Will this summer be similar to the poor ones of the 1980s?

[Nick L]

No wonder some don't think we get much sun, too busy obsessing over the sunshine stats

[B87]

Anyway, I've heard that some strong analogues for this coming summer are 1976, 2006, 2014.

That means we can probably look forward to a sunny and warm June/July, and then another poor August.

[weatherguru14]

Speaking of seeing the sun.... What confuses me with the BBC (and a lot does) when its a chilly wind. they say if you can stay out of the wind you will feel the effect of the Sun.. Now how can you go out into the sun and  avoid the wind at the same time?.. physically impossible

[Frost HoIIow]

29 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

Speaking of seeing the sun.... What confuses me with the BBC (and a lot does) when its a chilly wind. they say if you can stay out of the wind you will feel the effect of the Sun.. Now how can you go out into the sun and  avoid the wind at the same time?.. physically impossible

By sitting in a 'sheltered' place? I.e sitting in a south facing garden yet wind comes in from the north but the house blocks most of the wind. Regardless of temps from a cool northerly you would still get burnt as the sun is now strong.

[weatherguru14]

haaa so your hiding behind an house ok

[Roger J Smith]

My answer to the topic question is no, it will be a good summer more similar to the good ones of the 1990s than the poor ones of any decade. 

I don't buy into the theory that you can "waste" good summer synoptics early. The correlation is more or less random between unusual spring warmth and summer outcomes. When you look at years that had unusual warmth before mid-May, you find quite a mix of poor summers, average summers and good summers. In this particular case, I think the indications are positive for a good summer with temperatures about a degree above even the warmed up recent normals. 

Will post a summer outlook soon in the long-range forecast thread, but I have done the work on it and just fine tuning the results. 

[cheeky_monkey]

14 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

My answer to the topic question is no, it will be a good summer more similar to the good ones of the 1990s than the poor ones of any decade. 

I don't buy into the theory that you can "waste" good summer synoptics early. The correlation is more or less random between unusual spring warmth and summer outcomes. When you look at years that had unusual warmth before mid-May, you find quite a mix of poor summers, average summers and good summers. In this particular case, I think the indications are positive for a good summer with temperatures about a degree above even the warmed up recent normals. 

Will post a summer outlook soon in the long-range forecast thread, but I have done the work on it and just fine tuning the results. 

what about summer prospects for Western Canada...BC and Alberta? a repeat of last year's hot dry summer or no?

[cheese]

On 08/05/2018 at 23:27, B87 said:

Anyway, I've heard that some strong analogues for this coming summer are 1976, 2006, 2014.

That means we can probably look forward to a sunny and warm June/July, and then another poor August.

Unless it's 1976, then all three will be very warm and sunny. Doesn't happen often though.

[B87]

7 hours ago, cheese said:

Unless it's 1976, then all three will be very warm and sunny. Doesn't happen often though.

The last time summer had every month warmer and sunnier than average was 2003. I think before that it was 1989 (which holds the record for the most 25c+ days here, beating even 1976).

August 2006 was better than August 2014, but both were cool and cloudy.

[Sunny76]

46 minutes ago, B87 said:

The last time summer had every month warmer and sunnier than average was 2003. I think before that it was 1989 (which holds the record for the most 25c+ days here, beating even 1976).

August 2006 was better than August 2014, but both were cool and cloudy.

Strange, how both those years were World Cup years, with a cool August. 2010, another World Cup year, also had a cool August. 

I think this summer might buck the trend, with a warm June, and a cooler July followed by a sunny and warm August. Hopefully similar to 1981, with thunderstorms.

[Snowyowl9]

Early summer 1980/81 or 1982 which gave the most thunderstorms period on record,excluding august 2004 but that was late summer.

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

 

I think this summer might buck the trend, with a warm June, and a cooler July followed by a sunny and warm August. Hopefully similar to 1981, with thunderstorms.

Which I think we have to go back to 2009 to find the last instance of. Good June, shoddy July and decent August (away from the northwest).

[Sunny76]

4 hours ago, MP-R said:

Which I think we have to go back to 2009 to find the last instance of. Good June, shoddy July and decent August (away from the northwest).

Yes, and July was very poor that year. But, I also remember a couple of thundery periods, one taking place on a Saturday afternoon if memory serves me well. August wasn’t too bad, but it was cloudy at times, and June was the best month of the whole summer. Which is ok with me, because we benefit from the longest days, but it’s just a shame that summer seems to peak in June sometimes and falls apart for the school holidays. 

2009 was also the last time February had an extensive cold snowy period, and wasn’t it the first winter to buck the trend of mild ones. Also 2009 could be classed as the best summer from that 2007-12, which was mostly dominated by poor summers. 

2010 wasn’t too bad in retrospect, but the cool August let it down. 

[Sunny76]

5 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Early summer 1980/81 or 1982 which gave the most thunderstorms period on record,excluding august 2004 but that was late summer.

80-82 seems to be the period with the most thundery activity. 

I think 2018 could be the year we see the return of more frequent thundery activity, going by how the weather has been so far this year. After the cold winter, and early part of spring, and steadily rising temperatures since late April(in between the colder days), the storms will start appearing. I would love a June 1980 or 82 for the thunderstorms, but minus all the crap weather that followed those events. 82 was hot at times though.

[B87]

6 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Strange, how both those years were World Cup years, with a cool August. 2010, another World Cup year, also had a cool August. 

I think this summer might buck the trend, with a warm June, and a cooler July followed by a sunny and warm August. Hopefully similar to 1981, with thunderstorms.

Other World Cup years in London:

2002: cool June/July, average August

1998: cool June/July, average August

1994: average June, hot July, average August

1990: cool June, warm July, hot August

1986: warm June, cool July, cold August

1982: average June, cool July/August

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

The title of this thread should be renamed "Old skool summertime banter" 

[hillbilly]

7 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Strange, how both those years were World Cup years, with a cool August. 2010, another World Cup year, also had a cool August. 

I think this summer might buck the trend, with a warm June, and a cooler July followed by a sunny and warm August. Hopefully similar to 1981, with thunderstorms.

What about 1995?The best summer I remember.

[B87]

5 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

What about 1995?The best summer I remember.

1995 was a very good summer but started poorly; temperatures were below average every day until 16th June.

Jun: 20.7c/10.8c, 11.1mm, 187.7 hrs

Jul: 26.3c/15.2c, 20.3mm, 247.1 hrs

Aug: 27.0c/15.6c, 0.3mm, 295.3 hrs

August was the hottest, driest and sunniest on record here (though had 0.3mm of dew accumulation, no rain fell the entire month).

[Sunny76]

June 1995, people were wondering if we would get a summer, I remember. It was cold during most of May, after the hot start to the month, then we had to wait until mid June until the real heat arrived, and from that point on we had weeks of warm to hot sunny weather. Just the odd one or two days of rain in between. That summer hasn’t been bettered since. 

[weatherguru14]

2003 and 2006 were excellent summers.. 2006  was fantastic apart  from August  but September made up for it. 2013 was acceptable if you like summer  weather that is.

[Frost HoIIow]

21 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

June 1995, people were wondering if we would get a summer, I remember. It was cold during most of May, after the hot start to the month, then we had to wait until mid June until the real heat arrived, and from that point on we had weeks of warm to hot sunny weather. Just the odd one or two days of rain in between. That summer hasn’t been bettered since. 

Yeah I still remember early and mid June being very poor for warmth. It was noticeably cool I bet many people were wondering if it was going to be a poor Summer. Then a huge change at the end of the month and the rest is history. I haven't seen the grass around here as yellow and the ground as arid and cracked since the Summer of 95. Locally that Summer around here was probably hotter and drier then 76.

Edited May 10, 2018 by Frost HoIIow

[Evening thunder]

On 08/05/2018 at 23:07, B87 said:

Here's the link to another paper that studied CS vs electronic sensors in Krakow. It found that the electronic 120Wm2 sensor recorded approx 10.4% higher values over the course of the year, versus the CS recorder. Krakow averages less than 1500 hours of sunshine per year in the 81-10 averages, so it is cloudier than pretty much all of southern England, but comparable to the Midlands.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-014-1125-z

A poster on another forum (based in NZ) reports similar increases in sun hours as stations replace CS recorders with electronic sensors. I know that the below isn't a journal paper (I couldn't find a NZ based one), but it shows that there is definitely a discrepancy in favour of electronic sensors over CS.

http://nelsonweekly.co.nz/2017/01/sun-crown-shady/

 

There is an old book online in pdf form somewhere, titled 'The Climate of London'. Granted, it is fairly out of date now as it studied climate in the 50s and 60s, but I recall it saying that the average burn threshold of the CS recorder in Kew Gardens was 139.5 W/m2. Kew averages 1653 hours sun, but I don't have access to any annual data from that station, so can't be compared to Heathrow (avg 1633 hrs, now using KZ). I have noticed on totally cloudless days in summer, that Heathrow sometimes struggles to get above 11-12 hours of sun in a 15-16 hour day. I could understand if it lost 1-1.5 hours due to low sun in the early/late hours, but to lose 4 hours with 0/8 skies and no horizon obstructions is strange to say the least.

Thanks. It is a bit odd how other studies have not found the same results as in the UK (does the CSD1 sensor have different characteristics to the CSD3? Can the Met Office change the 'threshold' etc of the sensors in any way? or maybe all the hot air from jet engines causes more convective cloud build up  )
Your last bit does sounds strange. It appeared something's up, the equipment change raises suspicions further for me and then that UK article seemed to back it up. Would be good to see nearby records with the same instrument but I'm not sure if they're available and don't really have time to look atm.


Anyway,  with regards to previous summers, I was looking at data for Exeter Airport and ironically in 1976 a warm up around the 19th April, a min of -1C on the 1st May, and then a warm up to 23C here around the 7th May matches this year very closely indeed. Probably just coincidence though.
 

[Sunny76]

11 hours ago, weatherguru14 said:

2003 and 2006 were excellent summers.. 2006  was fantastic apart  from August  but September made up for it. 2013 was acceptable if you like summer  weather that is.

All those summers were great, and I would gladly welcome any of those. 2013 was probably my favourite out of the 3, because the August was better, and it was the best August since 03.

 

1995 was one of those rare occasions, when the sun just seemed to shine for days and weeks on end. I just remember London being very sunny from mid June until about mid August, apart from a couple of dull days. And this followed a decent summer in 1994, which had a hot July. Most people forget 1994 though. 

[B87]

2003 was a better summer than 2006 or 2013.

In 2003, Jun-Aug were all sunny and warm. 2006 had a poor August and 2013 had a poor June.

[cheeky_monkey]

i dont believe Aug 2006 was a poor month...yes it was cloudy, dry and relatively cool..but coming after a record breaking July it was a blessed relief..so in that respect it was just what the doctor ordered.