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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?


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The UKMO 144 has teased me out if hibernation - for a comment. 144 shows a very meridional flow across 50N with deep cold filtering into Scandi- could be a sharp transition from mild to cold

No mate, I'm still in winter mode as long as the Gfs shows potential arctic blasts..hope it continues!❄❄❄❄❄

Ahhh another chocolate teapot in your post... I believe the last one froze. It seems that we are seeing the second response to the SSW with another surge of negative zonal mean u winds heading fo

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended at t168 doesn't look too bad some precipitation in the far west bit dry for the majority

ukm2.2018031912_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.eaf5a5a93072abf066c93f9a14d43734.png

I don't know why we take those anymore seriously than GFS past 192, UKMO didn't even see the Scandi ridge when it was at 144.

Seems to lose the plot after 120 for some reason.

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8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended at t168 doesn't look too bad some precipitation in the far west bit dry for the majority

ukm2.2018031912_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.eaf5a5a93072abf066c93f9a14d43734.png

That chart confirms the phasing issues and looks crxp compared to the others!

I really would advise that people wait till tomorrow morning before thinking this is a done deal re the easterly .

The UKMO before that day 7 has already left the party and gone home .

Edited by nick sussex
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11 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I don't know why we take those anymore seriously than GFS past 192, UKMO didn't even see the Scandi ridge when it was at 144.

Seems to lose the plot after 120 for some reason.

Agree it's the only model with low pressure situated west of Ireland as if it has no clue what to do with it as most others transfer energy se.

UKMO is the first chart.

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Edited by winterof79
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The GEFS 12z mean is a lot colder for the coming weekend, especially sunday and also well into next week so it looks like some of us will be seeing snow showers and severe wind-chill again soon and we will all see a return of penetrating frosts..probably more pipe busting frosts similar to last time.:cold::D

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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM mean @120

Solid as a rock !

842E5C6A-1B26-4120-A042-FD270CE1E348.thumb.png.9c37fd6883d851cc6029143e71089284.png

Brilliant mean from ECM...If correct, the England and Ireland rugby teams would be well advised to wear their thermals in Twickenham on Saturday....could also be snow showers rattling through during the game....

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

London

graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=305&y=143&run=1

IMBY

graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=271&y=28&run=12

that's a marked drop off from prev runs:D

The op is well on track within its ensembles. The same pattern of getting cold in by Saturday was also the most common on the ensembles this morning when looking at individual runs. Because of this, in my opinion, the ECM op has to be the favoured option tonight. How things have changed in the past 48 hours.

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42 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

That chart confirms the phasing issues and looks crxp compared to the others!

I really would advise that people wait till tomorrow morning before thinking this is a done deal re the easterly .

The UKMO before that day 7 has already left the party and gone home .

I agree we are almost there like last time ,just one more day ,maybe two and then we can start scanning the forecast for what we are about to receive 

I've always admired your cautious way you always deliver how it is now posts down the years right back to those bbc forum days

No smokescreen reterick, just honest prognosis on what you read into each chart run 

Well done nick for your input and efforts over many many years

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Amazing isn't it, just a few days ago some of the models were showing a mild weekend on the way with temps into the low teens celsius but now look at tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean showing a bitterly cold Easterly with snow showers and severe frosts..great stuff ??:cold:❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

ECMAVGEU12_96_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_120_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_144_2.png

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image.thumb.png.e4d5c76923cb0f4cb0e5d09e9e92f296.png

In light of the current synoptic situation I've decided to group the runs according to the four scenarios.

Insufficient cold for snowfalls - The easterly doesn't make it and we don't get northern blocking later
Direct easterly hit - The cold is so favourably alligned anywhere could be cold enough for snow from the easterly
Cold from indirect easterly - Things still turn cold however the main pool of cold air may be more confined to one area of the country
Cold later from northern blocking - The easterly doesn't materialise but we get sufficient cold from the north later.

Note that some runs have both an easterly and a potent northerly, with some of the northerlies really quite cold! A direct easterly hit followed by a Greenland high would give us a really cold second half to March!

The overall trend is for the UK to turn much colder then normal. With a direct hit looking like the form horse right now.

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Haven't been paying much attention of the models in recent days, but not that surprised to see another easterly popping up on the models and within the reliable, given we are in a sluggish atlantic pattern, the jet has no oomph to hit, the PV is in its death throes and we have the long lasting effects of the Strat warming predominating.

UKMO, GFS and ECM all now showing a very potent long drawn easterly for the weekend, thanks to low pressure to the SW spinning in on itself, and low pressure pulled out of NW Russia SW, allowing a shot of very cold arctic air to invade NE Europe, and heights to settle over scandi. Indeed it looks a possible shorter but quite similiar evolution to 26-28 Feb, with heights quickly ridging west towards Greenland, but perhaps this time not making it all the way, and the end result will be heights settling towards Iceland maintaining a cold flow from the north. Longer term, every chance a potent northerly could be on its way, in time for Easter maybe.

So after a pleasant mild weekend just gone, and a couple of mild albeit rather drab days ahead, all change again, with much colder conditions, chance of snow showers to low levels, and longer term rather dry and sunny but some severe frosts possible, before a possible arctic plume from the north. Northerlies in late March can pack a very cold wintry punch still, indeed well into April as well.

The start to Spring 2018 has hallmarks of 2013 to it..but also the likes of 2001 and 1996.

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Just T105 now-

Slight refinements in the cone of spread, seemingly the Entry point looks to be EA -

But a wider envelope of cold has developed in the last 24 hours- with -13/-14 the landing zone

8F2A15A2-E836-4CA5-A4B8-BDA3C7FE57FE.thumb.png.65519e805459954ff91bf111881b4241.png

Edited by Steve Murr
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28 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

OK so here's the 18z ICON at T120

icon-0-120.png?12-18

850s

icon-1-120.png?12-18

This will hopefully cool the atmosphere after the Irish beat the English at twickenham to seal the grand slam.....and on st paddy’s day to :yahoo:

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Well I didn't expect to be back on here this winter but the emergence of the Beast MkII has flushed me back out of my hibernation.  Looking great at 114 with the cold in around 12 hours earlier than the 12z

gfsnh-0-114.png?18 gfs-1-114.png?18

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