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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


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Posted
  • Location: Dover. Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, sun, thunder, storms, frosts, summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Dover. Kent

    Its the upper cold pool that will make the difference between light and heavy snow showers.  If it passes over, you will know about it! More runs needed.  Events of Saturday night weather-wise will become a bit clearer by Thursday 12zs, so another 2 days of fruity debate about where it will snow.

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    The UKMO 144 has teased me out if hibernation - for a comment. 144 shows a very meridional flow across 50N with deep cold filtering into Scandi- could be a sharp transition from mild to cold

    No mate, I'm still in winter mode as long as the Gfs shows potential arctic blasts..hope it continues!❄❄❄❄❄

    Ahhh another chocolate teapot in your post... I believe the last one froze. It seems that we are seeing the second response to the SSW with another surge of negative zonal mean u winds heading fo

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    UKMO extended follows on from t144 with high pressure for the UK any showers isolated and mainly for coastal regions of Scotland

     

    534535.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    An unfortunate trend today on the ecm (following on from the ukmo of yesterday) to bring the scandi high too close to the uk too soon. This results in a higher chance of this being a predominantly dry easterly as opposed to snowy. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    JMA now trended towards the UKMO sinker solution as well.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    Sadly from a cold and snowlovers point of view the trend to sink the Scandie high southwest very quickly after the initial cold pool over the weekend has gained some traction today across the models. So it does look like being a relatively quick cold snap. Although there are no blow torches on the horizon following on from this.

    Indeed the ECM gives us another tease at days 9/10 with a much bigger cold pool over Scandinavia that could be advected west if as Nick Sussex has already suggested there was a slight retrogression in the pattern which is not out of the question. A lot of water under the bridge between now and then though and hopefully some snow on top of the bridge as well. We will see,

    Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Well it is positively icy in here after the 12s, and no one seems to want to post the chart that seems to represent the tipping point, so I'll take one for the team.   Here's the ECM ensemble mean at T168, clearly sinking the high.  

    EDM1-168.GIF

    But was it ever really going to be more than a cold snap, this late into Spring?

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Well it is positively icy in here after the 12s, and no one seems to want to post the chart that seems to represent the tipping point, so I'll take one for the team.   Here's the ECM ensemble mean at T168, clearly sinking the high.  

    EDM1-168.GIF

    But was it ever really going to be more than a cold snap, this late into Spring?

    It’s never looked anything more than a snap so hardly unexpected. There’s some wiggle room here as GFS shows we see it properly collapse Wednesday. The fate of the ridge is not sealed yet even with immediate cold there’s uncertainty so I wouldn’t start saying this or that is going to happen with confidence.

    First let’s get agreement on the weekend and then thereafter..

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)

    I don’t think anyone should be disappointed with a cold snap with -12/-13 uppers at this time of year that “only” last 2/3 days. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    Evening All , I find this cold spell , from the East very fascinating and interesting ,Much more so than the last Easterly,  Could well be some very severe weather from convective storms which will fall as thunder snow , and there could well be some more general snow, Now , I want Spring more than anything but this short, sharp blast of late Winter will again make news headlines and some amazing cloudscapes , and expect the unexpected :yahoo: The strength of the sun this time of year will influence what we have at the surface , but both models show a settling down . with high pressure building with residual cold :cold: Sharp overnight frosts ,warm days and some Pop up thunderstorms.... It may look like winter charts at first, but by T+240  Spring has Sprung...:yahoo:

    pointless.png

     

    pointlessx.png

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    pointlessxxx.png

    Edited by phil nw.
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    Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset

    I'm pleased that the 12zs have shifted the high south cutting off the cold air sooner. Dry and sunny will beat briefly cold and snowy, particularly this time of year. Some warmer sunnier days would be appreciated now please. Its been a very long winter! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    ICON continuing in a similar vein, snowy especially for the South East and Southern England with organised snowfall too courtesy of a shortwave tracking w along channel.

    ABF9411D-7AB6-4BBA-92C6-D442600FEAC0.thumb.png.859551569f7ad7949f53290adffb5a5f.png1BB313B4-1B5E-4B94-9C69-17990AA80279.thumb.png.dc80c04c59d7a1d0a7ea1086476b1b36.png3E697C36-5042-45C8-B4BB-A4B83CF11188.thumb.png.620c744e9b2940d436085f170ae0680a.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset

    Icon 18z shows Easterly winds arriving this weekend but there has been a noticeable shift south with the bulk of the coldest uppers and instability south of the UK through the channel and northern France. There is still an area of snow moving east to west across southern England on this run but much further south and less widespread than the 12z. I for one am hoping this southerly trend continues. Would be nice to have some nice sunny days next week for once with temps back towards the 5-8c mark for many after Tuesday. Long way to go to call this though but the trend is definitely south compared to this morning and last night.

    18z Vs 12z for 16:00 Sunday 18thScreenshot_20180313-212804.thumb.png.aac18f72774d3a793a6fcfa323b94cf2.png

    Screenshot_20180313-212835.png

    Edited by SizzlingHeat
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ICON 18z keeping the faith, at least into Sunday, good run this:

    icon-0-120.png?13-18

    icon-1-120.png?13-18

    Volatility!  Still some way to go on this one.

    Meanwhile, GFS slowly trickling out.

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Coldest air a bit further south on ICON 18z compared to 12z by Sunday

    18z

    icon-1-120.thumb.png.738100dba85727284ad187a66b2a6203.pngicon-0-120.thumb.png.2fdd141dde91431388408d1c41073d77.png

    12z

    icon-1-126.thumb.png.73272fc8a1753d46d4305597eb650b45.pngicon-0-126.thumb.png.edef3a64873b791eba12cb2e4d203f4a.png

    Still cold widely maybe less in the way of snow further north with the high further south

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

    With the Icon now on board we have complete agreement on this being a mainly dry frosty weekend with any wintry showers confined to southeast UK. Will feel bitterly cold all the same on Sunday before it turns mainly fine and cold thereafter

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    10 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

    Hope this trend continues :D

    Winter can do one now, its been a long 6 months! 

    I’m unsure I think it’s better for longevity? Therefore I don’t know about that...

    Azores ridge pumping more WAA? Assisting blocking holding my thoughts. 

    CFDA84D8-F259-40A4-ACE1-F6DDEAF86DFB.thumb.png.7c7fef292cb32ce4aebd91c22523dd8b.png V B0B791AF-1C0D-4E15-AF06-9DAE6BD38DBD.thumb.png.d87ea932e9a117612ed92da916dd5635.png

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

    With the Icon now on board we have complete agreement on this being a mainly dry frosty weekend with any wintry showers confined to southeast UK. Will feel bitterly cold all the same on Sunday before it turns mainly fine and cold thereafter

    will be more than wintry showers for Kent and most of SE, more like 15cms plus in favoured spots, agree say Northampton NW wards mainly dry with odd snow flurry

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
    10 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

    With the Icon now on board we have complete agreement on this being a mainly dry frosty weekend with any wintry showers confined to southeast UK. Will feel bitterly cold all the same on Sunday before it turns mainly fine and cold thereafter

    Showers pushing in from the north sea from Edinburgh southwards, areas close to the Irish sea in Ireland will also see showers (how far they drive inland will not be picked up at this range) and most importantly an area of persistent snow which affects the south of the UK on Sunday morning.

    That is all from the 18z ICON run. 

    Also bear in mind that if the deep cold misses us to the south, then it isn't guaranteed to be sunny if the wind is still coming from the east, quite the opposite and I think a dry, dull and raw weekend is probably not ideal.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    13 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

    With the Icon now on board we have complete agreement on this being a mainly dry frosty weekend with any wintry showers confined to southeast UK. Will feel bitterly cold all the same on Sunday before it turns mainly fine and cold thereafter

    I think you’re pulling things out of thin air. So dry oh my! Reality it’s a rather snowy run for Southern England.

    694E927D-1F4F-4CC5-B183-DEC608377A73.thumb.png.154c693b7551eb6cf1f1c391e69dc932.png

    Edited by Daniel*
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    Posted
  • Location: Addingham moorside West Yorkshire 2-250m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Crisp Cold Days
  • Location: Addingham moorside West Yorkshire 2-250m
    1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

    Well it is positively icy in here after the 12s, and no one seems to want to post the chart that seems to represent the tipping point, so I'll take one for the team.   Here's the ECM ensemble mean at T168, clearly sinking the high.  

    EDM1-168.GIF

    But was it ever really going to be more than a cold snap, this late into Spring?

    To be fair the first Beast was only a Cold Snap that caused chaos for 3-4days. I’ll take another ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    20 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

    With the Icon now on board we have complete agreement on this being a mainly dry frosty weekend with any wintry showers confined to southeast UK. Will feel bitterly cold all the same on Sunday before it turns mainly fine and cold thereafter

    Okay Dokay Hi Res says different

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=114&mode=42&map=330

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=91&mode=42&map=330

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?ech=114&mode=2&map=330

     

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

    So that’s it nailed then? Do you not remember the last blast was up and down a bit before the models all settled down in the outcome.

    im pretty sure come say Thursday it will all look loads different for better or worse. 

    Most certainly not nailed so you can’t say it will be dry and over in couple of days, small changes lead to big changes for our little part of the world.

    i for one want another beast before some nice warm spring weather, so bring on bitter air with loads of snow

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    Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

    gfs-1-96.png?18

    The southward correction continues on tonight's 18 run. If this trend continues a lot of the UK and Ireland will not get any easterly (away from southeast uk)

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in here! 
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