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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

Paul

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Nice to see some cold potential later on the Ecm 12z and Gfs 12z with winter returning, the Gfs FI cold snap looks pretty impressive with plenty of snow around..hopefully the models will keep coldies interested through the rest of march!:)

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March 20th-

straight northerly, -10c uppers,

h850t850eu-3.thumb.png.d4d529a0037b0fc7f9edfc633da5f7e4.png

nationwide snow

prectypeuktopo-22.thumb.png.10696ab6069a16b2c4ac10188ba0da8e.png

and in other news...

pig3.thumb.jpg.a5772503ec08849625e53c385f09a042.jpg

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The ECM tonight does hold some interest for coldies especially further north .

The jet remains on a southerly track with several shortwaves running east , in terms of the weekend still a chance of some snow on the northern flank of the low for the far north .

Very hard to say at this range how far south the cold will come but if it makes it then one of those shortwaves could engage some colder air.

The ECM is less interested in any high pressure to the nw. It does seem a bit quick upstream given the positive PNA.

 

 

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Snow event somewhere from this channel runner at D9

0CC8CF0E-0373-4AEB-904A-A9F72F298BCC.thumb.gif.215aac44b7d51b36d98754616fc26b43.gifC6407DE0-7AC6-497A-A658-44657747DE3C.thumb.gif.bf71303c778eba3d9fe6452f8d5c966c.gif

None of that powdery nonsense either!

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Can't believe it's so quiet .Models want a amplified pattern .we might be cold within 10 days .

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19 minutes ago, cold snap said:

Can't believe it's so quiet .Models want a amplified pattern .we might be cold within 10 days .

It's so quiet because the models don't show any interest for coldies this week and any cold weather we get next week onwards will feel rubbish compared to what we have just had but there certainly is some interest in the 12z runs with possible arctic air incursions in FI.:) 

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23 minutes ago, cold snap said:

Can't believe it's so quiet .Models want a amplified pattern .we might be cold within 10 days .

I saw it too, I think we're just all exhausted after the last and absolutely fruit filled chase!!! Going to leave the models for another day or 2 and then come back. Have to remember what my family look like again!

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35 minutes ago, cold snap said:

Can't believe it's so quiet .Models want a amplified pattern .we might be cold within 10 days .

I do think we’ll see cold conditions by mid month but probable cold rain for many good for Scotland methinks. Although interspersed with some snow, for us in the south we need one of those channel runners.

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57 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Snow event somewhere from this channel runner at D9

0CC8CF0E-0373-4AEB-904A-A9F72F298BCC.thumb.gif.215aac44b7d51b36d98754616fc26b43.gifC6407DE0-7AC6-497A-A658-44657747DE3C.thumb.gif.bf71303c778eba3d9fe6452f8d5c966c.gif

None of that powdery nonsense either!

Erm....royalty cheque in the post I hope 😉

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49 minutes ago, cold snap said:

Can't believe it's so quiet .Models want a amplified pattern .we might be cold within 10 days .

The problem is it’s like staying in the Ritz and then being told you have to move out and into a Premier Inn! :D

Any colder conditions we might see develop towards the second half of the month are going to seem a bit meh compared to what’s been but there is still a chance of some snow more especially for the north .

 

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Totally agree Frosty.  As I said I have always known snow in mid March and April.  Even in mildest of winters.

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6 minutes ago, Winter80s said:

Totally agree Frosty.  As I said I have always known snow in mid March and April.  Even in mildest of winters.

Fingers crossed we will see more cold, as i said before, there is some interest for coldies, especially from the Gfs 12z for an impressive arctic incursion in the next few weeks..it's not towel throwing time yet!:D 

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168-777UK.GIF?05-12

It's an unreliable precipitation chart, but it hightlights some interesting elements to the upcoming pattern. The jetstream still looks like it wil stay south of the UK but neve rin a position to properly pull cold air over the UK, which usually leaves an unsettled picture with the south quite often seeing the wettest of the conditions with NW Scotland being one of the driest locations.

ECM ens reflect this

EDM1-144.GIF?05-0   EDM1-192.GIF?05-0   EDM1-240.GIF?05-0

Areas of low pressure tending to track through the UK instead of the traiditon path across Iceland and into Scandinavia. Still at this time of year snow is possible at times over the high ground in the north.

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There are some things it's not sensible to put lipstick on!  And the current output falls into that category if you're in the South.  Take GFS 12z, chart after chart of flabby lows dancing around the UK like some kind of demented washing machine, with the southerly jet stream and absence of any kind of blocking to the North:

gfs-0-42.png?12

gfs-0-90.png?12

gfs-0-180.png?12

And in between that, a more organised low on Sunday:

gfs-0-138.png?12

Cumulative precipitation in next 10 days courtesy GFS, thanks a bunch!

240-777UK.GIF?05-12

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Posted (edited)

Ec 46 maintains low heights and low slp around nw Europe. Presumably the se euro heights  won’t allow things to progress east to allow us to get onto the cold side in a sustained fashion. Of course with downwelling due, these patterns may need to be retrogressed from their current locales. As has been the mantra for a while now, little sign of spring save the odd day or so as the wind swings southerly ahead of the occasional depression taking a more northerly track or the Atlantic trough digs south to our west. 

The eps extended are still keen to have low heights and slp to our s/se so I wonder if we might see space for a wedge or flabby ridge to establish just to our north or northeast. 

Edited by bluearmy
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22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec 46 maintains low heights and low slp around nw Europe. Presumably the se euro heights  won’t allow things to progress east to allow us to get onto the cold side in a sustained fashion. Of course with downwelling due, these patterns may need to be retrogressed from their current locales. As has been the mantra for a while now, little sign of spring save the odd day or so as the wind swings southerly ahead of the occasional depression taking a more northerly track or the Atlantic trough digs south to our west. 

The eps extended are still keen to have low heights and slp to our s/se so I wonder if we might see space for a wedge or flabby ridge to establish just to our north or northeast. 

18z seems to be doing just that

 Flabby ridge helps move the pattern East bringing in a Northerly flow 

No sign of Spring warmth yet.

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Really complex Gfs 18z unfolding with troughs / trough disruption and some cold air in the mix with snow featuring at times, especially further north and I get the impression that there is real potential for arctic incursions if the main complex trough gets to the east of the uk as there is plenty of cold air to tap into if things work out..indeed this run turns into a snow fest during low res!:):cold-emoji:

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18z GEFS are a goer for Northern blocking establishing last 3rd of March and a significant cluster would probably deliver into april albeit they are a mess and nothing coherent.

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

18z GEFS are a goer for Northern blocking establishing last 3rd of March and a significant cluster would probably deliver into april albeit they are a mess and nothing coherent.

yes models seem to be sniffing out another cold spell. There have been hints in last few days so worth watching how it unfolds. These cold spells have been frequent since November so would not be surprised if there in a final sting in winters tail. Should be looking forward to spring now after our snow fix last week, and hopefully that will come sooner rather than later, however that would not stop me lamp post watching if another cold spell appears....

Edited by Bottled Snow
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No posts for 9 hours, what a difference to a week ago!

Anyway I posted on Sunday with my usual 500 mb anomaly charts. Little has changed on them since then, see below.

So my summation is, no marked warming up showing, obviously no deep cold from the east. Staying unsettled and temperatures at or below normal, even once the wintry weather in Scotland eases, even coldish at times. This possibility behind a surface low that the upper air flow may sporn at times.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

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Looks very quite on here since the latest cold spell. In the short to medium terms it looks very unsettled for the start of spring, with nothing particular mild temperature wise.

In the longer term, there is alot of divergence in the models. The GEM and ECM continues the chilly and unsettled theme. The GFS goes for some northern blocking towards the end of its run, with a cold northerly set up. NASA and ARPEGE go for milder temperatures coming from the south, but still very much unsettled.

IMG_2210.GIF

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Although no return to deep cold showing at present ,the models do show Low after low Dumping down i feel high amounts of rain ,with always the potential for northern snow depending on the tracks of these lows .Yes very quiet on here ,but i,v got a feeling that more noticeable higher pressure could start to show soon ,probably around the north Atlantic area ,which a few models are hinting at ,just noticed another Poster got in before me ,here we go I Think johnholmes is rallying the troops ,cheers gang :cold::yahoo:.

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Morning all :)

Less interest it seems in the model discussion forum these days but no less interesting to see the proposed evolution. This morning I'm looking at where the models suggest we might be on Friday March 16th:

Starting as always with ECM 00Z OP at T+240:

ECM1-240.GIF?06-12

LP very much in charge with the jet still running to the south of the British Isles. One centre has crossed southern England and is now moving east over north Germany leaving a cold NW'ly airflow with uppers below -4 so a cold showery spell with a secondary feature to the far NW and a new LP developing in the Atlantic and mocing wast toward the British Isles. Weather would be cold and showery for me with snow to low ground in the north and higher ground generally.

GEM 00Z OP at T+240:

gem-0-240.png?00

A broad but complex trough covers the North Atlantic and much of North West Europe. There are a number of separate LP centres including one in the North Sea. The south of Britain is in a light WNW'ly airflow but light winds prevail elsewhere. The weather would be cold and unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain. It's worth noting the Azores HP is starting to put in an appearance promising something milder albeit only a transient ridge for now.

GFS 00Z OP at T+240:

gfs-0-240.png

Another complex trough in charge with the main LP centre just to the south of the British Isles moving east with a second centre to the NE of Scotland. A NW'ly airflow for western parts but light winds elsewhere, Rain to the south, more showery further north. Uppers are broadly positive in the south and east but colder air is spreading from the west and north west. Further into FI and it's all change as heights build from the NW dropping into Scandinavia and intensifying and from the SW as the Azores HP tries to ridge north. Between these two features the trough is forced NW-SE across the British Isles and into Europe. Ultimately, the trough disrupts to the west leaving an E'ly flow for southern and south eastern areas with uppers falling below -4.

GFS 00Z Control at T+240:

gens-0-1-240.png

Not too different to the OP in all honesty. The Control does try to lift the Azores HP north toward the British Isles but the Atlantic is too strong and the very end of FI on Control looks an interesting direction.

The 00Z GEFS at T+240:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

Not much spread so general agreement the LP will be in charge. Some members pull the LP centre further east or south drawing in colder N'ly or E'ly air-flows respectively but the majority call is to have the LP over or very close to the British Isles. Further into FI and the signal for heights from both north and south is quite strong - a number of members try to build a mid-Atlantic ridge, others bring the Azores HP north so it's one to watch.

In conclusion, it's an unsettled and often cold outlook toward the end of next week with LP close to the British isles bringing in plenty of rain and showers, the wettest weather reserved for the south and south west:

240-777UK.GIF?06-0

There will be milder interludes, no question, especially as LP approaches and we get a brief feed of warmer air but, and especially so for the north, colder conditions look set to dominate - nothing like last week but below March average values. Moving past mid month into the final third of March and hints aplenty of a change with the LP dissipating and heights rising to both north and south. Whether that leads to a spring like spell dominated by the Azores HP or whether northern heights will prolong the wintry feel up to Easter remains to be seen at this very early stage. The battle of the colder and warmer air-masses continues.

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The ECM mean chart for mid March is pretty much as it has been for days:

ec-ens_nat_mslstd_mslmean_hres-msl_20180

The clusters suggest it does not hide any wild variations in potential patterns

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018030600_360.

So just a bog-standard wet period looks like extending well into March, average temperatures at best, just a small chance of the Azores High making a resurgence later on but wouldn't hold your breath. Spring well and truly on hold, and winter pretty much gone too.

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GFS 06z reoccurring thing in low res towards mid month wanting to put spring on hold and give us one last taste of winter as been said before traditionally more likely to get a white Easter than a white Christmas 

C.S

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