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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


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The UKMO 144 has teased me out if hibernation - for a comment. 144 shows a very meridional flow across 50N with deep cold filtering into Scandi- could be a sharp transition from mild to cold

No mate, I'm still in winter mode as long as the Gfs shows potential arctic blasts..hope it continues!❄❄❄❄❄

Ahhh another chocolate teapot in your post... I believe the last one froze. It seems that we are seeing the second response to the SSW with another surge of negative zonal mean u winds heading fo

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Re the low pushing in from the SW Sunday into Monday, I don't think anyone is saying a lot of lying snow will result from this, but it could very well be the last chance to see snow falling until next winter, or if recent history repeats itself, somewhat longer!  (Heaven forbid!) The midlands have the advantage of the precipitation coming in overnight/morning, the north have the colder air, will be interesting to see what happens where.  
ARPEGE at T93 shows the possible southern extent of the snow risk, agrees with Met Office warning area:

arpegeuk-42-93-0.png?29-18

Edit, and further north going into Tuesday

arpegeuk-42-106-0.png?29-19

Edited by Mike Poole
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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

And then quickly replaces a northerly with high pressure milder air slowly but surely returning from the west

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Around next weekend seems to be the potential turning point for a more settled spell of weather to develop as indicated again today from the met office

 

Agree, but its inevitable that its going to warm up sometime, this is well into April, I still wouldn't rule out another cold spell before April is out either but of course naturally its generally going to be warmer as time passes now, because we are further into spring, plus we are coming off a very low base in terms of more warmer weather with 2 beasts in March and now Mondays frontal snow event.

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The Gfs 12z looks unbelievably wintry next week considering it's early april we are talking about..there is snow on most days next week, especially further north..last hurrah?..who knows the way this crazy spring is unfolding!..❄❄❄⛄⛄⛄:shok::cold:I'm hoping for warm settled weather towards mid april though!:D

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48 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 12z looks unbelievably wintry next week considering it's early april we are talking about..there is snow on most days next week, especially further north..last hurrah?..who knows the way this crazy spring is unfolding!..❄❄❄⛄⛄⛄:shok::cold:I'm hoping for warm settled weather towards mid april though!:D

Hi Frosty, a week ago this forum was buzzing about the potential for a third beast based on the model output then.I'm disillusioned by the current outcome versus prognosis of a week ago.I'm sure the warmer outcome will be the reality this week.:)

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4 minutes ago, Mildcarlisle said:

Hi Frosty, a week ago this forum was buzzing about the potential for a third beast based on the model output then.I'm disillusioned by the current outcome versus prognosis of a week ago.I'm sure the warmer outcome will be the reality this week.:)

The signs are there in this evenings gefs mean charts comparing day 5 and day 10

gensnh-21-1-120.png gensnh-21-1-240.png

A gradual rise of pressure from the Azores in week 2.Hopefully some improvement after this cold and wet week to come as the jet stream starts to shift north.

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11 minutes ago, Mildcarlisle said:

Hi Frosty, a week ago this forum was buzzing about the potential for a third beast based on the model output then.I'm disillusioned by the current outcome versus prognosis of a week ago.I'm sure the warmer outcome will be the reality this week.:)

Although the outlook is for below normal temperatures with any warmth going into E / SE Europe

image.thumb.png.bd4ac349bc105eceddb6dc717a165bca.png

What happens after D10 is open as the ENS show a very mixed picture.

:)

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Just looking at the UKMO day 5 chart we can see why the next few days look so cold and unsettled-as if anyone needed reminding

UW120-21.GIF?29-19 UW120-7.GIF?29-19

the jet stream right across us-southerly tracking lows from ongoing upstream energy exiting the eastern seaboard of NA.

A lot of cold air still lurking from the Scandinavian region -especially for the north.Hopefully the signs of improvement showing in the gefs for week 2 continue in later runs.

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21 minutes ago, Mildcarlisle said:

I'm sure the warmer outcome will be the reality this week.:)

Longer term the GEFS 12z mean shows good signs that high pressure could build in towards mid april with warmer and settled conditions developing across most of the uk which I'm sure most of us are hoping for ??but next week could be more wintry than spring-like, at least further north if the Gfs 12z op is even close.:)

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Edited by Frosty.
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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 12z looks unbelievably wintry next week considering it's early april we are talking about..there is snow on most days next week, especially further north..last hurrah?..who knows the way this crazy spring is unfolding!..❄❄❄⛄⛄⛄:shok::cold:I'm hoping for warm settled weather towards mid april though!:D

can't agree with wintry, yes Tues is mildest day, but other days look around 8 degrees?

ukmaxtemp.png

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1 hour ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Sorry, I wasn't present in the winter.

You didn't miss anything in winter, all the wintry fun has been this month in early spring, potentially more to come early next week if the models are right!:cold-emoji::D❄❄❄

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ECM has milder air moving north early next week always taking longer to get into Scotland with a continued chance of some snow in places here some temporary snow is possible more widely Monday as the rain associated with the milder air moves north

ECM0-96.thumb.GIF.a2403b9a7ecedc435bcfe3ffce530c6c.GIFECM0-120.thumb.GIF.6a57b74c933c92b5b3f9572504c6ecbc.GIF

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Chalk and cheese springs to mind when comparing 12z EC and GFS in 7 days time over UK, former has mild SWlies sourced from the Azores, the latter has a cold Nly developing thereafter. Not quite-clear cut next week and no firm promises of some spring-like warmth that the models were hinting at.

ECMOPEU12_168_2.thumb.png.d9f2349931310f89b538176078129098.pngEC T+168 GFSOPEU12_168_2.thumb.png.9a565f8becf5f4f3cb560aabc1d051ef.pngGFS T+168

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I think more runs are needed!:D the Gfs / Ecm (not for the first time) are seeing next week very differently but even the Ecm 12z shows a risk of snow across central uk early next week which could be disruptive on hills and scotland, at least the northern half has a cold wintry week up until next thurs / fri with snowy / windy weather, at least on higher ground but for most of the uk, the Ecm 12z shows milder air surging northwards as a low tracks NE across the uk but it does then turn cooler / colder from the west at T+240 hours.:)

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Edited by Frosty.
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Time for some swingometer updates. The previous one for March 31st is now settled. However some notes about the weekend.

- Persistence of cold seems to be linked to how far south the cold air gets on Sunday, with a couple of runs delaying the onset of milder air until Tuesday. The majority see the battleground scenario occuring on Monday.
- A small number of runs keep the UK cold though I reckon the odds on this are pretty low now.

Looking further ahead

image.thumb.png.a8b6f0d920b8afb811cf39f1754d9bc4.png

image.thumb.png.8b32c2173b2026880adf9673202e345b.png

- A trend has started to emerge on the 7th of a cyclonic picture returning or persisting so rainfall aplenty it seems however it is only a vague one at this point.
- There was a fair few members going for a Spanish plume like setup! That seems to have vanished on the 12z with notably more colder members
- Looking to mid April an anticyclonic signal was there at this early stage, its less clear now though.
- An increase in warmer runs but that shouldn't be too surprising given we usually see warmer weather as the month goes on!
 

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Over the past few days, we’ve seen a neg AO accelerated for early/middle next week. No doubt related to the next downwelling wave from the ssw which again wasn’t picked too well by the nwp. the recipients of unseasonal cold look like being Canada and ne China

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4 hours ago, AppleUK 123 said:

You seem to have a mild bias, not objective. You only really comment when the model indicates mildER weather.

There are biased posters of both the mild and cold variety on this forum whom will almost exclusively cherry pick and comment on the charts they wish to verify....their usernames and pen-pictures will often give a heavy hint as which side of the fence they sit on!

Plenty of objective and incredibly knowledge folk on here though who offer an objective view

 

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4 minutes ago, Peejayem said:

There are biased posters of both the mild and cold variety on this forum whom will almost exclusively cherry pick and comment on the charts they wish to verify....their usernames and pen-pictures will often give a heavy hint as which side of the fence they sit on!

Plenty of objective and incredibly knowledge folk on here though who offer an objective view

 

Thank you:)

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Pretty awful 18z, just a conveyer belt of low pressure systems heading to the UK.... one after the other.

I'd rather stay on the cold side UK wise, it would at least be drier. If we then get a build of pressure it wouldn't take long to warm up at this time of the year.

Increasing signs however that next week will be dominated by yet more cyclonic weather.

:bad:

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1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Pretty awful 18z, just a conveyer belt of low pressure systems heading to the UK.... one after the other.

I'd rather stay on the cold side UK wise, it would at least be drier. If we then get a build of pressure it wouldn't take long to warm up at this time of the year.

Increasing signs however that next week will be dominated by yet more cyclonic weather.

:bad:

Totally agree, we are at that turning point when of course it's easy to predict things will warm up. Less chance of looking foolish now were into BST so no gold stars. However, it really gets my goat when people champion yellows on the charts without advising this means rain albeit not cold rain.

Of course at this time of year most want warmer drier weather but I wish people wouldn't just post warmer charts without mentioning rain. Those that want the Blues want snow not ice days. I would prefer honesty when those championing the warmth make mention of dull wet clouds when getting excited about warmer southerlies.

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The battle of Britain coming up 

Today the cold not too far from the UK to the north, will sink south to most areas by sunday ,then milder air will push north on Monday from the south but how far north?,We can't rely on the models that far out at the moment 

So I would say the weather by then could range from snow for some/most in the south  to heavy rain  after short snow event in the souh with middle Britain seeing a whiteout 

The weather type will depend on how far north this low pushes north on Monday and how far north the cold air retreats

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On 24 March 2018 at 11:40, mb018538 said:

As that low pressure system just sits and fills over the UK, there is going to be a fair amount of ppn the next 10 days, with no areas really immune:

GFSOPUK06_240_18.png

Shouldn't be anything to cause alarm, just a typical wetter spell of weather.

 

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