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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

The area where the ECM 12z Op takes the 850's down towards -20 or lower compared with the mean

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.b2e0915d8edf73dc173dd697af812ca0.png

Safe to say it has gone off on one

The thing is most cold spells start off as an op or ensemble run that appears to have "gone off on one" So I wouldn't dismiss it entirely.

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The UKMO 144 has teased me out if hibernation - for a comment. 144 shows a very meridional flow across 50N with deep cold filtering into Scandi- could be a sharp transition from mild to cold

No mate, I'm still in winter mode as long as the Gfs shows potential arctic blasts..hope it continues!❄❄❄❄❄

Ahhh another chocolate teapot in your post... I believe the last one froze. It seems that we are seeing the second response to the SSW with another surge of negative zonal mean u winds heading fo

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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

It doesn’t ?

the day 8 cluster had the anomoly to our ne - the difference days 9/10 is the polar ridge which is notoriously difficult to model 

yesterday’s spreads had a ne Scandi  high 

whilst this is an unlikely solution, l I wasn’t surprised to see it emerging 

Damn you're right, it is supported by cluster 2 this morning - only 17% of members though.

Well if the op has crossed to that cluster, maybe there's a bit more in it tonight.

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18 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Damn you're right, it is supported by cluster 2 this morning - only 17% of members though.

Well if the op has crossed to that cluster, maybe there's a bit more in it tonight.

The 12z mean/anomolys heading towards cluster 2 

could we see the mid Atlantic ridge growing to link over to a n scandi ridge of sorts ?? Euro trough getting cut off perhaps ?

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I'm sure (well, almost sure) that I can recall March & April 1965 being cold and snowy, and dominated by mostly easterly winds...?

With the PFJ being so far south, this year, I don't think another incursion of very cold air can be ruled out... Late April 1981 was a bit odd, too...:good:

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3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

what does the gfs show, don't trust the ECM, having said that, which model picked up the beast first.

Gfs was playing with it beyond day 10 which doesn’t leave any room for the other models to get there first ...

Ecm was making a decent stab at the actual solution from day 10 apart from one mobile dodgy run

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Gfs was playing with it beyond day 10 which doesn’t leave any room for the other models to get there first ...

Ecm was making a decent stab at the actual solution from day 10 apart from one mobile dodgy run

UKMO was on the money. Usually the model of modesty. 

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Eps clusters out to day 10 are single which means the op, whilst not heavily supported in detail isn’t far away from the upper heights pattern. The difference between cold for March and potentially very cold for March is going to come down to the polar ridge on that basis. Still no sign of spring apart from the odd day.

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2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm sure (well, almost sure) that I can recall March & April 1965 being cold and snowy, and dominated by mostly easterly winds...?

With the PFJ being so far south, this year, I don't think another incursion of very cold air can be ruled out... Late April 1981 was a bit odd, too...:good:

 

Yes, March and April '65 very much were.

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The 00z suites continue to play with the wedges and amplifications - no strong idea of what to do with them although the gfs op shows good continuity from the ideas of yesterday’s ec 12z without the polar ridge getting involved whic makes more sense and fits the extended eps better. (Plus the predicted strat profile)

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Nice FI cold blast on Gfs 00z..I still think we could see another wintry spell during the second half or last third of march..fingers crossed!:):cold-emoji:

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Once again the Op is on the colder side of the mean for the FI cold air

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.d4ea301ea434971dbcf01f8c0be5dd2a.png

From tomorrow the London mean doesn't fall below 0 until at least the 16th with the colder blip at the end on the cold side of the mean

This was the mean on Tuesday morning

gefsens850London0.png.65bca9fea5fc08e25bb85f3fbab999d0.thumb.png.06f41afe7b8c5ccd49f6767afe6dbb45.png

 

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12 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm sure (well, almost sure) that I can recall March & April 1965 being cold and snowy, and dominated by mostly easterly winds...?

With the PFJ being so far south, this year, I don't think another incursion of very cold air can be ruled out... Late April 1981 was a bit odd, too...:good:

If I remember rightly in 1981 we had been dominated by high pressure for a few weeks which made it feel very much spring like in the sun though I remember it being chilly in shade, day before snow starting on the Friday we had a few snow showers early Thursday morning that came in from the west.

The low that brought the blizzards was the usual tracking from south west of us to south east. 

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This morning's clusters - still looking for a small height rise to the north, possibly NE or NW. Perhaps a little more encouraging that yesterday morning for bringing cold to the UK, but fairly weak so could go either way. Cold rain still the main dish on offer.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018030800_216.

Towards the end of the month, like yesterday the focus on ridging is more towards the NW but still waiting to see how the trend will develop. Very unlike last week's cold blast which the ensembles shouted out loud 15 days before it happened!

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018030800_360.

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The Gfs 6z is generally unsettled and shows a colder spell during the last third of march with snow for some, especially further north. I don't think we will see anything wintry as such during the next 10 days or so, indeed, there is some very mild weather on the way for the weekend and at times next week but beyond that..there is a chance!:)

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

The UKMO 144 has teased me out if hibernation - for a comment.

144 shows a very meridional flow across 50N with deep cold filtering into Scandi-

could be a sharp transition from mild to cold across the UK across day 7/8

9E32D25F-8885-4016-AF78-9BE0CC55EF4F.thumb.png.c2b3963edbb58b29e29b2bd2b0440109.png

Even though it's March, and even though we just experienced one of the coldest, snowiest periods of recent years thanks to a proper easterly flow. I can't help but look for the last chance saloon when it comes to winter weather. We are still in March and after the record breaking SSW, colder more blocked conditions are surely more favourable than milder springlike ones, whether we like it or not!

UKMO did catch my eye this evening when checking the runs, coupled with the ECM from yesterday, and the general background signal, it would not surprise me if we did end up seeing one last hurrah from winter 17/18 which overall has been pretty darned good.

It will be interesting to look back on March as a whole when it's done and see if that record SSW had the legs to deliver more than the initial beast....

 

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Interesting Gfs 12z in low res with a chance of a Easterly / Beasterly evolving and even something from the Arctic towards the end, something which will hopefully keep cropping up and eventually heading towards high res..coldies can at least hope for another wintry blast before March is over!:D:cold-emoji:

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Evening...It looks as though the jet stream will be to our south for a while yet, hints from the 12z suite from gfs shows ridging from the south ,could it be the old adage March in like a lion and out like a lamb:cc_confused:

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