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Hi, I'm a new poster on Netweather but I've posted on other weather forums before like Boards.ie or UKWeatherworld. On the latter, I was quite unpopular due to me being extremely unprofessional at the time - that was three years ago now however and I'll admit I was very unprofessional, I did not know much bar the very basics. I've learned a lot since then though still very much on a learning curve, especially in regards to things like solar activity and the MJO. This Winter was my first season I've been interacting with the weather community on Twitter and what an epic first season it was with so much bizarre events going on from the beast to the east to Storm Emma to the Wales earthquake to me having snow from a westerly to the December 10th slider low. 

To tell you who I am, I am Seán Bruen, an amateur weather enthusiast whom has a huge obsession in weather history, ENSO, solar activity and the stratosphere. I have been interested in the weather since I was 8 or 9 and my interest in it rose particularly during the Winter of 2009-10 with unusually cold and snowy conditions I had not seen in my life up to that point. I grew my big love for snow and cold Winters after that and was amazed by early Winter 2010/11. I am from Dublin, Ireland.  

Somebody on Twitter said I should share my tables I made specially for long range forecasting Winter and so I registered here to share them. I did not know where to post them so I made this new thread. I apologise if the thread is clogging up the forum and I did not mean any harm. These tables show the NAO, AO, average sunspot number, OPI (ignore that laugh out loud), NAO in May before the Winter, UK mean temperature + anomaly from 1981-2010 average, CET + anomaly from 1981-2010 average, months of SSW occurrence, QBO, ENSO + its strength and the PDO.

If there is a blank, it means the data is unavailable. The OPI for 2015 to 2017 are estimates by myself but after what happened in 2014-15, I think you all want to ignore it. These tables are far from completed and always open to edits, they're just used as a guide to help me in long range forecasting the Winter season so I can make easy reanalysis charts or analogues. 

If you'd like any sources of the data I got the information in my table from, let me know and I'll post them. 

Thanks for reading.

table1(3.0).PNG

table2 (3.0).PNG

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Posted (edited)

Looks very interesting, could I ask what the column S SN measures (looks solar). ... in fact I think you say that's what it is, but the numbers are higher than the annual index numbers I have been using, so whose measurement, and are they averages for July to June or a narrower winter-defined period?

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Looks very interesting, could I ask what the column S SN measures (looks solar). ... in fact I think you say that's what it is, but the numbers are higher than the annual index numbers I have been using, so whose measurement, and are they averages for July to June or a narrower winter-defined period?

Hi Roger, firstly, are you M.T. Cranium of Boards.ie may I ask?

Secondly, AVG SSN is the average sunspot number of that Winter season. The figure is a tri-monthly average for the Winter calculated by monthly sunspot numbers data on SILSO: http://www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles

The colour scheme of the AVG SSN column was helped by some other weather enthusiasts. I was unsure of what figure to be considered average solar activity so I can say whether it's weak or strong. We ended up deciding on a sunspot number of 75, although that's always open up to differing opinions and corrections.

If you or others have any ideas on improving the tables - or any methodology to add to it, don't be afraid to tell me here. 

Edited by BruenSryan

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Welcome Sean,i hope you bring something interesting to the forums but we are not all amateur forcasters with a degree in meteorology but that does not make us any less interested in weather than those who do and if you are brave enough to post any forcast beyond 2 weeks then you must prepare yourself for criticism !

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Posted (edited)

Thanks, so just the Dec-Jan-Feb averages of sunspot numbers then? 

As to identity questions, I don't mind saying who I am but the whole point of anonymous internet handles is that somebody prefers not to use their "meat world" name.

I have held the names Peter O'Donnell (at birth) and Roger (J) Smith (from shortly after that) and M.T. Cranium is certainly a good descriptor of my usual persona.

But I can tell you from bad experiences that giving out your actual name on the internet can come back to bite you, and that's why 99% of the people on chat forums of all kinds adopt an anonymous name. As you probably knew. But we shouldn't inquire into identities of anyone after this one time, okay? 

Why does it come back to bite you? Because lawyers. 

Why did I not start out here with an assumed name. Because stupid. 

Why the middle initial? Because a Roger Smith (not me) had already joined. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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48 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

Welcome Sean,i hope you bring something interesting to the forums but we are not all amateur forcasters with a degree in meteorology but that does not make us any less interested in weather than those who do and if you are brave enough to post any forcast beyond 2 weeks hours then you must prepare yourself for criticism !

Fixed Your Post. :)

 

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9 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Thanks, so just the Dec-Jan-Feb averages of sunspot numbers then? 

As to identity questions, I don't mind saying who I am but the whole point of anonymous internet handles is that somebody prefers not to use their "meat world" name.

I have held the names Peter O'Donnell (at birth) and Roger (J) Smith (from shortly after that) and M.T. Cranium is certainly a good descriptor of my usual persona.

But I can tell you from bad experiences that giving out your actual name on the internet can come back to bite you, and that's why 99% of the people on chat forums of all kinds adopt an anonymous name. As you probably knew. But we shouldn't inquire into identities of anyone after this one time, okay? 

Why does it come back to bite you? Because lawyers. 

Why did I not start out here with an assumed name. Because stupid. 

Why the middle initial? Because a Roger Smith (not me) had already joined. 

Nah nah, I only asked that because you seemed very familiar.

Yes, only the meteorological Winter months. That is unless you would like me to do something else for them and I’ll recalculate.

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Welcome BruenSryan. Fortunately both professional and unprofessional people alike are welcome here so you're in the right place!

I also love delving into weather history (the data, not the member on this forum :D) so this is a very interesting thread!

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Posted (edited)

Since you guys seem to enjoy my Winter methodology tables, I thought I'd share other tables of mine too. 

Here's my table containing previous SSW events since 1962-63 excluding February 2018's two SSW events. The other exception being the April 1982 SSW event which I discounted because it was not worth including as a result of it not having much of an effect on us and the fact that I would have to include four separate columns just for that one event. I decided to not include the May mean temperatures either because there are very few March SSW events and well, they don't seem to have much impact on the month like May is a very easterly month regardless of SSW taking place. 

The AO and NAO columns are averages for three monthly periods following SSW events. For example, if a SSW occurred in February, the AO/NAO index is averaged for that February, March and April's values into one figure. Or another example, if a SSW occurred in November, the AO/NAO index is averaged for that November, December and January - I had one exception where I included February in this equation (marked with a * on the table); Winter 1968-69. I included February 1969 because it had a very negative AO and NAO index just like the two preceding Winter months, it was also a very cold month. Some seasons, two SSW events occur and where they have done so, I've given two AO/NAO figures on the table.

The IMT** and CET columns are of the mean temperatures for those respective months in the self explanatory regions. Irish Mean Temperature is the mean used for Ireland (figures here calculated by me), including Northern Ireland. The CET is for the Central England region and is the oldest dataset in the entire world. The main important mean temperatures in this case of course are those following SSW events. I'd like to put a disclaimer on the February 1985 figure though. As of a recent post looking at charts from this month, I am skeptical of this figure especially seeing how different it is to the CET value which is much colder. I need to recalculate this when I can because it does seem a bit odd given the synoptics and the CET value.

**The IMT (Irish Mean Temperature) is calculated by me. It is basically the CET of Ireland. However, I incorporate Northern Ireland's figure from the UKMO within the calculations of the IMT with Republic of Ireland stations' data from Met Éireann's yesterday's weather page and or historical data. I have calculated the IMT for every month back to January 1960 though some months like May 2017 and February 1985 are open up for recalculations/corrections at some point due to them being odd in comparison to synoptics and the CET values.

To no surprise, the results are very mixed. Every SSW event is unique, particularly the ones that took place here in 2018 and the 1985 event. I don't have time to go through every one of them sorry but hopefully my table is easy enough to follow so you can analyse yourself with these disclaimers and information.

ssw.PNG

Edited by BruenSryan

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Posted (edited)

Next table I'm sharing is of Winters that followed cool Autumns. The Autumn and Winter monthly mean temperatures are CET values and anomalies are using the 1981-2010 averages.

coolautumnsandthewintersthatfollowed.PNG

Edited by BruenSryan

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This table is of Winters following Summers ending in "8". Values are again CETs and based on the 1981-2010 averages.

wintersfollowingsummersendingin8.PNG

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Posted (edited)

This table is of weak La Nina Winters that were preceded by weak La Nina Winters like 2017/18 (2016/17 was a very slight (arguable and skeptical) weak La Nina). I made this to see if there was any interesting historical links with this unusual combination of ENSO, for Winter 2017/18. Values are CETs using the 1981-2010 averages.

weaklaninatoweaklaninawinters.PNG

Edited by BruenSryan

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Is your IMT defined the same way as in use on boards.ie weather forum? The backstory on IMT is that weather forum member "Deep Easterly" and myself (as you say, "M.T. Cranium") collaborated on getting an index value similar to CET in philosophy for use in both research and contest scoring uses. The IMT used by us is the average of five locations, namely Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Shannon and Oak Park (Carlow). These are central and inland locations. We also have a precip matrix defined to be these five plus six other locations, namely Malin Head, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, Cork, and Valentia. That would be our equivalent to the EWP. 

(The initials IMT stand for Irish Mean Temperature, at least in our formulation of it). 

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Is your IMT defined the same way as in use on boards.ie weather forum? The backstory on IMT is that weather forum member "Deep Easterly" and myself (as you say, "M.T. Cranium") collaborated on getting an index value similar to CET in philosophy for use in both research and contest scoring uses. The IMT used by us is the average of five locations, namely Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Shannon and Oak Park (Carlow). These are central and inland locations. We also have a precip matrix defined to be these five plus six other locations, namely Malin Head, Belmullet, Ballyhaise, Johnstown Castle, Cork, and Valentia. That would be our equivalent to the EWP. 

(The initials IMT stand for Irish Mean Temperature, at least in our formulation of it). 

No because I wanted to use more stations. I calculated back to the early 00s using the yesterday's weather page stations then people wanted me to include more stations as well as the Northern Ireland figure from the UK Met Office. As a result of this feedback, I went and included stations using Met Éireann's historical data - also the historical data on the NASA site for Irish stations, and the Northern Ireland figure from the UK Met Office. This can be controversial though because stations change from year to year and the further back I go in calculating, the less stations I have to use in the calculations of the figures.

I'm quite aware on the history of the IMT. Deep Easterly and I have spoken about this before in the Irish Weather Statistics thread on Boards.ie. We compare figures from time to time and these comparisons help to make me note where I've made a huge error in data calculations. Deviations between our figures tend to be within 0.5c but when they differ for like 0.6 or higher, especially over more than a degree, either the month had some large differences in temperature or I made some mistakes in the calculations. 

I do this to compare historical months and have a CET equivalent. I do not like how Ireland doesn't have an official index to show how warm or cool a month/season/year was in the island - which makes it hard to compare historical events in terms of temperature. 

Edited by BruenSryan
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Table of warm or hot Summer months (anomalies are based on 1981-2010 averages). I wanted to do this table to see if there's any slight correlation with the QBO and Summer months. To no surprise, there isn't. However, it's a fun table to look at nonetheless.

qbo correlation.png

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On 05/03/2018 at 21:39, hillbilly said:

Welcome Sean,i hope you bring something interesting to the forums but we are not all amateur forcasters with a degree in meteorology but that does not make us any less interested in weather than those who do and if you are brave enough to post any forcast beyond 2 weeks then you must prepare yourself for criticism !

I'll make sure not to post here then with them :closedeyes: 'cause long range forecasting and weather history are what I focus on. I like the experimental nature of long range forecasting, makes it very fun and enjoyable to me.

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I'm thinking of doing a Summer variation of my Winter methodology tables in my first post. The question though is, what methodology would I include on this? I know NAO, CET and UKMT are definite for sure.

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