, the gates are not fully slammed shut yet although almost the cut off point till late October at earliest..

Edited by Daniel*
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1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

Two years ago think it was today we had snow showers even in London, the gates are not fully slammed shut yet although almost the cut off point till late October at earliest..

It's snowed in Surrey in May before - and in Peterborough on a May 19th - in daylight hours.  On both occasions the culprit was a snow shower, not a band of snow. 

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Morning gang,

Some changes over night with regards to Sunday night/ Mondays low

Snow threat really is decreasing run by run as Steve posted above it will/looks only like the very highst of ground will see any falling white stuff..

First thing to note is GFS has backed away from a deeper area of low pressure but brings it further west

MOST high res models have gone further EAST

 

Netweather GFS Image

As of midnight Monday the area of low pressure has deepend.. BUT not to what was previously modeled.. Wednesday/Thursday looked like 60-70mph on coasts now 40-50mph seems more reasonable.. 

The bigger question mark remains on how far West the PPN will get .. AND if there will be any white stuff falling. Although as I posted above its looking a lot less likely..

ARPEGE going with the more eastern biased..

overview_054.jpg?2018042800 overview_057.jpg?2018042800overview_060.jpg?2018042800overview_063.jpg?2018042800overview_066.jpg?2018042800

GFS on the other hand going with a very Western biased theme.. The far south east might wonder what all the fuss was about if this plays out, this is due to the placement of the center of the low.. 

overview_048.jpg?2018042800overview_054.jpg?2018042800overview_060.jpg?2018042800overview_066.jpg?2018042800overview_072.jpg?2018042800

HIRLAM goes EAST and also a lot earlier but brings some monsoon conditions 

overview_042.jpg?2018042800overview_045.jpg?2018042800overview_048.jpg?2018042800

AND finally the ICON goes so far EAST there is nothing to worry about.. BUT it is sticking out like a sore thumb on this one.. IF the other models start to go towards this idea today then maybe we can begin to see a trend..

overview_054.jpg?2018042800overview_057.jpg?2018042800overview_060.jpg?2018042800overview_063.jpg?2018042800overview_066.jpg?2018042800

So expected totals from each model.. I have thrown in the NMM on this too..all up to 6PM Monday 

NMM 

nmmuk-25-64-0.png?28-08

ARPEGE

accprecip_066.jpg?2018042800

GFS

accprecip_066.jpg?2018042800

HIRLAM

accprecip_048.jpg?2018042800

ICON

accprecip_066.jpg?2018042800

 

Now you can see how many solutions there are! A fluid situation with the potential for some flooding to property IF worst case happens which would be the ARPEGE/GFS idea

 

Edited by Surrey
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Thanks for going to the trouble of posting that synopsis for us Luke, always nice to have some idea whats going on.

It's a grey miserable day in Bedford temp 9C with little wind.

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Another awful day with plenty of rain, despite forecasts for the rain to ease off if anything it has turned heavier again. Just 7c today, to think we were in the high twenties just over a week ago.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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On 4/26/2018 at 14:19, Neilsouth said:

I'm going Metal Detecting on Friday Morning in Kent, does anyone have a predicted radar for tomorrow, what time is it supposed to arrive?

did you detect any metal:unknw:

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