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Captain Shortwave

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards

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1 minute ago, Dami said:

Been a while since I saw a fox - they used to come off the downs where I grew up.

We get a few purely urban foxes, I have a Lurcher so we don't see them often, only whilst she's still asleep. Seen cubs the last two years but only briefly! Thankfully have seen three hedgehogs this year and they are supposedly I'm decline.. Perhaps they've turned it around.

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19 minutes ago, Ellozee said:

We get a few purely urban foxes, I have a Lurcher so we don't see them often, only whilst she's still asleep. Seen cubs the last two years but only briefly! Thankfully have seen three hedgehogs this year and they are supposedly I'm decline.. Perhaps they've turned it around.

yep had hedgehogs at home which we fed. Then one year it went under a bush and we never saw it again :(

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2 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

That’s bad luck! Hope that clears up, sharpish. I’m heading to Spain on Saturday for 5 days, a couple of hours up the coast from you, near Murcia. Warm here in London but quite a lot of cloud the last couple of days. Currently 27C with light winds.

Seemed to clear up after an hour today and then it was lovely .

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Just saw the BBC weather, they have confirmed 33c and over next Tuesday onwards with temps at 23c by night👙

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Well time for a weekend forecast;

For the umpteenth weekend in the row, mostly dry, plenty of sunshine (especially on Sunday). Maybe the chance of a shower on Saturday.

Temperatures

Saturday                                                              Sunday

arpegeuk-31-54-0.png?19-18     arpegeuk-31-78-0.png?19-18

25-28C                                                              27-30C

Another hot one, especially on Sunday, we will see an increasingly warm and in this case humid tropical maritime airmass move over the UK so nights will become uncomfortable.

Just a heads up for Monday

arpegeuk-31-102-0.png?19-18

With 850s of up to 14C predicted from the ECM given the current hard baked ground, then these temperatures are not an unrealistic prediction so potentially the hottest day of the year on Monday. Temperatures will probably drop a little towards the middle of the week as a front tries to push south east towards us. A possibility of a plume event towards the end of next week but that is a long way off.

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Some idiotic kids just set a field next our house on fire and ran away leaving us to put it out, although we caught up to them and gave them a good lesson.

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On the other side of the village some kids have been setting fire to the fields too, right by the kiddies play area. Their parents must be so proud.

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17 minutes ago, Dbarb said:

Some idiotic kids just set a field next our house on fire and ran away leaving us to put it out, although we caught up to them and gave them a good lesson.

Did you kick them hard in the shins?

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1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Did you kick them hard in the shins?

Me and my brother verbally confronted one as he was the slowest of the bunch, the thing is they ran and left it burning which if we hadn't spotted could of got out of control.

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2 hours ago, Dbarb said:

Some idiotic kids just set a field next our house on fire and ran away leaving us to put it out, although we caught up to them and gave them a good lesson.

They need tying to a stake and dousing in diesel - might put them off doing it. 

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4 hours ago, Ellozee said:

We get a few purely urban foxes, I have a Lurcher so we don't see them often, only whilst she's still asleep. Seen cubs the last two years but only briefly! Thankfully have seen three hedgehogs this year and they are supposedly I'm decline.. Perhaps they've turned it around.

We see foxes most evenings at present when walking our little french bulldog who can't go out during the day in the heat. Not sure if they are out and about more or if we are out at a different time. Looking at your pic, I think we are regularly seeing a young one; the local artificial river that runs through the back of some of the houses is barely visible it is so low, so the animals must be getting thirsty.

Most days recently have given us more cloud cover than sun but the temperature still seems to be getting very high. Although I love the sun, it's been a long time now, and sleeping is very difficult when it is so hot. We now have fans and air purifiers all over the house to keep heat and hayfever at bay. Not keen on the summary from @Captain Shortwave of next week's high temperatures (not that he is responsible for them of course....) Fingers crossed for a storm tomorrow ⛈️

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rain on the radar!!!  lets hope!!!!!!!!!!!!

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I am hoping for some lovely cloud porn today so i can at least be reminded what a rain cloud looks like. Other than that since no lovely upgrade, I shall mainly be wearing a dress and thong sandals. Not expecting anything, cos you know beddy.

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Wow, yes, a blob of blue heading north in our direction. Lots of Ac on this side of the Essex/Suffolk border. Hopefully that blob will erupt once the sun has got to work on it. 

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Different feel this morning, the first time in weeks the sky looks ominous. 

Those so desperate to see rain may get their wish today. 

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Todays storms look even more hit and miss than they did yesterday.. The EURO4 has nearly dropped them completely..

The trigger factor today will be convergence zones and they are in quite abundance..

Netweather NMM Image Netweather NMM ImageNetweather NMM Image

 

BUT the PPN looks very patchy..

AROME

preciprate_012.jpg?2018072000preciprate_013.jpg?2018072000preciprate_014.jpg?2018072000

 

EURO4..

Precipitation EURO4 Fr 20.07.2018 15 GMTPrecipitation EURO4 Fr 20.07.2018 18 GMTPrecipitation EURO4 Fr 20.07.2018 21 GMTPrecipitation EURO4 Sa 21.07.2018 00 GMT

 

 

 

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Who's excited for the possible thunderstorms today? I certainly am, because I'm in the sweet spot!

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Quite misty here first thing, but sun wins already. Dont expect we will see any rain today. Not a single storm in these parts this year, boring sun and heat is no fun without the storms to break it up.

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13 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Todays storms look even more hit and miss than they did yesterday.. The EURO4 has nearly dropped them completely..

The trigger factor today will be convergence zones and they are in quite abundance.

Typical hit and miss Storms/Showers, Great if you see one, despair if the rain passes you by. I got the feeling last night watching the French weatherfront moving north that it just wasn't going to make it far enough to affect East Kent. Seeing it now this morning I think we'll be lucky to see even a slight drizzle off it, and I believe the cloud cover will reduce our chances here of seeing homegrown showers. Not a complaint, we've had the best winter in years, followed by the best (hottest, most consistent) summer in decades (and in my lifetime) but I would love some rain and the thought of a thunderstorm is a real treat RN.

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4 minutes ago, Ellozee said:

Typical hit and miss Storms/Showers, Great if you see one, despair if the rain passes you by. I got the feeling last night watching the French weatherfront moving north that it just wasn't going to make it far enough to affect East Kent. Seeing it now this morning I think we'll be lucky to see even a slight drizzle off it, and I believe the cloud cover will reduce our chances here of seeing homegrown showers. Not a complaint, we've had the best winter in years, followed by the best (hottest, most consistent) summer in decades (and in my lifetime) but I would love some rain and the thought of a thunderstorm is a real treat RN.

I think you're right. Even the light precipitation moving towards us is vanishing from the radar as it approaches the South Kent coast. If it doesn't rain in Ashford today that will make it 54 days without rain (the big t-storm that flooded everything just after 11pm on Sat May 26). This is true at least for this side of town as there was quite a beefy shower on the other side of town a few weeks ago for about 5 minutes lol.

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I am so excited today as there is a yellow warning covering Thurrock for a thunderstorm and I hope there will be plenty of lightning and rain.

Edited by Katrine Basso
Incomplete sentence

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I wouldn't get your hopes up today. Very hit and miss. I reckon 20% chance at best.

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Yep, just looked at some other high res models.. I really would not get excited over it.. They are so far a few between.. URGH! Yesterdays EURO4 was looking so promising.. 

Anything that does go will be late afternoon I reckon..

Thrown the NMM out as usual with its handle on the stuff in the channel as being VERY poor..

Net weather in house model says no now

Arpege looks messy and poor for storms 

 

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21 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Yep, just looked at some other high res models.. I really would not get excited over it.. They are so far a few between.. URGH! Yesterdays EURO4 was looking so promising.. 

Anything that does go will be late afternoon I reckon..

Thrown the NMM out as usual with its handle on the stuff in the channel as being VERY poor..

Net weather in house model says no now

Arpege looks messy and poor for storms 

 

And of course this unforecasted cloud will limit heating and convection further.

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