Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in here! 
Other options:
Model moans, ramps and banter
Regional discussions

For more focused short-range model discussion:
Short-range Model Discussion

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

The UKMO 144 has teased me out if hibernation - for a comment. 144 shows a very meridional flow across 50N with deep cold filtering into Scandi- could be a sharp transition from mild to cold

No mate, I'm still in winter mode as long as the Gfs shows potential arctic blasts..hope it continues!❄❄❄❄❄

Ahhh another chocolate teapot in your post... I believe the last one froze. It seems that we are seeing the second response to the SSW with another surge of negative zonal mean u winds heading fo

Posted Images

Majority of the longer range models are showing the Azores high starting to wake up during next week despite what GFS shows I still wouldn't rule out something better for Easter

ECM1-192.thumb.GIF.b1a33afd4bc4cdaa044f3e8408522949.GIFgfs-0-180.thumb.png.532f4ccf91c29b4adb712da75fce0166.pngicon-0-180.thumb.png.b1da8d0a84bfb3066725427704d69287.png

gem-0-180.thumb.png.ba12d2b18d2fdc35c73c0389f2f4f14c.pngnavgem-0-180.thumb.png.081abc48302a3993db5c5bc2b627c497.png

Edited by Summer Sun
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

gawd can't we just start to look forward to some warmth and sunshine mate? We have, well most of us, a double helping of snow, cold and even blizzards this month. I grant you the 500 mb anomaly charts are not looking like any Spanish plumes in the next 2 weeks. But to me enough is enough thanks.

links below

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

How did those 500mb charts do in the prediction of these Easterlies? 

Spring will come when spring comes.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

How did those 500mb charts do in the prediction of these Easterlies? 

Spring will come when spring comes.

They were pretty good for the end of February, I wrote this note in my file on them on 

Well come Tuesday 13 th and another change with ec-gfs, now both show ridging/+ve heights with any troughing now e or se of uk

Noaa 6-10  showing blocking in from sw; whilst its 8-14 has markedly changed and now shows quite marked blocking; niot showing 6-10 but not totally different to ec-gfs, 8-14 is first time, I think, this winter such a blocking signal

NOAA kept this signal quite solidly although the other two took 4-5 days to get to pretty much the same page

Equally the gave good notice of the change to end that cold outbreak.

For the recent one 

Sat 10 March

 Ec-gfs both show cut off low below uk; not there before, ec has little flow over most of uk,

Noaa not a cut off but slack trough over uk on 6-10 which is not too differenty from one above?

8-14 mainly westerly atlantic but less than past few charts

and 14th

Wed 14 march

 Ec-gfs and differences again from above charts, how ridge is dealt with and subsequent flow into uk

Noaa keeps its idea started sun as above of some kind of ridging/+ve heights Iceland/Greenland area (and uk) but 8-14, as in past 2-3 days shows no sign of this. Instead small +ve heights azores area with a flow from n of w into uk, not a mild one and v slight remains of ridge Iceland/Greenland but v slight

In my view the overall guidance was once more better from NOAA on its 6-10 day than ECMWF-GFS but less solid than the earlier one, but good enough to give guidance that a cold snap was on its way. It did appear to suggest, to me, and you will find a post from me somewhere around this time, that I felt the outbreak of cold would be from NW not E/NE.

 

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I didn’t see much comment on the ukmo this morning - the other models are taking the stalling trough north and throwing out some disruption se into Europe. Ukmo wanted to take the trough ese en masse which would provide for some wintry interest sooner rather than later. Given ukmo’s recent day 6 performance you would think it would fall into line in half an hour. Ukmo taking things se when the other output takes it ne recalls feb 2013 I think 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

1st of the 12z complete and it is good news with ICON showing high pressure starting to build to our south as we move into Easter week still chilly at first but milder air begins to move in with time

icon-0-144.thumb.png.32e5796820b0c8043e2c970e34b187a3.pngicon-0-168.thumb.png.cf33b6e338be2b02b2050ebf56e55337.pngicon-0-180.thumb.png.29093f16f2fe35dceaa2337c03b4c76a.png

icon-1-144.thumb.png.193bcf593018f8cfda055719be37f0eb.pngicon-1-168.thumb.png.d78da5d6b4b192fcd542be570debf939.pngicon-1-180.thumb.png.f210033aa1a891cf55bb70c5076062c1.png

Let's hope we see a trend to milder air continuing some positive signs today so far that the Azores high might finally be about to wake up again

:)

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep here she comes. 

IMG_1960.PNG

IMG_1961.PNG

Yes, so another cold spell in spring showing on the models that you would have snapped someones hand off for in mid winter, given the last few years of tripe.

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, sawan said:

Would be great if we could have another thread 'After the Beast 2, what's next?' Sorry, I know it's off topic but we don't get many opportunities like this during winter, do we?:pardon:

Especially when it’s spring .........

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, so another cold spell in spring showing on the models that you would have snapped someones hand off for in mid winter, given the last few years of tripe.

Looks like the Easter bunny is doing his best to bring us cold on that chart ?

 

Screenshot_20180319-173330.jpg

Edited by Connor Bailey Degnan
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Looks like the Easter bunny is doing his best to bring us cold on that chart ?

Screenshot_20180319-173023.jpg

Lovely support from the GFS for the N'ly but we need to start seeing the EPS with more than 35%, I'm not so much worried by the London graph this time because those are 2M MAX temps so a) they are going to be high with the urban heat effect, b) late in season you can still have heavy snow with temps a few degrees above freezing and c) temps will drop in any snow and d) places outside London and particularly further North will be lower. We do need to start seeing the means and clusters looking better though.

Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, cold snap said:

The GFS 12z from 240 is insane for the time for the time of year .it could well snow again if those charts come to fruition

I get what you're saying CS - but I can hardly recall a year in which snow has not fallen after March 19...?

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Darn, a cold ensemble set from the GFS here. Many look cyclonic again with temperatures a bit below average, however quite a few runs are bringing the northerly forward a bit. The odd ensemble member also bring that Scandinavian cold pool close...

An increase in northern blocking too, though that is still more frequent in April, which when the first week show in full on the ensembles I will update a new swingometer to track what it shows.

Anyway, little warmth to be found in this batch

image.thumb.png.e786d4b2f047c880311dd617a17ed21e.png

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
×
×
  • Create New...