Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Windy?
Paul

Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

Paul

Please only post model discussion in here! 
Other options:
Model moans, ramps and banter
Regional discussions

For more focused short-range model discussion:
Short-range Model Discussion

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

Swingometer updated again for the last week of March and a more blocked picture is definitely emerging with a stronger signal for heights to our N/NW.

image.thumb.png.0d226c6a3a177e41b236270c4f856f43.png

A few runs see cold air from Scandinavia reaching the UK again, though not as cold as this mini-beast obviously!

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Swingometer updated again for the last week of March and a more blocked picture is definitely emerging with a stronger signal for heights to our N/NW.

image.thumb.png.0d226c6a3a177e41b236270c4f856f43.png

A few runs see cold air from Scandinavia reaching the UK again, though not as cold as this mini-beast obviously!

Then it's pointless.

It has to be colder to be anything worthwhile for that time of year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Don't shoot the messenger, I'm just pointing out what the ensembles show....

Not having a go at you QS:)

Was just saying if it isn't as cold as this one then it can do one.. it'll just end up grey and cold:bad:

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Not having a go at you QS:)

Was just saying if it isn't as cold as this one then it can do one.. it'll just end up grey and cold:bad:

There's quite a few runs which have -10C hpa over the British Isles so they would still be snowy I reckon. Though yes, very hard to get decent coverings of snow by April (though still possible). I will be happier to see plumes or ridges of high pressure I think, the snow can return in November! :)

Edited by Quicksilver1989
  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

There's quite a few runs which have -10C hpa over the British Isles so they would still be snowy I reckon. Though yes, very hard to get decent coverings of snow by April (though still possible). I will be happier to see plumes or ridges of high pressure I think, the snow can return in November! :)

Slider lows wouldn't be bad too.. Anyway I fear we're going to wait a while now to see any warm weather.:nonono:

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Slider lows wouldn't be bad too.. Anyway I fear we're going to wait a while now to see any warm weather.:nonono:

I'd be happy enough just for it to be dry...so if the output suggests N/NE/E then at least it's better than an Atlantic influenced deluge. From what I've seen up to now, the models are suggesting a less than normal Atlantic driven spell at least for the reliable future...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We’re just about past the time when the Atlantic steamroller shouldn’t be too much trouble. Obviously storms can still brew, but much more likely to get northern blocking etc in April than December.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

We’re just about past the time when the Atlantic steamroller shouldn’t be too much trouble. Obviously storms can still brew, but much more likely to get northern blocking etc in April than December.

Yup, easterlies generally tend to dominate in April so with the cold over the continent I get a feeling April could also see temperatures well below average! In 2013 we were spared of that because the Atlantic woke up in the middle of the month. Alternatively we could get high pressure rolling in which is always welcome, 1984 was like this after a cold March.

Anyhow 06z ens still paint a cold picture, although less coherent northern blocking than the 00z. For some reason the 06z ensembles recently have been least keen on colder evolutions. Hmmm

image.thumb.png.13a158542436ed0a4a8ca86356d685ba.png Pretty noisy pattern at the moment

image.thumb.png.e48c26851bc457b37247065e380d28e4.png Rolling sum of the last 4 ensemble sets at each timestep, only obvious trend is a drop in the number of warmer solutions.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

deleted

Edited by SnowBorder

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Icon looks like it could easily develop to "Beast III - This time it's personal ".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Yuk!

The outputs are ghastly . I love cold weather and snow but draw the line at if only outputs !

You know perfect winter set ups which fail to deliver this late. At this stage of the season you need to keep setting the bar higher to get anything remotely worthwhile.

Unless some exceptional synoptics show up then I’m ready to wave goodbye to winter weather.

Unfortunately it’s never  that simple in spring . I very much like eastern Canadian winters where you often go from cold and snow to much warmer weather in the space of a few weeks and avoid the mediocrity in the middle ! 

Nick, I'm convinced we're going to get a third beast - there's still a lot of very cold air lurking to the north east.

We'll probably be limited to settling snow at night by then - could do with a few cold, low dew point days in the build up though.

Imagine we did get another cold spell - would surely be a March for the record books? 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

image.thumb.png.7c02950452537c67f4467823b8e45e3a.png

Afternoon, latest swingometer is similar to the 06zs, generally a colder then average picture for the last week of March. Some sharp, quick northerlies in there. Other thing to note is a few members toy with building heights to our North again. P10 gets pretty close to delivering another cold easterly....

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The jet stream again way south on the ECM for next Friday. Ps- if it’s still in this position come June this could be irreversible:D

8C339EAD-4214-4200-A376-B675DF16B0D1.jpeg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

delete

Edited by Matthew.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No change on the extended - both gefs and eps. note that the meto two weekend talks about another cold block to our ne. Signs on the eps that n scandi could see some higher slp as week 2 progresses - an Easter easterly has a nice alliterational ring to it!!

GEFS scream Greenland heights to me, possibly with the flow veering NE and ultimately may topple to scandi so of course E'ly possible, either way, blocking with cold enough for snow certainly not out of the question.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Matthew. said:

The jet stream again way south on the ECM for next Friday. Ps- if it’s still in this position come June this could be irreversible:D

8C339EAD-4214-4200-A376-B675DF16B0D1.jpeg

One would like to think that nature or odds choose either would have a way of balancing things out come summer we need balance in the force 😜

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Beast 3 ready to strike

image.thumb.png.b46edd37b3fa1e533910727ed41dfe79.pngimage.thumb.png.93fc6611338c87fe9ac76b88f0c812c7.png

This a recurring theme suggested by GFS over recent days and a reminder of the way it spotted the current mini Beast re-emergence from way out in FI to eventual fruition.

Who's dreaming of a white Easter?

And a white April anyone?

image.thumb.png.4fe118768307e98b62d795e777d53ff3.png

:D

 

Edited by Purga
  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is going to be more common as possible outcomes over the next few weeks if the jet stream does not recover from its Southerly track. It may even mean a colder Summer, especially if it stays South

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Purga said:

Beast 3 ready to strike

image.thumb.png.b46edd37b3fa1e533910727ed41dfe79.pngimage.thumb.png.93fc6611338c87fe9ac76b88f0c812c7.png

This a recurring theme suggested by GFS over recent days and a reminder of the way it spotted the current mini Beast re-emergence from way out in FI to eventual fruition.

Who's dreaming of a white Easter?

And a white April anyone?

image.thumb.png.4fe118768307e98b62d795e777d53ff3.png

:D

 

Come on we in the southeast, cold rain and sleet? :D 

It doesn't fill me with joy, although it is looking increasingly likely winter will pounce back with an northerly plunge near months end with return of severe frosts and wintry precip not necessarily restricted to the north and hills not looking good for gardeners. We do get potent northerly airstreams at this time of year much more than we do from the east, as we saw in 2008 in which there was cover all the way to south coast from a very active trough. Maybe ‘deep’ cold possible from northeast, as the pub run shows. If that pulled off then the ice age loony brigade would be wetting theirselves. We may be seeing a change from cluster of dire winters with solar minimum, so will make for interesting times / discussions I foresee. I have enjoyed reading mod thread immensely this winter, while there’s the less good that happens. 

Edited by Daniel*

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Similar Content

    • By Paul
      Here we go with a fresh hunt for cold thread as we move into a colder spell of weather and towards the end of Autumn.
      As this is a new thread for this season, there's perhaps been a bit of confusion over what does or doesn't fit in here. So to help out, and be transparent in terms of our moderation of the thread, these are the guidelines we're working to, so if everyone can aim to stay within them, happy days!
      This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:
      Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location. Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok. Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others) Hopefully this helps, if in doubt please ask a member of the team, and if you see a post you think may fall outside of these guidelines, please report it. 
      If you'd prefer a slower paced, more general (not cold slanted) model discussion, please head over to the general thread here.
      Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
    • By Paul
      A new thread as we move past the mid-point of Autumn..
      This thread is for more general model discussion - eg without the specific focus on the hunt for cold weather, which can be found in the hunt for cold model thread. As ever, please keep it to the models in here.
      Want to view the model outputs?
      You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
    • By Paul
      With winter approaching over the horizon, a lot of people's thoughts are turning to cold weather potential, but while that's fine, it's not everyone's cup of tea. So, we've started this thread for the cold hunting side of model discussion, with a general discussion thread also up and running for those who'd rather look at all other aspects of the model output.
      Despite the focus on cold weather potential in this thread, please do keep it to the model output. 
      Want to view the model outputs?
      You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
    • By DiagonalRedLine
      Greetings!
      A shiny new model thread for the new season to continue your discussions of the latest charts etc. 🍂🍁
      There looks to be a lot of wild weather to come in the next few days with further showers, heavy rain and blowy weather. As many have illustrated, some particular concerns about Sunday where models, such as the GFS, show a troublesome storm exploding over the U.K! However, since it’s still a few days away and with models showing varied solutions on the Low Pressure system’s track and power, there are still questions as to how bad it may actually be.

      Even before then, there’s a risk of gales at times with strong South-Westerly to Westerly winds.
      Please keep on topic in here sticking to the models and please keep things friendly. Rude and insulting behaviour is not tolerated! 🚫
      If your post contains moans, banter and ramps, expect it to either get deleted ❌ or moved into a more suitable thread. Would be ideal to keep any banter and moaning to a minimum, otherwise this would be a more suited thread for it (especially if it’s about Autumn): 
      But a bit of moans, banter and ramping is acceptable in here as longs as it still has a fair amount of sensible model chat and is not overdone.
      Additionally, we also have a Short Range Model Chat thread, which can be used to discuss charts within the short range (preferably around the 0 to 72 hour mark, but up to 5 days would still be okay).
      But you can still use this main model thread if you wish for short range discussions.
      Also, we have a Model Tweets thread for posting tweets about the models:
      ...and a Stratospheric Temperature watch thread for monitoring the temperatures and conditions within the Stratosphere:
      If you do post tweets about the models in this main model thread, then make sure you include some reasonable discussion of the models in your post as well, otherwise it may get moved to the Model Tweets thread.
      (Edit): Having said that, we have lots of different topics in this forum section you can take part in, not just the ones mentioned above. 🙂
      —————————
      Want to view the model outputs?
      You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR 
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
      (Link to previous thread):
      ——————————
      Thanks all!  
    • By Paul
      Please continue with the model discussion here, as we perhaps head towards the hottest spell of what has already been a rare, very dry, very warm summer?
      Please keep on topic in this thread, by only discussing the model output. This isn't the place to be discussing (or arguing) over weather preferences and the like, so please don't be tempted to go there! And as ever, please also keep it friendly...
      Want to view the model outputs?
      You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:
      GFS
      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
      NetWx-SR
      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Model Comparison
      Global Jet Stream
      Stratosphere
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×