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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

Paul

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Some warmer air pushing in at t168 on ECM 12z t192 isn't quite as warm before warmer air moves into the south again at t216

ECM0-168.thumb.GIF.03ff3caad2f0c79280d76395bd1cbf5d.GIFECM0-192.thumb.GIF.5d97197b3f391f510ade484107705c48.GIFECM0-216.thumb.GIF.63af10722c0fbf9db21d2c7e9effda59.GIF

Brians charts also show this :wink:

168_mslp850uk.thumb.png.be73ddc5ad2dfffe82663afe7eaf157a.png192_mslp850uk.thumb.png.b9da393edc8413c34ee95991ee5e6d1c.png216_mslp850uk.thumb.png.5d454caf953077effb47f4d5b4e527a2.png

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Really nice end to tonights ECM with warm air drifting up from Europe

ECMOPEU12_240_2.thumb.png.ecf06830d163a9ca98618fe8a9d4f326.png240_mslp850uk.thumb.png.a294b000929da1fca31761860a0b6d8f.png

:)

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Nice to have some warm charts to ramp up seeing as I'm just a ramper!..:D..seriously though it's good to see some proper spring warmth on the Ecm 12z.:)

144_thickuk.png

144_mslp850.png

168_mslp850.png

168_thickuk.png

216_mslp850.png

216_thickuk.png

240_mslp850.png

240_thickuk.png

240_mslp850uk.png

BRAND_SMILEY_MAIN.jpg

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ECM mean at T192, good agreement on a warm up from the ESE, I think

EDM0-192.GIF?06-0

EDM1-192.GIF?06-0

Thats not to say any of this will be dry, small steps to decent spring weather.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM mean at T192, good agreement on a warm up from the ESE, I think

EDM0-192.GIF?06-0

EDM1-192.GIF?06-0

 

Indeed, and plenty of mild / pleasantly warm temps before T+192 too.:)

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted (edited)

A look at the 2m temps from ECM showing the warmth moving through Germany, Holland, Belgium & Eastern France and towards the UK as we get to the end of next week and into the following week

ECMWF_150_EU_T2M_en-US_eu.thumb.png.97aef961a005849e086d399be22d9296.pngECMWF_174_EU_T2M_en-US_eu.thumb.png.025cd3b5a5739c0c09c9f2557f1b08c7.png

ECMWF_198_EU_T2M_en-US_eu.thumb.png.602ef03ef787843d22a5d528770b2b61.pngECMWF_222_EU_T2M_en-US_eu.thumb.png.0731dc27a4900131ed6b47abd6bef342.png

ECMWF_240_EU_T2M_en-US_eu.thumb.png.3d2ebc6dde6a30d6484190684720730c.png

:)

Edited by Summer Sun
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Yes some warmth coming in over the next few days as the main part of the jet eases north.The warmer uppers and a stronger sun having their effect but it is also looking showery for many.

gfs-1-96.png?18

The UK and W Europe though still under the influence of an upper trough with plenty of showers and areas of rain showing up over the coming week,

gfs-2-72.png?18gfs-2-96.png?18gfs-0-120.png?18

Those images above are just some from the GFS 18z run but they look typical for many in the coming days.Pretty standard April weather i would say.

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Posted (edited)

The 7-day forecast mean again shows nothing worse than average for the UK with the vast majority a bit above average, however, the eastern side is likely to see 2 or 3 days where temps struggle to make it into double digits

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.982799243765289d3cc90ae1f68be78e.pngukmaxtemp1.thumb.png.4cff33d3b91ef3a9fdabcf9b70636456.pngukmaxtemp2.thumb.png.9e7b7e868a154bff2c24218108fa6c64.pngukmaxtemp3.thumb.png.eb7a89406d22a824bc312ab38aedc7a7.png

Towards the end of next week, we see the flow switching more south to southeasterly which helps the warmth travel further north again

ukmaxtemp4.thumb.png.aa5f73700eb1542d6816df9d982fff39.pngukmaxtemp5.thumb.png.6a6b802adace9f4efed50f147fe2dce5.pngukmaxtemp6.thumb.png.48610e55eb2463765a7830877b120dd9.pngukmaxtemp7.thumb.png.d56457fd05a55a2139448baa1d0ef5dc.pngANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.5d8c50677ade00f338a2a74b42dfc789.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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The dreaded flow off the N Sea. Unless you have lived in any place affected by this I doubt you realise how thoroughly unpleasant this can be. Day after day of dreary skies and a nagging cold breeze. 

Yuk

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16 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

The dreaded flow off the N Sea. Unless you have lived in any place affected by this I doubt you realise how thoroughly unpleasant this can be. Day after day of dreary skies and a nagging cold breeze. 

Yuk

Tell me about it John ,having lived either right on the coast in Sunderland or these days in Newcastle, a depressing easterly can last for days in spring with a cold wind and totally overcast skies and of course the wind accentuates the cold. Look west one can often see brightness towards the west and then hearing about the comparative warmth to the west only makes it worse.

 

 

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28 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

The dreaded flow off the N Sea. Unless you have lived in any place affected by this I doubt you realise how thoroughly unpleasant this can be. Day after day of dreary skies and a nagging cold breeze. 

Yuk

Yes John, The windchill mid-day charts for Wed/Thur speak volumes.

222.thumb.png.7b0bf4ece52c175505fd49ee6d098187.png111.thumb.png.77fd1b2d1a0f2633598fcaa01bf50ec4.png

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2 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:

Yes John, The windchill mid-day charts for Wed/Thur speak volumes.

222.thumb.png.7b0bf4ece52c175505fd49ee6d098187.png111.thumb.png.77fd1b2d1a0f2633598fcaa01bf50ec4.png

Yuk, not a good day for golf either of them, coffee and a bacon buttie in the cafe perhaps?

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Posted (edited)
On 01/04/2018 at 20:53, Frosty. said:

Depends which model you're looking at, the Ecm 12z would be a lot warmer than 14c next saturday, at least further south / southeast!:D

144_mslp850uk.png

144_thickuk.png

144_mslp850.png

2

Spot on Karl 19.4c in Gravesend today warmest day of the year so far and the 2nd highest temp since October 25th in the UK

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Spot on Karl 19.4c in Gravesend today warmest day of the year so far and the 2nd highest temp since October 25th in the UK

Only 10C in Darlington today though? And it looks quite chilly and cloud for most of next week.. not really good at all for those us in the east, probably feeling more like November than April. Hopefully it will get warmer towards the end of the next week.

Edited by cheese

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Spot on Karl 19.4c in Gravesend today warmest day of the year so far and the 2nd highest temp since October 25th in the UK

When the latest date 70f or 21 c been reached,might be in threat here seeing gfs want to bring colder air back,ok fl at the moment ,with charts people would be screaming at in the winter months.

 

where is everyone another Easterly about the third one since end of feb,and nobody talking how significant that is .

very poor that posters just give up posting,because it rarely snow in spring,yet last week of April is a know cold spell.

 

only Sumer Sun and frosty bother posting all year round 

Respect u guys 

 

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7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

When the latest date 70f or 21 c been reached,might be in threat here seeing gfs want to bring colder air back,ok fl at the moment ,with charts people would be screaming at in the winter month

The latest 21c day on record was 31st May in 1983!

 

The average first 21c is usually in early to mid April.

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Some fairly significant warmth for the likes of Germany and Poland during next week the UK could easily tap into this if we get the right flow later next week

ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.924560baea5525c4ca45df9c0a2394f0.png

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Posted (edited)

Well it looks now as though the pattern in 6 days time will be mild south easterlies.  Here's the 12s at T144

gfs-0-144.png?12

UW144-21.GIF?07-18

icon-0-144.png?07-12

But the high is far too far away to bring decent spring weather, showers and sunshine is my expectation (know those two words are usually put the other way round, but I think trading standards requires you to put the most significant one first?!) or am I confusing that with cake ingredients?  

Could see some thunderstorms maybe, as well.

Edited by Mike Poole
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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS setting up another easterly

GFSOPEU12_240_1.thumb.png.d9f86b99d227da7e0e0d61d8bf0a93a3.pngGFSOPEU12_240_2.thumb.png.1c6ef0ad07cdb01a23854c3374f40cd9.png

GFSOPEU12_288_1.thumb.png.104b31c47fb2d7f5360b5704023cdb6e.pngGFSOPEU12_288_2.thumb.png.54583a893fbe35ed17ca56e0a63ce35a.png

 

Well,that may be so, but this GFS run has a gambolling yellow lamb coming in from the east at T228, hardly think this is any kind of cold easterly!

gfs-1-228.png?12

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It's not often you see below average temps so widely across Spain and Portugal at this time of year similarly it's not often you see it so much above average around Germany and Poland in early to mid-April

ANOM2m_mean_europe.thumb.png.0ffc9cdbfe7cb2c18b3d180f00e0acbb.png

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Posted (edited)

ECM at T216 draws sucks the warmth in from the south, long overdue, hello spring proper!

ECM0-216.GIF?07-0

ECM1-216.GIF?07-0

Edit, adding T240 charts:

ECM0-240.GIF?07-0

ECM1-240.GIF?07-0

Edited by Mike Poole
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Sensational end to ECM 12z

192_mslp850uk.thumb.png.aed5c9c0a50b33716570ad206c819daa.png216_mslp850uk.thumb.png.5276144717dbf14a72707b4cbdcb0f28.png240_mslp850uk.thumb.png.5eb3b7130743950224cecee5306d0094.png

Spring we have lift off

giphy.gif

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Posted (edited)

Not normally a fan of ensemble mean charts 10 days away, but the ECM ensemble mean is really interesting at T 240

EDM0-240.GIF?07-0

EDM1-240.GIF?07-0

For charts of the average of the perturbatations, these look to present quite a strong signal giving a good chance of warmth from the south to come, I think.

Edited by Mike Poole

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