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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


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The UKMO 144 has teased me out if hibernation - for a comment. 144 shows a very meridional flow across 50N with deep cold filtering into Scandi- could be a sharp transition from mild to cold

No mate, I'm still in winter mode as long as the Gfs shows potential arctic blasts..hope it continues!❄❄❄❄❄

Ahhh another chocolate teapot in your post... I believe the last one froze. It seems that we are seeing the second response to the SSW with another surge of negative zonal mean u winds heading fo

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

    Meanwhile GFS says a firm NO a continuation of snow showers in the S/E albeit more scattered.

    CBE06161-2FD7-41F4-A2CB-2BF8569AA3D4.thumb.png.c50df940819ecc9c74dcba850c766435.pngD4968BAA-E66A-4658-8DBA-DD3224E205E8.thumb.png.b0cd1db3dbd68f2f6ec58e5dbcd50c2e.png

    Jersey and Guernsey loving the gfs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire

    image.thumb.png.a2e83779f68755636ce1a1fcc3fa7a30.png

    Also UKMO chart looks a bit strange at T72 with a void of synoptic features over the Central North Atlantic. Surely some features will form in this region? I've never seen it look that featureless before.

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Gfs 12z just getting the signal divergence!

    Miss dynamics at present-and varient of ups and downs, are fraught.

    Ecm deals with minor exactions in current time range more easily.

    So for me ec-12z needs taking on a serious note this evening.

    A direct full frontal hit(easterly) mid country...

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    h850t850eu.png h850t850eu.png

    So it did flatten the ridge, but not as progressively or as far as recent GFS runs or the 12z runs of UKMO and GEM.

    This seems more intuitive given the background of weakly reversed winds and GLAAM mostly neutral to very weakly negative plus a quiet MJO; what reason could there be for the troughs to power through with little resistance? 

    It makes for a quieter route to the mid-Atlantic ridging setup that the models have been keen on for next weekend onward. After so much rain lately, I'm all for that, so here's hoping GFS is onto something here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Big improvement on this evenings UKMO compared to yesterday's and slight improvement on GFS with the high further NW and stronger Easterly feed.

    UKMO yesterday/Today

    UN120-21.GIF?13-12UN96-21.GIF?14-17

    Hopefully ECM follows suit and we can get further corrections NW which would give more areas of the UK a chance of snow and prolong the cold somewhat.

    Based on current output it doesn't look like we will get a proper retrograde pattern still with too much Atlantic forcing but it would nice to see the models keep correcting the high further NW to allow a reload from the NE

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    UKMO becomes more settled as we move into next week still a chill in the air leading to some sharp and widespread frosts overnight but given the stronger sunshine now days wouldn't be feeling too bad cloud permitting and with shelter from any breeze

    UKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.c2d01bb2bab74690cc8e82db91180e8a.png

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    Big improvement on this evenings UKMO compared to yesterday's and slight improvement on GFS with the high further NW and stronger Easterly feed.

    UKMO yesterday/Today

    UN120-21.GIF?13-12UN96-21.GIF?14-17

    Hopefully ECM follows suit and we can get further corrections NW which would give more areas of the UK a chance of snow and prolong the cold somewhat.

    Based on current output it doesn't look like we will get a proper retrograde pattern still with too much Atlantic forcing but it would nice to see the models keep correcting the high further NW to allow a reload from the NE

     

    Mucka im really surprised you have not mentioned the 72 hour chart from today to yesterdays 96 hour chart!!the differences are massive and todays 12z for the same time brings colder air in way more quickly and also the easterly is much further north all the way up to scotland!!i would not be surpised to see things upgrade even further!!

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

    UKMO further north

    Today

    UW96-21.thumb.GIF.5323d93ee16dd3cc4699ce56cebb3498.GIF

    Yesterday

    UW120-21.thumb.GIF.3618ba3b98983947587d0ea68e8e4efa.GIF

     

    Are you joining the dark side Gavin - LOL :D

    Great runs so far with GFS / IKON prolonging the cold right the way through the runs virtually..

    After a brief 'less cold', not mild, midweek look at the following weekend

    image.thumb.png.07dfb3eee020e83e90693fd33e653494.pngimage.thumb.png.3de2515b809cbdcd84943cafb56d6a27.png

    :)

    Edited by Purga
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Ecm and icon come out of this with kudos if today’s 12z’s thus far are on the money 

    whats the betting ecm 12z takes the cold pool through Milan !!!!!!!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
    2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Hopefully tonight’s outputs so far will cause some to refrain from the wrist slashing which has been evident over the last few days .

    You know who you are! :D

    The UKMO has a wider area of instability and a stronger flow, having been the least interested it’s now on board .

    The GFS manages to hold the high further north for longer as some trough disruption upstream feeds the Euro trough .

     

     

     

    Yes it's always re-assuring when the UKMO comes on board at this stage Nick.

    Looking at the 00z ens and comparing 12z outputs so far there could be up to a 3 day window for snow fall in favoured locations where we have some effect from that upper cold pool plus any streamers that crop up.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    1 minute ago, phil nw. said:

    Yes it's always re-assuring when the UKMO comes on board at this stage Nick.

    Looking at the 00z ens and comparing 12z outputs so far there could be up to a 3 day window for snow fall in favoured locations where we have some effect from that upper cold pool plus any streamers that crop up.

    Yes definitely the UKMO is always the decider in these set ups. I’m intrigued to see whether a bit more trough disruption might occur upstream in future runs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
    1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

    Meanwhile GFS says a firm NO a continuation of snow showers in the S/E albeit more scattered.

    CBE06161-2FD7-41F4-A2CB-2BF8569AA3D4.thumb.png.c50df940819ecc9c74dcba850c766435.pngD4968BAA-E66A-4658-8DBA-DD3224E205E8.thumb.png.b0cd1db3dbd68f2f6ec58e5dbcd50c2e.png

    GFS has the same idea just a timing issue whether it will be Monday or Tuesday for cutting off the easterly still plenty of chilly air about either way but the feel would be slightly better by if you had some sunshine

    gfs-0-144.thumb.png.b1a215b64801970ec5a91d81d6803ede.png

    GFS mean and UKMO at t144

    gens-21-1-144.thumb.png.c1ac55ba1f5353c8975803cd8883e7c4.pngUW144-21.thumb.GIF.a51ce44a8a4e55a15d2fb5aa5d8d1f66.GIF

     

     

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Interesting GEFS.

    Within that there are some solutions which extend the cold. The key is that upstream trough disruption though.

    At this stage the odds are still on a slow warm up as the ridge topples but I don’t think it’s as set in stone as this time yesterday.

    Its inevitable after the sub -10 air departs that there will be less cold conditions but still cold against the average.

    Its whether it turns milder in the medium term,  I think we’d need a few more runs to see.

     

     

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    So from a brief look at the models before leaving work, it seems the position is:

    ICON upgrade

    GFS upgrade

    UKMO significant upgrade

    GEM upgrade

    ARPEGE not so good, sinks the high early Monday.

    So my interest in this spell is renewed, certainly.

    i'm still struck by the depth of cold reaching the UK, GFS has -14C or -15C at T90:

    gfs-1-90.png?12

    Maybe worth noting how cold the North Sea actually is at the moment:

    sstuk.gif

    We await the ECM with interest.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    10 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    Interesting indeed, time to update the swing-o-lol-o-meter

    image.thumb.png.0c6c33ffdbed50a2af7f5ba2581bc773.png :D

    A very noticeable shift north when all seemed to be heading south. Quite the turnaround and some go for a clean easterly passing right through the whole of the UK. The purple runs are where somewhere in the UK has -5C uppers right until next weekend.

    Given the cleaner easterly the potential for for energy slipping uunder the high is there which would in turn keep the Atlantic at bay and perhaps set up a northerly.

    Still a bit tricky, however don't rule out a comeback of the fabled purple line...

    So does that include the weekend or say upto Friday? 

    Your cold extension threshold is quite high . :D

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
    29 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Not one single shot of the UKMO 72

    43FD636C-5A79-4BE2-9DAA-43E1FB53B269.thumb.png.9a4df2276302239a194a1a25baa17f25.png

    At least it will be dry... ;)

    Lol if that’s dry there’s something seriously wrong 

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