Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

[Purga]

Pretty strong support fron the 12z GEFS for a cooooold.... weekend.

[MattStoke]

Wasn't the UKMO less keen on the easterly than the ECM and GFS last time?

[Mucka]

JMA 

[bluearmy]

12 minutes ago, Nick L said:

This evening's EC brings a snow event for the entirety of England and Wales on Saturday night. Good grief.

both the 00z and 12z show most of England and wales with appreciable snow cover by T168 (and whilst maxes on Monday would be 3-5c, dp's remain sub zero so no melt in the shade.  far too detailed, I know. i'm taking solace in the fact that ukmo day 6 has been pretty inconsistent this past week ..........

[Coopsy]

deleted 

Edited March 12, 2018 by c00ps
Sorry thought I was in the SE thread

[SMU]

Yep the initial positioning of the JMA is slightly different - but well within the cone

[ICE COLD]

ECM 192 still cold.

Edited March 13, 2018 by reef
Removed reference to member

[Cheshire Freeze]

We remain well on the cold side of the HP out to day 8...so even though days would feel pleasant enough in the sun, some harsh overnight frosts are possible

[nick sussex]

Snow then some nice sledging weather . What’s not to like about the ECM 12 hrs run so far . 

 

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We remain well on the cold side of the HP out to day 8...so even though days would feel pleasant enough in the sun, some harsh overnight frosts are possible

raw data on this run takes dp's positive down e England T180 in assoc with a small warm sector dropping sw.. whilst they drop off again tues, maxes are around 6c! T192. that sun is the same strength as last third week sept !!

[Summer Sun]

The shower risk should gradually ease after the weekend once the high moves further west still cold under it but the strong sunshine now will help during the day's with sharp frosts still overnight

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

raw data on this run takes dp's positive down e England T180 in assoc with a small warm sector dropping sw.. whilst they drop off again tues, maxes are around 6c! T192. that sun is the same strength as last third week sept !!

Damn sun!

Can someone turn it down a couple of notches?

[winterof79]

Sweet mean at 144

Edited March 12, 2018 by winterof79

[blizzard81]

19 hours ago, Paul_1978 said:

Been off the forum for a few days so apologies if I have missed something, but how does what is happening now in March bode well for next winter which is 9 months away?

Sorry for the late reply. Been busy. In answer to your question, just going on some thorough historical analysis. 

[Purga]

Yes -  a few more nice sunny / frosty days after the snowy blast.

There's even the possibility of a renewed easterly at 240hrs if the UK High gets drawn up towards the Siberian / Scandi High.

Stranger things have happened at sea!

Edited March 12, 2018 by Purga

[Captain Shortwave]

This cold pool is smaller and more acute, this is good and bad in different aspects. The longvitiy will liekly be less unless we can retrograde the high west enough to pull the winds down from the north with a trough developing to our east which could be very potent if the pattern sets up in the correct way, otherwise it looks like the high could settle close to the UK with overnight frosts.

The good aspect is the more acute cold pool looks likely to form an area of low pressure over northern France which brings the risk of persistent snow moving out of the continent which would bring a widespread snow event. The ECM runs a low from northern Italy WNW during Saturday which sits close to SW England by Sunday lunchtime.

   

ECM pretty much settled next week with hopefully some good sunny spells, there would be a thaw but a steady one with hopefully some respite from the rather large amounts of rain which have followed the last cold spell.

Edited March 12, 2018 by Captain Shortwave

[blizzard81]

Ecm delivers THE  perfect easterly. This translates to the widespread snow during late Saturday. More widespread than a couple of weeks ago due to the perfect orientation of the scandi high this time around. Let's hope the ecm is correct. 

[phil nw.]

Remarkable output from the ECM this evening. Uppers as low as - 13c into the east at day 5.  

Considering the time of year all I can say is wow!

Edited March 12, 2018 by phil nw.

[nick sussex]

At some point we’re going to be combatting ever increasing solar energy but if the ECM run verifies at least  the cold season goes out in a blaze of glory .

Theres still a chance that the cold could be extended if the jet cuts back more sw and brings that next chunk of deeper cold with it but if that doesn’t happen at least March would have delivered some notable cold weather.

Lets hope the UKMO will come on board in the morning.

Edited March 12, 2018 by nick sussex

[Eastnorthwest]

On 10/03/2018 at 23:23, Eastnorthwest said:

Even better it's just off the east coast by T 165 which hopefully with the time frame won't change much  on next few GFS runs

00Z run more or less same as previous run showing same easterly being replaced by NE Easterly by T 240

Very encouraging for coldies ,next 2 days crucial to more or less nail it

[Bristawl Si]

37 minutes ago, Nick L said:

This evening's EC brings a snow event for the entirety of England and Wales on Saturday night. Good grief.

They think it's all over! It is......

NOT!!

[Eastnorthwest]

Just now, Eastnorthwest said:

00Z run more or less same as previous run showing same easterly being replaced by NE Easterly by T 240

Very encouraging for coldies ,next 2 days crucial to more or less nail it

1 of the 2 days gone and boy how positive the models are tonight ,also the AO isn't showing any real positivity yet so still all good for cold lovers,one more day of caution then it'll be start looking to where the snow might fall and looking for troughs and streamers 

[Come rain snow or shine]

3 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

They think it's all over! It is......

NOT!!

 

lol. March/April '66 were nippy

[Frosty.]

Another Beasterly on the way..yay..After the beast, what next?..maybe another beast!..the Ecm 12z looks great for the coming weekend..beyond that, things could change in terms of longevity / reloads etc..I'm a happy coldie as you can probably tell

[chris55]

With the forecast Synoptics some spring snowfall looks a real possibility for many lowland areas of the UK.

We do need to distinguish between deep winter cold and deep spring cold though, and with the seasons changing and the sun strengthening expectations need to be representative of the season.

For me personally the joy of snow is in the waiting, the watching and then the sledging.....(but more realistically the early morning walk with the dog on the fresh snow) 

Once that's done I'm happy and at this time of year, even with sensational Synoptics, the season will dictate a less extreme, but still fantastic spell.

heres hoping we get to test out the prognosis:)